I do remember last winter when the UKMO showed a shortwave heading NE which didn't have support from the other models at T144, and of course it torpedeod Atlantic blocking. I'm happy to side with the GFS/ECM for now, you've got to say the 18z is a belter.

EC15 eases the potency of the northerly feed by next weekend, but still keeps it largely cool. 

If you look closely at the T+144 charts from GFS and ECM it's not evident that energy will drive south-east and force the high pressure to retrogress.  Of course it is easy to see what is developing when you run forward and the problem is partly that we don't have a T+168 or 192 chart for UKMO.

Yes, there are subtle differences with the UKMO at T+144, principally a less extensive upper high and the cut-off LP slightly further north. But I don't see any obvious reason why UKMO shouldn't develop that plunge of energy and retrogression.

As you say, the 00z runs might be helpful. However this game is akin to the carrot on the stick: the answer is always just out of reach....

The 15 day 30 hpa output shows a heavily disrupted vortex, with the "cell" right over Northern Europe.



But it's all subjective due to 1) Not quite full on SSW yet, 2) the forecasting range and 3) what kind of knock on effect that'll have for us. But for now, it has somewhat piqued my interest as it is a different kind of set up for this time of year.

I cycle to work and I'd much rather have frosty crisp conditions than rain and (especially!) wind. But each to their own. 

After tomorrow (possibly) it looks like being quite a while before we see double digit temperatures.

Re the "carrot always being out of reach", I think GFS first picked up this northerly pattern on November 6, almost three weeks ago. It's taken a while but it looks as though it might finally arrive! 

Sorry Rob, I was talking about the carrot as an analogy for the endless search for certainty.....

The curse of model watching, always looking ahead in these situations and hoping for something memorably long lasting. 

GFS 18Z looks a tad nippy for the end of November and start of December. Is this week's cold snap going to be followed by a reload early next week?

Variations on a generally cold theme this morning with perhaps less of a direct northerly flow to the wind in the medium term but with the -10 850hPA still managing to get into Scotland. If anything GEM and GFS look more akin to the UKMO at T144 this morning with the High holding its position over the UK. London ensembles offering less of a snow risk on the 00z?

And the 00z throws a spanner in the works. This is just like the good old days.