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Polar Low
01 December 2017 20:01:52

so did I 



 


I had to doublecheck that those charts we’re not from the op run.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Arcus
01 December 2017 20:18:21

Definitely a shift toward colder 850 spread in the medium to longer term on the 12z ECM ensembles IMBY:



 


 

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Shropshire
01 December 2017 20:36:24


Definitely a shift toward colder 850 spread in the medium to longer term on the 12z ECM ensembles IMBY:



 


 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


 


Clearly , but the synoptics are just not right given what normally follows from the generally agreed position at T144, the ensembles should be treated with caution and don't forget how wrong they were just 3 days ago for the midweek period next week.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Chunky Pea
01 December 2017 20:39:21

Much 'spread' regarding MSLP values, but I'm liking the overall downward trend, even if there is nothing spectacular in the offing. 


 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Chunky Pea
01 December 2017 20:50:15


 


 


Clearly , but the synoptics are just not right given what normally follows from the generally agreed position at T144, the ensembles should be treated with caution and don't forget how wrong they were just 3 days ago for the midweek period next week.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


At first glance, they seem consistent enough with this morning's run (at least in terms of general pattern) but you make a fair point. Will be interesting to see how the 15 dayer will look later. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Polar Low
01 December 2017 21:00:14

no 3 looks like a proper freeze up just for fun of course but also good tight grouping on that set


 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=0&sort=0


Image result for man with a icicle

doctormog
01 December 2017 21:03:23


 


At first glance, they seem consistent enough with this morning's run (at least in terms of general pattern) but you make a fair point. Will be interesting to see how the 15 dayer will look later. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


I don’t have the ECM ensemble data from three days ago but the GFS ones are not much different to the current set except they had the colder air coming in a day or so earlier.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
White Meadows
01 December 2017 21:11:04
CFS finally backed away from the barbecue & deckchair green Christmas it plugged since September:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euT2mMonInd1.gif 

It’s a wonder how/ what data these derive from.
SEMerc
01 December 2017 21:20:58

High Res UKMO T+168 is nice to say the least. Certainly better than the ECM


https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/88883-model-output-discussion-cold-spell-to-end-autumn/?page=84

The Beast from the East
01 December 2017 21:49:47
Yes, the Synoptics look good but will it be cold enough away from northern hills? Down here it looks like cold and wet
"We have some alternative facts for you"
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Steve Murr
01 December 2017 22:05:21
The updated 18z shows the initial battleground further south

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017120118/gfsnh-1-132.png?18 
doctormog
01 December 2017 22:12:36

Yes, the Synoptics look good but will it be cold enough away from northern hills? Down here it looks like cold and wet

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Well the 18z GFS op run is a bit colder than the 12z but your northern hills comment is strange as the synoptics look more wintry than the past couple of days which saw snow on northern beaches. 


The 510dam (yes 510) line reaches the Scottish mainland on this run, so yes cold enough for low ground.


As Steve says the battleground (and cold) are further south on this run.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_150_33.png 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
01 December 2017 22:12:52
GFS still wants blizzards to end next week.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
festivalking
01 December 2017 22:13:50

The updated 18z shows the initial battleground further south

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

">http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017120118/gfsnh-1-132.png?18


 


No surprise if the battleground continues to head south on further runs. No evidence to produce to support this but sure systems like this always track further south with each run. So watch out the channel islands 😉

Dousland, Dartmoor 206 m/asl
Its only going to snow when Gibby says so.
Arcus
01 December 2017 22:17:41

The updated 18z shows the initial battleground further south

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

">http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017120118/gfsnh-1-132.png?18


It's the 18z. The Pub Run. Verifies....oh, actually at that range joint top on the GFS cycle...


Another ground shift potentially. More runs...

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
ballamar
01 December 2017 22:17:55


 


Well the 18z GFS op run is a bit colder than the 12z but your northern hills comment is strange as the synoptics look more wintry than the past couple of days which saw snow on northern beaches. 


The 510dam (yes 510) line reaches the Scottish mainland on this run, so yes cold enough for low ground.


As Steve says the battleground (and cold) are further south on this run.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_150_33.png 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


the channel would be a nice path for the low to go!!

Polar Low
01 December 2017 22:18:26

Whiteout conditions Midlands


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=138&mode=2&carte=1


 


GFS still wants blizzards to end next week.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Polar Low
01 December 2017 22:22:29
Rob K
01 December 2017 22:23:27
The low heads back northwards on this run and out into the North Sea rather than getting stuck over Kent.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Polar Low
01 December 2017 22:30:53

 I guess we can dream


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GFS still wants blizzards to end next week.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

ballamar
01 December 2017 22:34:33
Polar Low
01 December 2017 22:35:08
doctormog
01 December 2017 22:35:17

A classic pub run so far (to be followed by the inevitable Saturday 00z run hangover?)


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_231_1.png


A long way out but not without interest.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
01 December 2017 22:35:29
Some quite amazing output today. This 18Z run sees the jet heading down somewhere into North Africa with cold air from the Atlantic running into cold air over Europe and squeezing the warm fronts to death over the UK.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Joe Bloggs
01 December 2017 22:41:57


 


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Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


oh shut up! 😂😂😂😂😂


I see the potential snow event that I posted about this morning has shifted south. 


Absolutely fascinating output today.


From a purely selfish point of view I want to see a N’ly or NE’ly flow to coincide with all the precipitation. An easterly or SE’ly would result in that dreaded snow shadow come into play for Manchester and parts of the NW. That was a real pain in the arse in 2013. 


 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
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