The big picture looks relatively clear but the details are uncertain. Onwards...

The next week and a half looks dry and cold in the South, possibly very cold at times in the far South East with the chance of the odd flurry. Beyond that, the ens do seem to point to a flatter pattern with a much more mobile regime. But it's so far out and neither the GEFS or the Euro ENS have exactly covered themselves in glory in the last month or so.

If we get a cold week next week and for a while thereafter, I'd be more than happy with an early spring 

UKMO looking dry and settled

Looking at the De Bilt ens, ECM is having a major wobble about putting Nederland in the freezer. A significant number of members now suggesting it may be brief or not happen at all.

But GFS now looking reasonably confident of at least 5 days in the freezer.

I wonder what synoptics they are showing? The high would have to sink a LOT from the op run to let mild air over the top into Holland, ao that seems puzzling.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017011306/gfsnh-1-126.png?6

just a glancing blow from the cold uppers before they drian out

No, that's a misreading of the charts.  The 06z builds the high to our east and the cold air oozes slowly but steadily west and north through Tuesday and Wednesday. Then we have a developing high to the west and the potential for a renewed Arctic outflow from the north by next weekend - although that's far from certain.

GFS 06Z at 216 hours - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=0

not a million miles away from ECM 0z http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

(I know the hours don't compare exactly - my bad)

I would take that glancing blow down here all day, oh as I look out of the window at the snow falling.

I posted yesterday that i was worried about the potential cold easterly spell being shortened  by a squeeze at both ends.

Todays meto forecast has a statement that colder air may get into the SE on Tuesday.

Presumably that is based on the 84h fax shown below which shows a cold front beginning to track west in the south but a warm front continuing to move east in the north.Looking at GFS ,ECM and GEFS it looks like the 17th/18th by the time an easterly flow is establishes.At the other end the easterly seems to collapse by Saturday/ Sunday so we are looking at a 3/4 day easterly.

Of course there maybe wintry possibilities in the breakdown Iceland/GH and even more snow opportunities However by 240h there are also zonal ENS starting to appear.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=fax&model=fax

That looks positive with the cold air making good progress Westward but I can't quite tie it in to the FAX chart above for Tuesday which shows the cold front no further West than London.

A Great Looking 06z Run IMO and a trend I hope the models will pick up on rising heights in Greenland will be the only way we can get really cold uppers at the moment.

I think this could be something to look out for.

Pretty good agreement in recent model runs for a week of fairly quiet, cold and dry weather before things could become interesting again towards next weekend, with the possibility of a Greenland High forming. A long way off of course, but the potential of a very cold, snowy, and perhaps prolonged blast from the N/NE is certainly there in this morning's runs.

Will be fascinating to see how this plays out 

Daytime highs for Friday look cold.

Control so far

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2017011306/gens-0-1-174.png

Again signs of a GH

Great 06z OP, with a potential N/NE blast setting in after the initial Easterly. Certainly a new trend to watch out for.

I noticed the 552 getting into southern Greenland by T207 as well:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_207_mslp500.png?cb=39

Plenty to keep me interested.

seems to be an even split in the GEFS between those that want to raise heights in the Greenland/Iceland region and those that bring back the atlantic

fortunately the op and control are in the cold camp

The GFS always wants to bring back the atlantic.   Takes aloft of evidential data to get any members swayed towards a GH scenario.  Read between the lines as you wish

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2017011306/gensnh-0-0-264.png

Exceptional warmth across the NE of America, which is helpful in keeping the atlantic quieter