Almost two days of rain - heavy rain followed by drizzle and persistent rain today and now heavy rain again! Utterly dire! - Mild & wet!

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For quite a while now, there has been a lot of talk about us going into a much more unsettled weather pattern with the likelihood that February would end up being much wetter than what we have used to during this winter so far. However, the question which I have to ask is where on Earth is this "unsettled" weather that everyone has been talking about, since I'm still seeing absolutely no signs of that here in Edinburgh where I live. We did have one wet day last Saturday, but that came at the end of a very long dry spell and one wet day on its own is never going to be enough to break what could still be a potential drought situation as we head futher into the year towards the summer.

We were supposed to get some rain on Tuesday, but we got absolutely nothing from that system other than a few spots of rain during the previous night and a few lightish showers during that afternoon which didn't really come to anything. We were then supposed to get some rain this morning, but we have nothing from that so far and the latest radar map isn't even showing any signs of that here as I write. On top of that, subsequent low pressure systems after that now look set to take a more southerly track.

From what I can see, the best chance of us getting any rain might come on Saturday as the first of those low pressure systems swings northwards towards us but even with that, the forecast maps which I have seen so far are still not showing very high rainfall totals for here, even on that day. Beyond that, it looks as though high pressure might build across Scandinavia. There is a question mark about whether this might lead us into a colder pattern, and the fact that we have just had a SSW event might possibility make that a slightly better possibility than what we have seen so far this winter. However, there has been too many times where the models have shown the possibility of a Scandy High only for that to never happen, that I can't really trust that either even with that SSW event.

So far whenever a Scandy High has been indicated to form, it has always been too far south to deliver any cold weather here which has meant that most of that cold weather has gone into southern Europe and although some of that did extend into the south of England during January, we have always still been left in that milder Atlantic air mass, and it wouldn't surprise me if that is what ended up happening again, given the way that this winter has gone so far. Whether we actually get that Scandy High or not though, the fact that high pressure is likely to be nearby and influencing our weather will reduce that risk of rain which is being shown just now.

That means that sepite all of the take about a pattern change and something more interesting coming up, it is now looking as though month will probably end up once again with that same old story, of the usual mild dross and very little actually happening and to me, it is a bit like having to sit through a football match which was built up to be a really big and exciting game, only for that to end up as a really dull and boring no-scoring draw and quite frankly, it is far more exciting watching paint dry than watching our weather just now. We used to say that one of the interesting aspects of our weather comes from the fact that it is constantly changing.

However, recent experience appears to be showing that in that part of the world at least, this hardly ever seems to be the case any more.

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We've had damp, grey nothingness for days but a breeze is getting up now. A bit of snow is needed to give a bit of sparkle. We'll probably get it on 21st February when I go away. It usually starts just before we drive to the airport and has thawed by the time we get back!  Sod's law!  

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Still no rain here and for anyone looking to quell any possibilities of a summer drouight later on this year, this period has been quite a massive letdown in that part of the world because it seems as though no matter what the synoptics throw at us just now, we are always going to get that same old mild, grey and boring nothingness which we have throughout this winter, and which we also got for a good part of last summer as well.

Having said that though, it is now quite a lot windier than what it was earlier on and I have noticed that the rainfall which was forecast for this part of the world on Saturday has been upgraded a bit, and brought forward to later on tomorrow night as it appears as though that low pressure system might end up turning northwards a bit quicker than what was previously expected.

Meanwhile, Gary Nicholson at Weatherweb.net has also suggested that this system could come back at us a bit from the east during Sunday, although tonight's Week Ahead forecast wasn't in agreement with that, and has that rain staying out to the east of us. However, my main gripe here tonight is with the temperatures. Throughout this winter, we have often had people like Richard from Aberdeen complaining about the temperature being stuck at something like 3C both by day and by night in their neck of the woods, with the result that there is very little or no frost.

However, what we are seeing here in Edinburgh just now, is the same sort of thing but at a much higher temperature still which in my books, makes that a lot worse at this time of year. During today, we had quite a balmy 12C but even with that, the temperature still hasn't got down to below 11C (and that is at coming up for 11pm as I write) which for this time of year is absolutely ridiculous when you consider that I have seen cooler nights than that, even in the middle of summer.

Were it not for the fact that the SSW event which has just occurred could be about to rescue our winter (and there isn't even any guarantees that this will happen), I would therefore pretty much have to say that our so-called winter is probably over for another year, not that we have had much of a winter in this neck of the woods anyway.

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Very windy tonight. It's been a while since I last heard that distinctive howling and the house rattling!

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Finally, we have managed to get some rain here in Edinburgh, Halleluyah!! We actually had quite a heavy shower during the early part of this morning which ended yet another fairly lengthy dry spell which with the exception of those few very light and drizzly showers on Tuesday, had extended all the way back to last Saturday. That didn't last long though, and it then become nice and sunny for most of the day after that until it eventually clouded over during the afternoon.

However, we have since had some further rain tonight from what is actually the remnants of an old storm system which affected parts of France recently. According to what I heard, there were some weather warning issued for that by the French Met Office which were the equivalent of the amber warnings which we have here. Since it was mainly the north of France which was most badly affected by that, that means that had this weather system approached from slightly further to the north, that would probably have resulted in an amber warning being issued for the south of England which would have been enough to mean that we would now be talking about this system being known as Storm Doris as it would have been called.

As it is though, the worst of the weather stayed to the south of the UK which means that there were no amber warnings (although the south of England did still get a yellow warning for that) anywhere in the UK and this is what resulted in this latest system not being classed as a named storm. The actual difference between those two scenarios is actually quite small, but this shows how even a really short difference like that can make a massive difference.

I will add though, that it took quite a while for that rain to reach us, given the fact that this rain area was so close by for over an hour or so beforehand and even now, it's not raining all that heavily. This therefore shows that we continue to have a real struggle just now to any rain here, and that makes me wonder why on Earth, it has suddenly become so difficult lately, for us to get any sort of decent amounts of rain in this part of the world, especially since the rain shadow effect can't be used as any excuse for that on this occasion due to the fact that the main centre of low pressure is sitting just to the south of us at the moment, which means that the wind is actually coming from the east around that area of low pressure.

Having said that though, the latest BBC forecasts have suggested that it could take well into tomorrow (possibly until around or just before lunchtime) for that rain to clear away northwards. Beyond that, there is then the potential for quite a bit of rain during the latter part of Monday into Tuesday as the next weather system comes in and gets stuck as it comes up against that developing Scandy High. It will therefore be interesting to see whether we do actually get quite a bit of rain out of that, or whether that rain shadow effect gets in the way of us getting anything at all from that, which could happen since the wind is likely to be coming from the south at that point in time, with the result that we coukl once again be sheltered by the Pentland Hills.

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Snowing quite heavily here at the mo. A bit of a surprise as was not expecting it. Trying to stick but ground too wet.

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Yet another putrid wet Saturday as this horror show of a winter does everything it can to wrestle the title of 'worst winter of my lifetime' from 2013/14

Current model output suggests it will win the battle with ease as there is no end in sight to the most revolting of SE'ly synoptics that have hung round like a bad smell for the past 10 days. Should be noticing an improvement in the weather by now with lengthening daylight and stronger sunlight. Fat chance of either of those things becoming apparent under these filthy and disgusting synoptics.

Hard to believe a winter as bad as this has been could get any worse never mind this much worse. Grim beyond belief when even the hunt for frost is proving fruitless. Just one in two weeks and two in the second half of winter and absolutely zero likely in the coming week

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6.6 mm of rain had fallen so far this morning, that's twice as much than what "Doris" gave us yesterday evening.     

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Quite a nice day today with sunshine and light winds. I think we're now at the point where the sun starts to have an effect on daytime temperatures. The period where large diurnal temperature ranges are possible will be here soon.

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Well, it is certainly windier than what it was yesterday, and it looks as though we still have that same weather system in place as what moved in yesterday evening (i.e. the remnants of that French storm system). Apart from the wind though, the weather wasn't too bad earlier on this morning. The Sun had come out for a while, and it had even looked as though this area of rain had already cleared away from the south, especially as the radar map as showing all of the rainfall sitting to the north of us.

Since that weather system moved in a bit quicker last night than what was originally forecast, I therefore assumed tnis system would also have moved away a bit quicker than what was originally forecast. Over the last hour or so though, it has been raining quite heavily once again and upon looking at the latest radar map, it now looks as though this sytem has actually come back southwards a bit once again, leaving us right in the midst of it and of course, I can't find a single forecast which had even hinted about any possibility of this happening since all the forecasts until now, were pointing towards an improvement in the weather as we went into the afternoon, which is clearly not happening so far.

I'm pretty sure that something similar to that happened last Saturday as well because back then, it rained throughout the morning, though never all that heavily. That rain was then forecast to clear away later on but instead of that, it actually got worse as the day wore on with the rain getting a lot heavier, and even turning to snow at higher altitudes which in turn, left quite a covering over the Pentland Hills. This clearly shows how the forecast models have such a problem predicting what the weather will be like even on the same day and if they can't even get that right, it is difficult to see how on Earth, we can be expected to trust those longer term forecasts such as those which are predicting the possibility of a Scandy High becoming more influencial by the end of next week.

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Roads, pavements and cars covered in a glaze of black ice currently. Had to hold onto the wall just to get to the front gate! Yet only  slight air frost recorded though, currently -1.1c.

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Absolutely disgusting yet again. Grey, wet and vile easterly muck and the outlook: more of the same 

Yet to go below 2C this month and more rain at weekends than weekdays this year. Not just in terms of average but in absolute terms as well. Just insufferable. The most revolting winter weather that anywhere on the planet has to endure. A living hell

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I am reminded of this......

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Didn't you experience that crack of thunder this afternoon? Apparently it was seen - or rather, felt - by most in the Aberdeen area.

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For the next week or so this site is forecasting continuous heavy snowfall - stuck in the middle of the North Sea What a waste!

 

(But there is a glimmer of hope at the end of the forecast period)

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For the life in me I just can't get excited at the prospects of a SE/E flow IMBY, unless we see some kind of Atlantic incursion then the thoughts of dry, cold and grey laden skies isn't my idea of winter nirvana.

I've just mowed my lawn, even worked up a sweat whenever the weather did brighten up (only had jogging bottoms and a cardigan on).

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Regrettably it appears we've yet again managed to dodge a decent easterly by a whisker as the low uppers and dps rapidly moderate from Sunday. No amount of analysis and abbreviations can disguise the fact that what could of been, won't. Shame but I'm not so bothered these days as my work now involves truckloads of travel and I can't be having snow disrupting my calendar 😎

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My prediction of February being catastrophically wet to rival December 2012, Winter 13/14 and January 2016 has become a reality Continuous rain since 9pm yesterday totalling 33.4mm and monthly average close to being reached already following the wet weekend. 72.2mm in the last 10 days - absolutely repulsive and almost a repeat of last January really.

Funny how the models picked up on these toxic SE winds weeks ago, and they have come off, but anything decent just keeps getting watered down until it disappears completely. Another week at least of this suicide-inducing crap to endure according to this exhibit from the Chamber of Horrors:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?LANG=en&CEL=C&SI=mph&CONT=ukuk&LAND=UK&REGION=0003&WMO=03091&LEVEL=52&R=0&NOREGION=1 

As vile a forecast as it’s possible to get with almost zero sunshine over the next week, stupid amounts of rain and another write-off weekend worse than the last one. The snow will be flurries at best and I doubt the temperature will even get to -2C due to cloud. In any case even if what’s shown does transpire it’ll only equal what was recorded in the week of 2-8 May 2015. An absolute disgrace for February and in no way constitutes a cold spell.

Could there be any worse a synoptic chart than this nauseating, mind-numbing rubbish? http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.gif and when we finally get rid of the SE’ly muck we end up with drizzly mild dross spewing in off the Atlantic courtesy of a high sitting in the wrong place yet again when it should be to the NW http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3121.gif

Absolute torture from a February hell-bent on rivalling the record breaking dull and wet write-offs of 1923 and 1994

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I honestly feel concerned for your mental well-being, Richard.
Have you ever thought of moving to Canada? 😂

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Wow what a turn up, another borefest cold snap blink and you miss it fiasco.
Roll on spring, this winter is utter pants.

Just typical...when we do eventually get a blocking pattern with a Scandi high the temps in the Baltic region are pretty balmy by their standards, even in Moscow it's only -2degC...! hence all the UK will get is a couple of chilly days with patchy rain for most, before it all breaks down and winter will have eluded us once again...maybe for good...!!! lordy...we just can't catch a break...

It's been a bit like this trying to get a cold spell into the UK this winter - this is my head most mornings after looking at the model runs:

https://www.facebook.com/wtfwatchofficial/videos/344218495963608/ 

😂😂

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Real cold spells always come out of the blue. We have scared them away with our weather models. Winter 16/17 will be remembered as a dire season that promised so much and delivered NIL!

Not even one snow flurry here that lasted more than half an hour. No snow cover for over four years now