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nsrobins
Sunday, February 5, 2017 6:54:00 PM
Almost cross-model agreement at +144 then ECM again spoils for a fight.
Whilst it's not on board, the solution next weekend is uncertain although the tone from the MetO media output this evening is bullish on snow flurries/showers in the east next Saturday so they seem to be dismissing ECM at the moment.
Fascinating times.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Ally Pally Snowman
Sunday, February 5, 2017 6:54:36 PM

LOL Scorchio 15c + . Don't think ive ever seen the ecm so different to all the other models.


 


 


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
Sunday, February 5, 2017 6:56:12 PM


LOL Scorchio 15c + . Don't think ive ever seen the ecm so different to all the other models.


 


 


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


15°C from that chart? Not a chance.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Ally Pally Snowman
Sunday, February 5, 2017 6:58:40 PM

It really is a remarkably warm ecm run Early Spring 


 


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
Sunday, February 5, 2017 6:59:32 PM

Interesting cross model support tonight. Will the ECM make it a full house later?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Not a chance! Never that easy is it? ECM sinks the high and we end up with a UK based HP.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
roger63
Sunday, February 5, 2017 7:01:16 PM


 


How do you do the math can I ask?


Ensemble No 14 is by far the coldest from +192z - Just wanted to display these - I have chosen the chart for the same time on each day.











I just love how it goes from south south-easterly at +192 to Easterly then north to north -easterly.


If this materialised it would be the coldest spell since the winter of 2012/2013.


Also notice no Azores HP!?


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Maths is simple looking at air flow easterly or westerly dominant ie cold:mild.pretty rough but good enough for trends and balance of Ens

Ally Pally Snowman
Sunday, February 5, 2017 7:01:39 PM


 


15°C from that chart? Not a chance.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


Ok maybe murky fog but 850s are 20c higher than all the other models at day 9. Complete madness!


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
Sunday, February 5, 2017 7:01:47 PM


It really is a remarkably warm ecm run Early Spring 


 


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


that is a potential ice day

Rob K
Sunday, February 5, 2017 7:01:56 PM


It really is a remarkably warm ecm run Early Spring 


 


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I don't think that would be a warm chart, certainly not in the southeast!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
doctormog
Sunday, February 5, 2017 7:02:31 PM


It really is a remarkably warm ecm run Early Spring 


 


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I think you may be confusing 500hPa thicknesses and t850hPa values with surface temperatures under anticyclonic conditions after a cold snap. It is not remarkably warm on any of those charts. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gandalf The White
Sunday, February 5, 2017 7:04:48 PM


It really is a remarkably warm ecm run Early Spring 


 


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I wonder if it will be warm at the surface, let alone remarkably so?  


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Rob K
Sunday, February 5, 2017 7:05:04 PM


 


I think you may be confusing 500hPa thicknesses and t850hPa values with surface temperatures under anticyclonic conditions after a cold snap. It is not remarkably warm on any of those charts. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Indeed but the fact remains ECM is very much at odds with the other output tonight. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Hippydave
Sunday, February 5, 2017 7:07:32 PM

Almost cross-model agreement at +144 then ECM again spoils for a fight.
Whilst it's not on board, the solution next weekend is uncertain although the tone from the MetO media output this evening is bullish on snow flurries/showers in the east next Saturday so they seem to be dismissing ECM at the moment.
Fascinating times.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


It's always a worry when the best verifying model says 'no'


It's comfortably in FI so may be the ECM has gone off on one but at best I think it means we need another 48-72 hours to see how it goes.


I guess the issue with the current pattern is if too much energy does get North of the block it's always more likely to sink and draw in warmer uppers as it does so (may still be cold at the surface though).


Given the ECM in theory handles blocking over Scandi better than the GFS (fairly sure I heard the MetO comment along those lines anyway), I'd really like to see the ECM Op back off on being a milder solution vs it's ens and show us a cold solution.


Pretty typical that the other day ECM had colder FI charts and GFS was picking out milder evolutions and now the position has reversed.


Add in the scatter in the ens and it's really a finger in the air jobby at present


 

Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
White Meadows
Sunday, February 5, 2017 7:08:19 PM


 


Maths is simple looking at air flow easterly or westerly dominant ie cold:mild.pretty rough but good enough for trends and balance of Ens


Originally Posted by: roger63 

Your updates are very conveniently quick to digest and much appreciated- keep up the good work!! 👍

tallyho_83
Sunday, February 5, 2017 7:08:38 PM


 


that is a potential ice day


Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Who said 15+c ? - Must be a milder outlier.



 


 

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gandalf The White
Sunday, February 5, 2017 7:09:24 PM


 


Not a chance! Never that easy is it? ECM sinks the high and we end up with a UK based HP.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I would make a small bet that the Op will be close to an outlier in the ensembles but it will be several hours before we will know, unfortunately.  But if the jetstream is indeed going to drive west-east into Scandinavia then the block can only go one way.


At this point I would fall back on the Met Office outlook: they don't issue unambiguous forecasts unless the data are pointing strongly in a certain direction.   I guess it could be one of those occasions when something significant has happened somewhere to alter the dynamics but I wouldn't make that call on one Op run.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Ally Pally Snowman
Sunday, February 5, 2017 7:09:50 PM


 


I think you may be confusing 500hPa thicknesses and t850hPa values with surface temperatures under anticyclonic conditions after a cold snap. It is not remarkably warm on any of those charts. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


Fair enough one things for sure it aint gonna snow. To be 20c 850s warmer than the other models must be some sort of record .


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gandalf The White
Sunday, February 5, 2017 7:12:02 PM


 


 


Fair enough one things for sure it aint gonna snow. To be 20c 850s warmer than the other models must be some sort of record .


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Based on what?  A solitary ECM run?   I think it may be premature to call it either way just now.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Ally Pally Snowman
Sunday, February 5, 2017 7:17:10 PM


 


Based on what?  A solitary ECM run?   I think it may be premature to call it either way just now.



Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


I was talking about that particular ecm run at day 9 . 


 


The ecm is completely on its own tonight so I'd give it a 5% chance of being correct. Add JMA to the very cold list superb run.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=180&mode=0


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gandalf The White
Sunday, February 5, 2017 7:17:45 PM


 


It's always a worry when the best verifying model says 'no'


It's comfortably in FI so may be the ECM has gone off on one but at best I think it means we need another 48-72 hours to see how it goes.


I guess the issue with the current pattern is if too much energy does get North of the block it's always more likely to sink and draw in warmer uppers as it does so (may still be cold at the surface though).


Given the ECM in theory handles blocking over Scandi better than the GFS (fairly sure I heard the MetO comment along those lines anyway), I'd really like to see the ECM Op back off on being a milder solution vs it's ens and show us a cold solution.


Pretty typical that the other day ECM had colder FI charts and GFS was picking out milder evolutions and now the position has reversed.


Add in the scatter in the ens and it's really a finger in the air jobby at present


 


Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


The verification at Day 8 is only around two-thirds and ECM is only around 5-10% better than GFS/UMKO, so I don't think it merits taking ECM as gospel.


As you say, it's in FI anyway. 


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


doctormog
Sunday, February 5, 2017 7:26:34 PM


 


 


Fair enough one things for sure it aint gonna snow. To be 20c 850s warmer than the other models must be some sort of record .


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Yes, I think that's a good call.  It could always be right too and I'm not sure if we'll have a good idea of whether or not it is along the right lines until tomorrow.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
Sunday, February 5, 2017 7:31:07 PM

4C with patchy drizzle or sleet from a leaden sky is what easterlies and a blocking High usually produce in winter.
No idea why UK weather forums pore over charts hoping for any chance of chilly drizzle in a week's time.

North York Moors weather 
Gandalf The White
Sunday, February 5, 2017 7:34:07 PM


4C with patchy drizzle or sleet from a leaden sky is what easterlies and a blocking High usually produce in winter.
No idea why UK weather forums pore over charts hoping for any chance of chilly drizzle in a week's time.


Originally Posted by: four 



 


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gavin D
Sunday, February 5, 2017 7:41:08 PM

Better chance of snow from UKMO extended


Gandalf The White
Sunday, February 5, 2017 7:43:28 PM


Better chance of snow from UKMO extended


 


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Not 4C and drizzle then?


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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