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Ally Pally Snowman
15 July 2017 19:17:16


 


Will be interesting to see what the ECM 12z mean shows when it comes out later on. This morning's 00z mean run seemed to show a less unsettled scenario compared to the op run, so hopefully this evening's mean will follow suit.


Seems to me that the models are in a land of confusion at the moment, at least to some degree.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


 


We'd be incredibly unlucky if the ecm is correct tonight.  Nightmare run.  Pretty mixed output all in all .


 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gusty
15 July 2017 21:31:22

If the ECM were to verify we would likely see some extremely tasty convection. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
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moomin75
15 July 2017 21:38:24
ECM has been every bit as volatile as the other models for some time..its not in my view all it's cracked up to be and has been constantly flip flopping between wet and dry hot and cool.
I think it's pretty clear that anything past midweek is complete FI at the moment.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
David M Porter
15 July 2017 21:51:12

ECM has been every bit as volatile as the other models for some time..its not in my view all it's cracked up to be and has been constantly flip flopping between wet and dry hot and cool.
I think it's pretty clear that anything past midweek is complete FI at the moment.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Can't really disagree there, Kieren.


I think the real fly in the ointment as far as the models are concerned right now is the thundery low that is forecast to move northwards from France from Tuesday night onwards; this wasn't spotted by the models IIRC until a couple of days ago. I don't think it will be until maybe Tuesday when the models will have a better grip on exactly how the low from the south is likely to interact with the one approaching from the atlantic on Wednesday before they know with any certainty what is likely to transpire from late next week onwards.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Ally Pally Snowman
16 July 2017 06:21:57

The flip in the models to unsettled conditions has been extraordinary . From 1976 to 2007 . This morning there's virtually no sign of any good weather at all. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Sevendust
16 July 2017 06:48:34


The flip in the models to unsettled conditions has been extraordinary . From 1976 to 2007 . This morning there's virtually no sign of any good weather at all. 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Which is why you should ignore anything past a week because the accuracy is gash.


Fww the London GEFS set is quite dry but goes straight to flatlined default after a few days and it rarely stays that way as we approach reality.

Ally Pally Snowman
16 July 2017 07:08:17


 


Which is why you should ignore anything past a week because the accuracy is gash.


Fww the London GEFS set is quite dry but goes straight to flatlined default after a few days and it rarely stays that way as we approach reality.


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


 


Cant disagree with any of that. The accuracy past a week in the last few days has been pretty much zero for all models. The SE looks the best place again . Nw taking the brunt as per.


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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