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Rob K
28 November 2017 16:35:09

Interesting stuff from GFS as that low slips under and phases with the Euro trough. It brings in a bit of milder air to the south, but also brings in plenty of moisture, so it would be a messy rain to snow event for many. But of course much too far out for that sort of detail. The broad-scale picture still supports a high to the NE.



Which is nice.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Chunky Pea
28 November 2017 16:36:45

-10 isotherm closer on this run:


 


 


 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Rob K
28 November 2017 16:36:46

UKMO looks less promising IMO - the high looks to be slipping SE rather than heading back to Greenland?


 


Edit: on second thoughts heights are building over Greenland as well - as per GFS the high to the SE has to move out of the way so it is probably similar!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
David M Porter
28 November 2017 16:37:40

So GFS is back in BOOM territory and the UKMO is looking similar at 144

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


Indeed. We just have to hope that the ECM 12z this evening follows suit.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Maunder Minimum
28 November 2017 16:38:55


Interesting stuff from GFS as that low slips under and phases with the Euro trough. It brings in a bit of milder air to the south, but also brings in plenty of moisture, so it would be a messy rain to snow event for many. But of course much too far out for that sort of detail. The broad-scale picture still supports a high to the NE.


 


Which is nice.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


The manner of getting there is odd to say the least, but at least high level blocking is back on the menu.


We have to hope that as next Wednesday the 6th gets closer to the reliable timeframe, that the blocking is still shown.

New world order coming.
David M Porter
28 November 2017 16:39:20


UKMO looks less promising IMO - the high looks to be slipping SE rather than heading back to Greenland?


 


Edit: on second thoughts heights are building over Greenland as well - as per GFS the high to the SE has to move out of the way so it is probably similar!


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Don't really see much if any difference between GFS and UKMO at T+144 tbh, Rob:


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
polarwind
28 November 2017 16:39:46


 


 


hmmm... an Omega?


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

The indications are there and as Gandalf says, there is more strength in the lower jet - the general feel over several outputs, is that the jet is undercutting more as time goes on. We'll soon see if the theme continues and whether a good solid omega block shapes up. 


 

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
Rob K
28 November 2017 16:40:17


 


Don't really see much if any difference between GFS and UKMO at T+144 tbh, Rob:


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif



Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


No you are right - I was focusing too much on the high to the SE but that actually ends up disappearing on the GFS too. 


 


Looks cold and unstable - just about anywhere could cop some snow from this sort of set-up! http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2341.gif


 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
28 November 2017 16:40:58

GFS 12z is definitely up there with the all time December classics! 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
28 November 2017 16:43:17

Temperature gradient anyone?


 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Arcus
28 November 2017 16:45:37
It's about time someone posted the GEM 12z just to redress the balance...
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
doctormog
28 November 2017 16:47:34
The GFS synoptics once again suggests to me that there will be quite a range of options on the ensemble set. Things could really end up anywhere in a week. Cold and northerly, cold and snowy where mild meets cold (to do with position if the Low our west), mild or cold and anticyclonic, or indeed milder and more westerly. Too much uncertainty for any real confidence unless you like emotional roller coasters.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Brian Gaze
28 November 2017 16:52:40

It's about time someone posted the GEM 12z just to redress the balance...

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Is it available? The datasets haven't appeared on CMC which is where I get them from but they may be available elsewhere. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
28 November 2017 16:55:01
I don’t think it (GEM) has updated yet.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Russwirral
28 November 2017 16:58:50

Its always a good sign when you cant actually see the UK 


 



Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Arcus
28 November 2017 17:03:15


 


Is it available? The datasets haven't appeared on CMC which is where I get them from but they may be available elsewhere. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Yes you're right having checked, its normally out by now. I just presumed it showed mild!

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Brian Gaze
28 November 2017 17:04:01

WRT GEM even the initialization data isn't yet available on CMC. In the past I can recall some funny stuff happening with "different" versions of GEM appearing at the same time. Hopefully that won't be the case today.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
fairweather
28 November 2017 17:05:52


Its always a good sign when you cant actually see the UK 


 



Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


S.Essex, 42m ASL
David M Porter
28 November 2017 17:08:35


Its always a good sign when you cant actually see the UK 


 



Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


That sure would be pretty cold were it to verify like that.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Arbroath 1320
28 November 2017 17:09:27
While both GFS 6z and 12z are back on board with a decent cold spell from ~7 December, I can't say I feel very confident that it will work out that way. The link up of the mid-Atlantic High to the Greenland High looks very fragile and and iffy, particularly because it is further out that t144. Short waves popping up at short notice could kill things dead. ECM will be interesting tonight to see if it comes back on board, but even if it does, there seems a long way to go before this one will be settled.
GGTTH
polarwind
28 November 2017 17:29:13


 


That sure would be pretty cold were it to verify like that.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Yes, it would freeze your eyelids together.

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
Downpour
28 November 2017 17:29:36


 


That sure would be pretty cold were it to verify like that.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


 



Meanwhile, news on the other channel that the NOAA have filed this morning's ECM in the shredder, calling it "outlandish". Who would have thought that the ECM would become cannon fodder? Stranger things have happen at sea, I guess. 

Chingford
London E4
147ft
Ally Pally Snowman
28 November 2017 17:38:51

Take a look at the GFS 12z Control - It's utter Snowmegeddon!!! 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
28 November 2017 17:50:05


Take a look at the GFS 12z Control - It's utter Snowmegeddon!!! 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


its a good one, that’s for sure 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
28 November 2017 17:50:56


Take a look at the GFS 12z Control - It's utter Snowmegeddon!!! 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 Looks marginally less snowy than the op run to me? Still wouldn't say no.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
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