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Gavin P
16 July 2016 14:51:06


 


Old style seems now to be living at http://beta.wetterzentrale.de/


New style is at http://www.wetterzentrale.de/


 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Has anybody managed to find the direct links to the new charts yet?


This is a direct link to the old style charts (for example)


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn061.gif


I assume at some point soon these charts will be discontinued so would be useful to know what the direct link is to the new charts. I've been playing around with various combinations of gif, html, png, etc, plus replacing (old) with (new) at the start of the link but so far not been able to find them. 


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Gavin D
16 July 2016 17:01:38

Mid 20's possible again next weekend in parts of the south and SE



DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
16 July 2016 19:48:34

Fax charts looking very thundery and widely so on Wed - though the locla MetO forecast has it dry for Chichester all week!


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gusty
16 July 2016 21:29:39

The focus for thundery activity still appears to affect more western areas of the UK. 


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
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Gusty
16 July 2016 21:38:04

I'm glad I read the models before reading some of the tosh in here.


A fairly stable outlook for the south after the midweek potential thundery interlude. An extension of high pressure indicates a continuation of the largely settled theme for the foreseeable.


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


Nothing too troubling for the north either in the semi reliable timeframe and certainly nothing conducive to a 'write off' 


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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picturesareme
17 July 2016 00:11:34

BBC weather 24 Tomas shakinfinakh has 32C 90f for parts of the south on Tuesday ☀️😉

Gavin D
17 July 2016 07:55:11

NAVGEM shows a high of 32c on Tuesday with 40c quite widespread inland for France


navgemfr-8-60.png?17-08


Wednesday is now shown to be hotter than Tuesday with a high of 36C / 96.8F


navgemfr-8-84.png?17-07


Thursday sees the heat continuing in the south with a high of 29c


navgemfr-8-108.png?17-08


Friday and Saturday see temps slightly low peaking in the mid 20's


navgemfr-8-132.png?17-07navgemfr-8-156.png?17-08


By Sunday they could be on the up again with a high of 27c


navgemfr-8-180.png?17-08


Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
17 July 2016 08:32:32

The NAVGEM model is completely crazy and not to be taken remotely seriously. I still have on my old computer a desktop background from 2 July last year a NAVGEM forecast of 42C for the UK!


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
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SJV
17 July 2016 08:54:39


The NAVGEM model is completely crazy and not to be taken remotely seriously. I still have on my old computer a desktop background from 2 July last year a NAVGEM forecast of 42C for the UK!


Originally Posted by: Col 


It might only be overstating things by a couple of degrees this time though  What with the breakdown being modelled further west, the hot uppers stay over the eastern half of the UK for that little bit longer. You never know, we might squeeze out a 35C on Wednesday 


Certainly a lovely summery week coming up 

Charmhills
17 July 2016 08:55:10


The NAVGEM model is completely crazy and not to be taken remotely seriously. I still have on my old computer a desktop background from 2 July last year a NAVGEM forecast of 42C for the UK!


Originally Posted by: Col 


Indeed.


One for the bin!


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Bolty
17 July 2016 09:11:18

Yeah the NAVGEM is a pretty crap model. I don't think any forecasting agency uses it with any kind of seriousness. It can be fun to look at it for it's ridiculous predictions, but don't ever rely on it lol.


Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
The Beast from the East
17 July 2016 09:45:08


 


 


Certainly a lovely summery week coming up 


Originally Posted by: SJV 


Anything over 30 becomes unpleasant and horrible and sweaty and smelly in my book. Not looking forward to this week. At least I don't have to travel on public transport this week


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Solar Cycles
17 July 2016 09:58:02


 


Anything over 30 becomes unpleasant and horrible and sweaty and smelly in my book. Not looking forward to this week. At least I don't have to travel on public transport this week


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Anything over 25c does really, great when you're sat in the pool with a cocktail on holiday but bloody awful when stuck in an office with no air conditioning.

idj20
17 July 2016 10:15:58


Anything over 25c does really, great when you're sat in the pool with a cocktail on holiday but bloody awful when stuck in an office with no air conditioning.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 



One of those weeks where I'm still glad to be no longer working in a tomato greenhouses.

Indeed, looks like being a hot and sultry start to the week, at least for this end. A risk of a thundery breakdown on Wednesday - but being said in low confidence as far as my area is concerned as the models are showing the thundery stuff occurring to the north and west of the UK and/or bypassing to my south east (staying over the near continent). Then the rest of the week and into the weekend does look like being "pleasantly mild and settled" by being dry with sunny breaks as winds veer back in from the west.


Folkestone Harbour. 
Hungry Tiger
17 July 2016 10:35:22



NAVGEM shows a high of 32c on Tuesday with 40c quite widespread inland for France


navgemfr-8-60.png?17-08


Wednesday is now shown to be hotter than Tuesday with a high of 36C / 96.8F


navgemfr-8-84.png?17-07


Thursday sees the heat continuing in the south with a high of 29c


navgemfr-8-108.png?17-08


Friday and Saturday see temps slightly low peaking in the mid 20's


navgemfr-8-132.png?17-07navgemfr-8-156.png?17-08


By Sunday they could be on the up again with a high of 27c


navgemfr-8-180.png?17-08



Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


:-O


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Phil G
17 July 2016 11:06:38
What was violent storm potential in a couple of days time looks almost nailed on now. I expect that specifics are not nailed on though, so a chance these storms could pop up almost anywhere.
Could be some headline making weather coming up and expect Estofex warnings to be published tomorrow at some point.
schmee
17 July 2016 17:44:25
Like the latest on wetterzantrale
Ecm gfs show the potential heat storm and possibly more heat and sunshine. Some Sticky times ahead quite possible.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
SJV
17 July 2016 18:02:24

Pretty much perfect GFS 12z today. After the 'breakdown' late Tues/Weds, high pressure re-asserts itself and stays in some form or another right to the end of the run 

Gavin D
17 July 2016 18:45:41

NAVGEM is still going for the mid 30's on Wednesday


navgemfr-8-72.png?17-20


30c possible again on Thursday


navgemfr-8-96.png?17-19


Mid 20's Friday before another surge towards the high 20's for Saturday then back to the mid 20's Sunday


navgemfr-8-120.png?17-20navgemfr-8-144.png?17-20navgemfr-8-168.png?17-20


Bolty
17 July 2016 18:53:07
Fantastic run from the GFS this evening! It has the Azores High quickly building in behind the Spanish plume and holding it close-to/over the UK right until the end of the run, which of course is the beginning of August at this time frame.

Would be a very interesting July of two halves if that was to happen...
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
David M Porter
17 July 2016 19:40:58

Fantastic run from the GFS this evening! It has the Azores High quickly building in behind the Spanish plume and holding it close-to/over the UK right until the end of the run, which of course is the beginning of August at this time frame.

Would be a very interesting July of two halves if that was to happen...

Originally Posted by: Bolty 



We will have to hope that the GFS 12z is the beginning of a trend towards something generally better for the latter part of July. I'll be keeping a close eye on tomorrow's GFS runs to see if they follow in a similar vein. Let's hope so!


FWIW, tonight's UKMO doesn't look too shabby either. ECM not so good, but tomorrow's runs will be interesting.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
golfingmad
17 July 2016 19:48:06

Fantastic run from the GFS this evening! It has the Azores High quickly building in behind the Spanish plume and holding it close-to/over the UK right until the end of the run, which of course is the beginning of August at this time frame.

Would be a very interesting July of two halves if that was to happen...

Originally Posted by: Bolty 


 


Certainly a great run from GFS, but ECM perhaps not so enthusiastic, with low pressure not far away from the north toward the end of the run. Still, things are looking better than of late, and the general trend is one of improvement.


Could be an interesting summer of 'two halves'. We are long overdue a good August - we can only hope!


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
colin46
17 July 2016 20:20:11
Roll on Winter!
shine on you crazy diamond
192.104 m / 630.262 feet ASL
Crepuscular Ray
17 July 2016 22:07:39



NAVGEM is still going for the mid 30's on Wednesday


navgemfr-8-72.png?17-20


30c possible again on Thursday


navgemfr-8-96.png?17-19


Mid 20's Friday before another surge towards the high 20's for Saturday then back to the mid 20's Sunday


navgemfr-8-120.png?17-20navgemfr-8-144.png?17-20navgemfr-8-168.png?17-20



Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Only for the SE of the UK though. Normal for the rest of us 😉


Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
bledur
18 July 2016 04:48:14

Latest BBC weather week ahead says no mention of high temps beyond Thursday. Down to average from then well into next week with weak fronts crossing west to east

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