Less cold for parts of the UK

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UKMO 144 - England develops its own cool pool: Fancy a dip?

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144 from UK

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Wow stunner heavy snow over most of England.

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I think we can all see this one is going the way of the upgrade within the semi "reliable" (72-144).

Fascinating times

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Have to say we are well into FI now, I'm more than pleased with the 12z, lets see what ECM delivers.

 

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GEM looking quite good at T144 too!
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2017020512/gem-0-144.png?12 

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At least for east anglia interest feature in north sea at 180

-8 hPA knocking on my door on the GEM at 150!
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2017020512/gem-1-150.png?12 

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'Tis quite fun running the jet charts from T90 ish onwards and watching it die to the west of us.

Little bit too much energy in the Northern arm still seems to be the issue though and/or poor angle so it hits the block rather than heading under it. Wouldn't take a massive adjustment for the end result to look very different - hopefully they'll be a few ens that manage a colder solution at a relatively early stage of the run

Edit: Probably should say though for cold in the reliable it's a lot better than nout Just can't help chasing perfection

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Interesting cross model support tonight. Will the ECM make it a full house later?

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Looks a wintry 144 to me MBY

and a few other locations also

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Super GEM from 126-216 with sub -8 over much of the UK throughout!
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2017020512/gem-1-216.png?12 

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No shortage of cold here

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Well in to FI and all that but GFS manages to get colder air back in courtesy of a little lobe of the Azores HP being absorbed in to our Scandi block:-

Encouraging stuff for a longer cold/chilly spell. Now if someone could cut what's left of the Azores HP in half and blast the jet through the middle on a south to South Easterly track it'd be perfect!

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JFF, GFS similar to GEM at 240 in terms of 850hPA temps!, widely -8c!
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017020512/gfs-1-252.png?12 

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Looking good on the latest output for the southern half of England and those on the East coast of the UK for some of the white stuff next weekend, not so for those of us further west and probably the reason why I never get excited with Easterlies. Still lots of water to flow under the bridge before then so we shall see.

Given us in the SE did well (comparatively speaking) out of the last NW'ly perhaps this time the NW will do well out of an Easterly flow

Of course if this did happen I'd be most upset

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Ukmo and GEM  both stunning this afternoon gfs is good as well. Come on ecm you know you want to.

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">http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2017020512/gem-1-216.png?12