I think the Beeb might change their thoughts slightly in the 21:55 forecast .....not much offering for a straight Northerly early next week, looks like HP sitting over us.....of course much can change.

In saying that the UKMO doesn’t look that bad at 144

Still, the thoughts are nice and we live in hope. 

Yes, it happens all too often! The last time that the models correctly picked up on a series of northerly blasts seems to have been the November 2010 one, as that was modelled well from 14 or so days away. Why that one was picked up on so well, whereas successive ones haven't is open for discussion.

ECM 0z portays a much milder picture for all, especially the northern contingent: this for Weds week, 

Yes, no dressing it up, a bit of a downgrade across the board this morning. Crumbs! 😂

Still not sorted quite yet but I don’t like where this is going. 

At least us enthusiasts, can just hide behind our various devices and wait for another day...think how embarrassed the professionals feel , standing in front of millions of people on TV , changing  the media releases and having to wipe the egg of their faces, I have said it before the moment the forecasters openly start saying they are confident this or that will happen, in fact the opposite occurs! 

We all know what happens to our winter when the Euroslug takes hold. I was really hoping this winter could be different from the last two, but it looks like we are in for the same old same old.

Of course the GFS still sets up a big northerly plunge in the latter stages - it still seems to be keen on that pattern, it just always fizzles out once it gets to the reliable time frame!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=384

Yes, we can call this winter based on the last 12 hours.

A note to casual readers, and it may come as a surprise, the 00z runs might have or it might not have, nailed next week’s weather.

Before then increasingly cold for the next three days.

 Even the milder GFS op run shows the following temperature anomaly http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html 

(And for what it’s worth the GFS ensemble data have more runs, eight, breaching the -10°C t850 mark than any time this reason.

ECM London ens shows it turning less cold into next week the 'coldest' day next week could be Thursday when the mean gets down to -1

Turning less cold 1km up does not always equate to less cold at the surface, especially under anticyclonic conditions. 

Sadly this looks like confirmation of the trend that I saw in yesterday’s 12z runs and led me to be quite downbeat.  We had the tell-tale signs of lessening upper heights, the high to our west edging closer.  To me it all started looking decidedly iffy.

As Michael says, it could change - and undoubtedly will - but as it stands it’s looking less likely that we’ll see sustained cold.

The nirvana of cross-model and ensemble support is still not a guarantee.  Particularly for when the evolution relies heavily on a particular set of events falling just right.  In this case we were relying on energy slipping east from Greenland and diving SE and the high retrogressing to form the block. The high is now expected to stay too close and the upper heights near Greenland haven’t rebuilt and that changes everything.

Don’t worry about them they get paid plenty of money to do it most of them are not bothered either if it’s cold or mild it’s a job.

It was interesting the way ECM 12z picked up on the change last night - although it dropped the heights to our NW it still ended up with a Northerly plunge in the latter part of the run which looked a very iffy projection. The 00z ECM looks much more believable sadly. 

Apologies if this offends, but that is bloody ridiculous. As professionals they have a duty to be accurate which they do to the best of their ability. And they get paid according to position and years of training and education to achieve that position. 

If you wish to throw toys from your pram find another nursery to do it in.