Here's the Week Ahead Forecast video: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/forecasts.html


 
Here's the Written Thoughts: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html


 
Starting stormy. Becoming hot (in the south) with a risk of thunderstorms.
 
Tomorrow I've got the final seasonal model round-up for Autumn 2016 + A new update that I'm currently working on and will tell you more about later.
 
Thanks as always for your supports and to Brian and the Mods. 
 
Edit: Here's the third and final seasonal model round-up for Autumn 2016: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/autumn-2016-forecast.php
 

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Cheers as always Mr GP. Seems that summer isn't quite done with us despite the current Autumnal look and feel about things.

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Thank You Gavin for the update... Taste of Autumn today as a reminder of what is to come...  

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^^^^^^

Thanks both!

Here's the third and final seasonal model round-up for Autumn 2016;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Autumn 2016 forecast will be released next week.

Later today I'm doing something a bit different. I'm going to have an "interpretation" of the ECMWF seasonal model for Winter 16/17.

That will be this afternoon sometime.

The Autumn 2016 seasonal model round-up will be placed on the Autumn updates page later with a written summary for anybody that can't watch the video.

Have a great day all.

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Thanks Gavin.
An interesting week ahead.

Thanks again Gav, milder as head into the business end of the season then.

^^^^^

Thanks SC! 

Looks like it, but we haven't released our Autumn forecast yet (thats next week)

Have added the final seasonal model round-up for Autumn 2016 on to Autumn updates page with a written summary if you can't watch the video.

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/autumn-2016-forecast.php

I've alsio done an interpretation of the ECMWF seasonal model update for Winter 16/17 which you can find here:

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/ecmwf-seasonal-model-forecast-interpretation.php

And with that we're done for the weekend!  

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Thanks gav fantastic work as always IN need of some prolonged rain here been bone dry for the last 2 months,  not complaining tho,

ROLL ON WINTER  

Thanks once again Gav. It seems a strange set up and with such a strong height anomaly towards Greenland I would expect any mid Atlantic ridge to be sucked into that big anomaly allowing for a lowering of heights over the Med perhaps?

Many thanks Gavin

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Thanks Gavin, great stuff. 

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Many thanks for passing on news of your coup in getting a look at the outcome of the ECM runs for next winter.

I like your conclusion: "Also, what the model is clearly not suggesting this month, is the "flat" pattern of zonal, Atlantic driven westerlies that we've had over the past three winters."

That sounds like a fair assessment of what you've described - weakly positive height anomalies in the mid-Atlantic and negative height anomalies over central and north-eastern Europe. At least we can expect one or two periods of anticipating, or even experiencing, some weather from the direction of Scandinavia, instead of the continuation of an Atlantic autumn which the last two or three winters have brought.

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