yes please 

Very very chuffed with the 12z MetO 👍👍

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

GEM isn't good if it is colder air you want once the coldest air leaves later this week it doesn't return for the remainder of its run

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_204_2.png

Thats more like it. Similar setup to December 2009.

Certainly something of an uprgrade compared to the last couple of UKMO runs, IMO.

No thank you. Rain fest down here.

Yes, more encouring from the Met Office charts. Let’s hope the ECM 12z continues the trend with a bit more support from the GFS ensemble set.

Not even that for me, just a continuation of the current nothing fest. 

Towards the end of the run, the jet has gone south - interesting.

This looks nicely volatile:

Control so far

You mean next Friday, which is a lifetime away! 

If you look closely, is that a warm sector over west-Merseyside/north-west Cheshire?

The Low over Italy is also helpful. 

probably the best member from the GEFS

GEFS at T+192

There are one or two mild runs but overall the Greenland block is well supported. Good news. 

264 hours. Rain for the extreme south but proper dumpings of snow a bit further north if that occurred. Miles away obviously but fits the theme of Greenland blocking and the PV line dropping into Europe. If Atlantic lows run into that then it could be game on. 

And the postage stamps at t+240

Very, very promising. A few aren’t spectacular, a few are antocyclonic, a couple are even very mild, but there is a clear cluster for some cold conditions with snow in places. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPANELEU12_240_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU12_240_1.png mean at t+240

Does Sod's law for you mean it'll be more likely to verify for us? 

Based on charts like this I strongly suspect the 12z GEFS will have some -10C runs (at last) 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSC00EU12_246_2.png

Fortunately it's FI but I'm underwhelmed by the latter stages of the GFS run.  It's a replay of a couple of weeks ago with the Greenland block too far west, allowing the trough to form to the west of us instead of east.

Not this time, for London; if anything, it's trended milder over the last 18 hours as the cold cluster has shed a few runs.

Last night's 18z had two -10s for London and that's as many as I've seen in any of the runs this year. It remains to be seen whether tonight's "pub run" can bring more members into the cold cluster!

Jet at 300hpa level for Fri. 8th 264hrs

Jet at 300hpa level for Sun 10th 312hrs

this is the 500hpa Geopot at same time -

Might be some more interesting low trajectories with that set up.

I think I can spot one! 😂

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=12&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0

Still, a chilly set nonetheless.