I'm trying, as an acknowledged late arrival compared to most of you, to piece this together Ian.
You seem to be implying that the METO would actually use words similar to "on the basis of overall warming trends" in any long range forecast - really?
Or are you saying that if the METO still go for mild even with the QBO etc signals that could give us a "retro" winter, or part of, then they must by default be taking into account your "modern winter" factor, as opposed to maybe just getting it wrong or right, which going on their previous LRF's in about a 50:50 chance?
Similarly, do you think the METO would look at their LRF, and even if it shouts COLD, they would just add a couple of degrees C CET because of the "modern winter" factor?
Interested to know where you're coming from on this.
Thanks,
Alex.
Originally Posted by: tierradelfuego