Model Output Discussion 13/01/17 08:50 Onwards>>>· Page 11

tallyho_83
Advanced Member

14 January 2017 20:05:25

That's not such a bad chart really but THIS is truly dire for cold going forward:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

Originally Posted by: White Meadows

Argh yes but that's next Tuesday (day 10) - I have given up looking at charts more than a week ahead. They are never correct/. But that could happen...we have been let down before.

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com

moomin75
Advanced Member

14 January 2017 20:24:31

#252

Make no bones about it. The charts are horrendous if it's winter you are after. UK high followed by MLB then a return to zonal south westerlies looks nailed on. The return to zonal may happen sooner than is being shown....but generally the trend has been there for seven days that winter is pretty much over. And so it seems tonight across the board.
I've been caught on the hop too because it looks like a mild and wet end to January too now so a dry end of January may not materialise. What a desperate time for winter model watching if it's cold wintry weather you are a fan of.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

doctormog
Advanced Member

14 January 2017 20:31:02

#253

So given all this do you think next weekend we will return to milder and wetter weather?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83

I think things will continue to change (to what I don't know) over the next day or so for that time point, but at the moment and based on current data, I think some form of largely anticyclonic conditions would be the most likely outcome next weekend.

Unlike Moomin I have no crystal ball so will not claim anything is even remotely "nailed on" (as I don't believe it is or has been in ththe medium term for days if not weeks).

Edited by user 14 January 2017 20:32:21 | Reason: Not specified

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS)

Quantum
Advanced Member

14 January 2017 20:32:21

#254

Make no bones about it. The charts are horrendous if it's winter you are after. UK high followed by MLB then a return to zonal south westerlies looks nailed on. The return to zonal may happen sooner than is being shown....but generally the trend has been there for seven days that winter is pretty much over. And so it seems tonight across the board.
I've been caught on the hop too because it looks like a mild and wet end to January too now so a dry end of January may not materialise. What a desperate time for winter model watching if it's cold wintry weather you are a fan of.

Originally Posted by: moomin75

Zonal south westerlies are far from nailed on. You well know that anything in the 10 day range should be treated with extreme caution; I mean keep in mind the dream 10 day charts being shown so far.

That said I will keep on repeating what I've said about deep prolonged cold; what we really need is to get that 552 isopleth to Greenland. And I've seen some pretty near misses over the last couple of days. The charts could flip quite suddenly.

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

Rob K
Advanced Member

14 January 2017 20:43:49

#255

Make no bones about it. The charts are horrendous if it's winter you are after. UK high followed by MLB then a return to zonal south westerlies looks nailed on. The return to zonal may happen sooner than is being shown....but generally the trend has been there for seven days that winter is pretty much over. And so it seems tonight across the board.
I've been caught on the hop too because it looks like a mild and wet end to January too now so a dry end of January may not materialise. What a desperate time for winter model watching if it's cold wintry weather you are a fan of.

Originally Posted by: moomin75

Nothing is "nailed on" at all. Even a week out there is huge variance in the models. In two weeks literally any scenario is possible, within reason. In the past 24 hours we've seen every outcome even within 240 hours from frigid northeasterlies to mild southwesterlies.

Saying anything is "nailed on" is just drama-queenery for the sake of it IMHO.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Gandalf The White
Advanced Member

14 January 2017 20:59:49

#256

Make no bones about it. The charts are horrendous if it's winter you are after. UK high followed by MLB then a return to zonal south westerlies looks nailed on. The return to zonal may happen sooner than is being shown....but generally the trend has been there for seven days that winter is pretty much over. And so it seems tonight across the board.
I've been caught on the hop too because it looks like a mild and wet end to January too now so a dry end of January may not materialise. What a desperate time for winter model watching if it's cold wintry weather you are a fan of.

Originally Posted by: moomin75

As horrendous at T+240 as they were amazing at the same timescales not so long ago.

The 10-day verification statistics are not great and our collective experience confirms it.

I agree that the ECM trend is away from cold weather beyond next weekend but it's a very long way off.

Edited by user 14 January 2017 21:11:01 | Reason: Not specified

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E

Karl Guille
Advanced Member

14 January 2017 21:00:51

#257

ECM shorts are colder than the 0z and there is a large cluster below the mean at days 5,6 & 7 that support something colder in the medium term before the general theme changes to something just a bit milder. The Op is well above the main cluster in this period!
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

St. Sampson
Guernsey

Whether Idle
Advanced Member

14 January 2017 21:07:43

#258

ECM shorts are colder than the 0z and there is a large cluster below the mean at days 5,6 & 7 that support something colder in the medium term before the general theme changes to something just a bit milder. The Op is well above the main cluster in this period!
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille

Shows FI to in fact be around t84.