Worth reviving this link for a longer-term view of snowfall?

http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html

 

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I do see this as significant when one looks at long term trends. Taken with the QBO then there is reason for interest but if the METO final view later this month goes for mild on the basis of overall warming trends then that is clear acknowledgment of the changes that have occurred in recent years.

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It matters not what any computer model shows it’s what actually occurs that counts.

Very true SC. However, we can discern trends in the MO and there are other analogues at work, including the state of solar activity, ENSO, QBO, PV and so forth - for me, they all indicate a front loaded winter with the prospect of something tasty in the next 8 to 10 weeks.

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I was actually quite surprised when I heard that September had been slightly cooler than usual. Although it didn't have as many notably warm days as many recent Septembers, I don't recall having any particularly cool days in my neck of the woods.

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I was with October bar one warmer than average day around here it was mostly at or slightly below average throughout. 

 

No, it's from the September to November forecast, here http://www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk/download/Advance%20prediction%20Autumn%202017%20September%20to%20November.pdf

 

NOVEMBER 2017 NEW MOON = 18th @ 1142hrs = Cold & high winds. 1st QUARTER MOON = 26th @ 1702hrs = Fair & frosty FULL MOON 4th @ 0522hrs = Rain LAST QUARTER MOON 10th @ 2036hrs = Rain & snow. DoP = 11th St Martin Highest spring tides 4th to 8th – MASSIVE TIDE 5th APOGEE 21st @ 1853hrs: PERIGEE 6th @ 0010hrs. DANGER WARNING: FULL MOON + PERIGEE + HIGHEST SPRING TIDES 4th to 8th. EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER PROBLEMS.

 

 

His whole style of writing shouts "crank" very loudly IMHO.

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I'm trying, as an acknowledged late arrival compared to most of you, to piece this together Ian.

You seem to be implying that the METO would actually use words similar to "on the basis of overall warming trends" in any long range forecast - really?

Or are you saying that if the METO still go for mild even with the QBO etc signals that could give us a "retro" winter, or part of, then they must by default be taking into account your "modern winter" factor, as opposed to maybe just getting it wrong or right, which going on their previous LRF's in about a 50:50 chance?

Similarly, do you think the METO would look at their LRF, and even if it shouts COLD, they would just add a couple of degrees C CET because of the "modern winter" factor?

Interested to know where you're coming from on this.

Thanks,

Alex.

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Of course nobody, including the METO, are infallible with their long range forecasts but what we do know is that they rely on GLOSEA as a significant factor in theor outlooks; last winter we saw it let them down with the failure of HLB to develop. 

I'm suggesting that many factors could point to a colder winter - at the moment just a few do - but the METO could take a view, given the strongly +ve NAO winters that we have largely had in recent years, and go for the same again. If it were 30 years ago and factors pointed cold then the outlook would surely have reflected that, if the technology and knowledge of the various pieces of the pie were known of course.

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I think it is acknowledged the Met Office take the background global warmth into account. Someone mentioned it earlier in this thread I think. As I said the bullseye has become smaller as a result. It's not rukkula.

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It would be foolish to ignore the warming trend but as December 2010 showed it matters not if the the right synoptics are at play.

There was an exceptional lack of warmth here in September but nothing particularly cold either. Just one day reached 18C and nothing as high as 16.5C after the 8^th. At the same time there were no single figure maxes and nights were mild with a record breaking six consecutive 12C mins. Mean max was 0.8C below average and mean min was 0.8C above average.

A truly awful month with nothing going for it as far, as I’m concerned, then October turned out even worse.

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Thanks to all who replied and clarified on my questions.

IMHO I could understand if the signals were mixed, it would certainly seem reasonable to include some climatic inputs to maybe put a bias on the forecast but if it were strongly in favour either way, that would seem less sensible. Maybe I should take walk down the road from work at lunchtime to the ECMWF to learn a bit more on the subject, rather than speculating on the theories of modern winter or otherwise...

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Thanks, yes I've seen that table before. It does broadly follow what I recall but doesn't fully record the more recent snowy spell 2003-2013 as I recall it. In particular the snowiest winter of my lifetime in terms of number of snow events 2012-2013 is only listed as average. There was snowfall across the southeast in April 2008 which isn't listed after a snowless winter in my area.

It's an interesting record but as the sources inevitably vary over the long time period it is difficult to be sure the winters are being judged equally (other than the CET figures). I guess what it suggests is that if there has been a change, it happened at around 1970 (which is why I don't perceive it in my lifetime).

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I'm only 30, but 2012-2013 is definitely the snowiest winter I have personally experienced in the UK. I was keeping rough measurements of snowfall and I believe we had around 80cm that winter, over 30 in January and March with around 15 in February. Definitely a great winter for snow - albeit not particularly cold (March exceptionally so but Jan/Feb only a bit).

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Completely agree. I measure snowfalls and although I don't have all the stats to hand right now, 2012-13 wins hands down with about 80cm as you say.  March 13 was insane with the biggest drifts I have ever seen and being able to ski in West Yorkshire on Good Friday was crazy. 

As i recall it other good winters since mid 90''s have had about 40 to 50cm so don't come close e.g. 00/01, 08/09, 09/10 10/11...

 

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October was total rubbish here, Richard, and certainly no better than September. In fact, I'd say that September was marginally better as there were more by way or reasonably bright days here in between the poor ones. October was as poor a month as any we've had here this year, and there have been rather a lot of poor months for weather here in 2017.

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Indeed SC.

If I'm not mistaken, 2010 was the warmest year on record globally at the time. Yet, that December was the coldest December and the first one to record a sub-zero CET since 1890. It was also the first month to have a sub-zero CET for almost exactly 25 years.

Interestingly, I seem to recall it being said at the time that 2010 was actually the UK's coolest year since 1986, despite the fact that around the globe generally, it was the warmest year on record at the time as noted above.

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It's also worth mentioning the exceptinally cold March of 2013 here as well, although it was technically a spring month. The whole of that month was pretty well devoid of any atlantic weather with almost constant northern blocking, and this was only a year after a March that was among the warmest Marchs on record if I'm not mistaken.

If the persistent bitter cold of March '13 had occured in any one of the three preceding months, I think that it would have been very likely that we'd have had another sub-zero CET month being recorded.

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