After a couple of iffy days ecm is still fighting the good fight. 1000 times better than gfs . Something will have to give soon.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html

Looks like a 2 or3 day wonder, that trough, before the high reasserts itself.  I'm very happy with the ECM this evening.

Well the GFS manages to produce something even worse. It has a tendancy to overplay the persistance of low pressure though as seen by the follow up to the late June heatwave which wasn't as bad as modelled.

The ECM really doesn't look that bad at all so hopefully its on the right track.

As for the warm spell on Tuesday, it seems badly timed for storms down here as it moves through during the night. Hopefully I'm wrong though, no storms here yet this year. Maybe we could get some French imports....

0z GFS backs last night's ECM.  Here is the scenario for a week's time at the start of the school hols:  Azores high ridging into SW, cyclonic influence more prevalent in Scotland.  Will be interesting to note what the ECM proffers this morning.

this morning's GFS

12z ECM yesterday:

GEFS seems to have improved overnight . Warmer less rain

Enough low pressure over S Britain on Wed according to fax and other charts for an ample amount of thundery rain. But GFS 12z rainfall (above) and local MetO forecasts (50% chance of a shower in this area) seem reluctant to turn these synoptics into actual rain.

Crap ecm Op has to be said . We can count ourselves very unlucky we've ended up here 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

Well its the ecm turn to be bad cop this morning . Always thought Gem was the best model anyway. A stunner this morning 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1681.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.html

Ecm getting there by day 9 again but its a painfully slow route 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html

We now appear to have reached some sort of resolution for the end of the week.

Low pressure close to the NW giving Scotland a continuation of their torrid summer. It could be quite cool on the east coast of Scotland if any easterly sets up in the cyclonic flow. The unsettled conditions should merely brush the south before high pressure from the Azores soon nudges back in resulting in a corresponding rise in temperature to maintain the good summer overall. 

0z ECM gets the cyclonic bug but shrugs it off by day 9. Detail for next weekend still sketchy.

ECM has azores high moving in in a weeks time. Of course all that could change but that is what the model is showing at present. GFS also shows azores high heading in the right direction.

Ecm mean Better than the Op. Shows pleasant conditions developing for most but no heatwave.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1681.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.html

Agreed with the usual caveats 

I think largely settled and warm basically sums up them charts, despite the generally westerly flow.

GFS 6z shows the south gaining HP influence with brisk W to Swlies over the country as Scotland contends with cyclonic influence by next Friday evening/ Sat am:

Shame the trolling of this thread is continuing though

Glad you mentioned that. This is supposed to be a serious and meaningful section of this forum.

I'll be going through the posts on here and there will be some warnings.

Please stay on topic.

"Warnings" just lol. You have two previously multiple times banned members. Did you guys expect them to change? And then you have a donut who screams summer is over or it's 1976 with every changing run. Warnings? Bans. 

Anyway - back on topic. Agree with Gusty to an extent. Appears to be relative agreement in the models at present. Not bad for south of the midlands. Worse the further north you go, so not good news for those still to taste summer oop north. Caveats of changing outputs at that range apply. 

We just have to laugh at the 12z ecm and hope its wrong 

Will be interesting to see what the ECM 12z mean shows when it comes out later on. This morning's 00z mean run seemed to show a less unsettled scenario compared to the op run, so hopefully this evening's mean will follow suit.

Seems to me that the models are in a land of confusion at the moment, at least to some degree.