Agree with some of the comments about the weekend looking iffy. Think we'll have a better idea by Thursday. GFSP06z keeps the warmth for longer than recent GFS op runs. Fingers crossed.

Looks iffy to me and I still don't think it's possible to make a call on the Bank Holiday weekend (I include Monday here). The hot and sunny angle has been pushed in the media but I would suspect a change of emphasis now. However as I said to someone in the press earlier today it's one of those situations where the balance could still tip back. On the plus side it means plenty of interest. 

well written Brian.. lets hope the models flip back away from the potential unsettled outlook. As stated earlier I would hope by tomorrow we will have a steer on how the weekend will turn out.

The weather for the bank holiday is looking like a forecasters nightmare. The GFS unfortnately has thundery showers developing in the South on Saturday morning spreading NE'wards.

Unusually during this time it still looks very warm and hot. In any prolonged sunny spells I still expect temperatures to hit the late 20's.

The tiniest change in it's path could mean only the far west gets hit, it is finely poised.

I'm seriously hoping this is the case or the thundery band passes Southampton in the early hours, as I have a midday barbeque planned and a trip to the common people festival in the afternoon.

I'm more confident about having a barbecue on Sat than I was this morning. Looks to me as though the chance of the south east remaining very warm / hot and dry on Saturday is now pretty high. 

Not a bad little spell of weather currently if you like it warm/hot I guess - down here it's been warm and dry since Sunday, with this looking to continue until BH Monday before some showery stuff arrives. (Bit of a question mark over Saturdays little developing LP although that probably won't affect here too much imo with the worst of the weather in the West and further North).

Thereafter still warm but more chance of some rain about albeit not a washout looks favoured at present although as with the current settled spell it wouldn't take much for HP to assert itself again. (IMBY anyway).

All in all fairly typical for early June

As an aside, imo nothing in the charts says the default pattern of winter and spring has really changed all that much, with HP never far away, so I'd really not be surprised to see some more settled stuff cropping up relatively soon. 

A shift eastwards in the rain/storm risk for Saturday into Sunday, with storms now looking likely in SW, Wales, W.Mids, N.England, NI & Scotland. 

I also noticed the enembles had upgraded the uppers to 14C on Monday so a big turnaround from yesterday that showing a marked drop on Monday and from the charts I see for Monday looking quite a hot day with high 20's with possible storms later on. I would be able to record 30C few times at some point. 

GEFS showing a more changeable outlook developing >28/05. Typical that it coincides with the Bank Holiday weekend. Shows again that it's not possible to plan holidays / beanos in the UK with any confidence more than a few days ahead.

Looking at the latest FAX charts, the atlantic will be infested with small low pressure systems by Sunday, so looking good for the Bank holiday (not).

GFSP00z keeps it very warm / hot in the SE on Sunday.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfspara/00_87_uk2mtmp.png

GEFS06z are also spiking around 28/05 and tentatively after 04/06.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=london

We could be heading for a hot one this year. 

Looking good for those I don't care about 😜 but for really important people like me it's looking a dogs dinner. 😮

Edit; Sunday and Monday will be dryish anyhow. 😀

That will be an unexpected treat, Brian, were it to verify. I have told my hostess 24c and risk of thunderstorms, but she will be nagging me for an update soon! 

Unusually for late May-early June when there's typically an uptick in the jet stream as the building low-mid lat heat comes up against the last remnants of the springtime Arctic cold, next week is presenting a case of 'will a Scandinavian High block off the Atlantic lows?'

(Fun fact: 260 is the magic size number for three images in a row)

Currently we have GFS having a good go of it, with the 06z the first to manage to do a decent job of it with most areas turning dry and on the warm side by the weekend (see Friday's chart below-left; almost there but still a decaying frontal boundary to get rid of).

UKMO on the other hand is not very convincing one way or the other, as it's unclear whether the southernmost of the two lows out west will over the following 12-24 hours take on a negative tilt as per the GFS run; this crucial as then the trough encompassing the two lows is essentially giving way to the ridge ahead of it. 

Then we have ECM (right-hand chart below), which has the southernmost Atlantic low remaining more or less independent of the other one, such that even through it takes on a negative tilt, it does not get drawn away to the northwest. This allows the ridge over Scandi to 'win' but while situated too far northeast to keep the low away from our shores. Beyond this point I believe the low would have gradually died away while hanging about in our vicinity, with the blocking high eventually gaining more of a direct influence (well, at least by mid-June as Met Office outlooks suggest), had the model not brought across an extra (relative to GFS and UKMO) low pressure system (seen by the Azores in the example chart) to do a dance with the earlier one and make an absolute dog's dinner of things - be that rightfully so or not, only with further runs can we tell!

Um okay... so GFS has come up with an entirely new solution which sees the southernmost low become stretched out in its formative stages, with the leading edge racing off NE to land a glancing blow on the northern half of the UK while the trailing edge dangles down west of Europe, resulting in a weak ridge centred across north-central Europe. 

Quite the difference to the Scandi block that was trending across the past few GFS runs!

So this run is sort of like taking the ECM 00z, taking out some of the aggressiveness, but then adding further complications. Has to be said though, I have seen this stringing-out of secondary lows plenty enough times to know it really could unfold that way. Even if it doesn't the UKMO 12z looks capable of producing a similar outcome for Thu-Fri provided the Atlantic trough elongates south or south-eastward as it weakens.

Perhaps we'll be living a sultry but dangerous existence going into June?

Incredibly enough, I noticed GEM toying around with this idea yesterday. Surely not another plume spotted by that model first? 

In all honesty though, next week is looking very hard to call, even to start with as Monday remains capable of bringing to a large part of England and perhaps Wales anything from sunshine and a few well-scattered showers to leaden skies and persistent heavy rain.

GFS is trying for the miraculous save following only a brief spell of rain... nice to see this trend toward more of an AH influence but unless ECM joins forces I will have to keep my skeptical hat on.