Just don't be fooled by the apparent strength of surface pressure values; they can be easily smashed through when they have little 'support' from above (at 500 hPa level) 

tou could be right hopefully not - if you cannot enjoy these charts then maybe cold isn't for you. Part of the fun see what extremes can get churned out and every once in a while they are correct so enjoy the potential as most will be looking for the end if it's snowing out the window!

Well, this is 141 hours. That'll give the Buckie drinkers something to ponder 

You’d be okay if you stopped at that point in this evening’s output 

Here’s a little GEM if anyone is interested (at 144hr)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU12_144_1.png 

Nor I. More just commenting on what they do show up to 144hr. 

Given all that has happened in the model output recently, I think that's a wise policy to adopt SC.

Not a fan of the GEM generally, but it shows what is much more likely to happen than the GFS.

Why is it much more likely to happen?

👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻  That made me lol 😂😂

 

Just thought I'd say - this is the most extreme storm I've seen depicted by GFS across these past 9 years, let alone at a week's range, in terms of what the impacts would be on transport etc.

Thankfully, support from other models and GEFS for a storm of such intensity is minimal.

Different story with respect to the northerly though. Good sharpening of the trough over the US with the cold air enhancing the thermal gradient but not in a configuration conducive to such a rapid flattening of the mid-Atlantic ridge as might otherwise be expected.

Very interesting month ahead it would appear - but only if we can shrug off some issues that are eerily similar to what we had this time last year. A more enthusiastic counter-La Nina push and an E QBO might just allow us to do that but the balance is still a little precarious for now (though it is not considered as much so now as it was even a few days ago!).

It's the most common synoptic follow through, heights raise in the Atlantic and a Low transfers East bringing a northerly down but the damage is already done with Low pressure crossing Greenland and the High topples towards the UK. The GFS is blowing up the Low and stalling the pattern for way too long. I'd be very surprised if the ECM didn't show something very similar to the GEM between T120 and T168.

Why thankfully ??? Bring it on , let’s have real winter weather with widespread heavy snow

If something big, or at least something interesting does come to pass towards the end of next week, then it will be hats off to the GFS, as they would have, as far as I can tell at least, been the first to have picked on the potential. If nothing really much happens (as per the GEM chart posted above) then hats off to the rest of the models for not buying into it. 

That GFS op scenario is really a bit crazy but I guess it is a possibility albeit a very remote one. I wouldn’t be totally surprised for one or more runs in the next few days to show something similiar.

The point I make in the post you refer to, makes but an observation and I think after thirty plus years since we saw significant cold zonal, its a reasonable question to ask. There have been more than a few posts recently and not so recently about 'zonal' always indicating mild or even warm weather. I have over the last few days made the point about the jet and the generally WNW to ESE route it has been taking over the recent past and is forecast to take over the nest couple of weeks or so. 

This is a cold zonal set up and has been generally absent for a long time. But why is it reappearing after so long? Its absence is all too likely to be the result of global warming.

Had a quick skeg at the 2m temp anomalies for Jan 84 (which seems most cited when there is speak of 'cold zonality') and was expecting to see a colder than normal Arctic. Interestingly, this is not the case, but look at those deviations over almost the entirety of the N. American continent. 

We both know the issues associated with precip type parameters at this range. Full thickness is an even poorer measure as it considers the characteristics of the upper troposphere which we care nothing about. Warm sector seclusions are shallow and often have deep cold air above; but warmer air exists at cloud level. 

Surprisingly there are 3 ensemble members that produce a very similar scenario to the op at T+168

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=168

Hard to see much of a difference between the ECM and UKMO at 144hrs. Very similar. 

"Live Compare" on Meteociel is useful for pointing out the differences. ECM has a much flatter profile and a positive tilt in western Greenland so will be poorer for blocking. 

Edit - as shown at 168 where the ECM flattens right out much quicker than the UKMO would (probably!)

Perhaps, but it is still much better in terms of cold than it has been for the last day or two.

Very flat ECM with a really transient northerly, similar to the GEM only quicker to bring back the Atlantic.