It isn't a case of 'wobbling' IMO. The models are not beings or emotional objects 

The ops are only 'reasonable' up to T+96/T+120 and at the very best on some occasions, T+144. Beyond that is just one possible snapshot of a host of scenarios but we all know this.

The only wobble is when we forget this notion and fail to look at the bigger picture which is the ENS and cross model ENS at that. ENS scatter really tells all we need to know and an op is just one part of that scatter and yet too many people claim that the models are all over the place or are wobbling when a differing op is run.

This is why icon-based forecasts are not worth their salt beyond 4-5 days and this is why the UKMO will only offer broad longer term forecasts as opposed to trying to put too much detail within. We all know this and yet too many fall into the same trap. That's called insanity 

Which would you favour? - Both totally different!?

Quite a lot of Blocking over the North pole in FI:

A very good point and the 06Z is doing its best to remind us of that by throwing out one of the colder possibilities (to put it mildly!). 

I've never found that a fork is the best implement to use when handling jelly, which is the closest analogy for synoptic forecast charts.

06z run is back to showing a mid-Atlantic upper high but we're into guesswork range again.

Blocking in the Arctic region in FI is at 1050mb and stretching into Canada , Greenland and N. Siberia etc Most importantly is that it's strengthening and stays blocked - esp the Greenland HP.  This is something to watch!? is it not?

06z delivers a classic Channel Low at T+312 and the south gets buried......

Well, we get some eye candy back with GFS 06z in deep FI. The rollercoaster has not completely run out of steam yet.

Yes, a similar set up was shown yesterday but at T+264. At this rate by Christmas the Channel low should be scheduled for next December :)

Seriously though let's just enjoy the weather in GFS-land for a moment.

I best dig out my skis then  Would be nice and it is certainly possible as we have seen this as a possibility on more than one occasion in recent output.

GFS 06Z shows a messy picture but the Greenland HP stays as does the Northern Blocking in pole - hope this trend will continue. I will be keen to see the met office update. Also notice there is some warming in stratosphere at 30hpa in FI coming off Siberia and pushing into the Arctic region. Some very cold days and nights if this came off!!

It looks good with Cold Northerly flow and chance of a few wintry showers, dry mostly in areas away from high ground and hills.

And the Good Old and in with the new High Pressure set up of the Azores crop is with us from Saturday this coming week's weekend and it may not shift upto the Wednesday the following week, and come back again lasting upto four days after some Low Pressure cross the UK in Thursday and Friday of next week et all.

The UKMO, GFS and ECMWF all look Bizarrely similar with no retrogression of North Atlantic High, but the Greeland High does at times re build but Low Pressure from Newfoundland manages to track under it and head across Iceland and Norwegian Sea and bring cold wintry weather to NE Norway and across Finland and NW Russia etc.

It means taking a break from this model watching- good luck to those who enjoy less cold and boring dry weather.  I am used to it as well and I am no longer really that bothered to waste the time worrying about picking red cherries and predict something that only happens when nobody expects it to!!!.

If only it was summer eh!. But the cold frosty nights and maybe if lucky this week we might get a flurry or two but my other half thinks it will bring frost early and late with no wintry showers for London!.

Very amazing to see a NW to SE movement of North mid-NE Atlantic High Pressure with NE Canada SW and SE off Greenland through Iceland and Norwegian Sea the belts of Low Pressure and Polar Vortex set up there, we get High Pressure from the North Atlantic instead wow.

.

5-10cm of snow throughout most of the south! Ok will take note for 11th Dec

Very interesting how the northern blocking is developing…….

This at 300hrs...

and the jet…..

[quote=Gandalf The White;945205]

06z delivers a classic Channel Low at T+312 and the south gets buried......

                              --------------------------------------------

Probably buried in jelly...

-5c uppers across the whole of Southern Britain.....Even far SW England....Total snow event up to the Midlands.....If only!

hmmm... an Omega?

When I say model wobble I actually mean a wobble from what most people want rather than the model actually having a bit of a moment.
Anyway, I think Meto has this (as it has previous spells during winter), and thankfully only goes out to 144 so can almost be relied on the be accurate.
If Meto goes with the block tonight at 120 and 144, then I will say that is what is going to happen.

At times like these, it is the written outlook I start to look at and bits on Social Media (Such as BBC tweeting this morning of possible snow showers in the SE thursday and friday). They have a lot more to look at than we do.

Any ideas when the GFS ens will be updating it is still stuck on the 18z from last night

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=London

Synoptics like that are rarer than the proverbial hens teeth.

I think the last time we had a proper (PROPER) Channel low I was one year old. And they don't get more proper than this:

See!

06z has gone off on one