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Rob K
01 December 2017 12:23:48

GEFS seems to be firming up on a colder pattern from the end of next week, with the milder solutions now reduced to a handful of stragglers.



 


 


Both control and op run showing a sharp cold plunge with 850s dropping by 12C or so within less than half a day.


 


(Cherry) picks of the ensemble are run 3 and run 15.


 



 



 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
polarwind
01 December 2017 12:29:42


 


 


Then after +240 it looks like a cool N westerly from a north west south east jet with perhaps northerly one day of less cold weather. But generally cooler weather more showery. Instead of the usual SW to NE jet bringing in mild weather with wind and rain only. The air is coming from Greenland instead of the Azores - that being said it's a shame we build that weak ridge in the Azores which doesn't help things! - A long way off now but things are looking more positive for wintry weather as we head into Mid December. Impressive about the blocking over the pole. - Looks like an extensive NEGATIVE AO.



 


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

That pattern after 240 would generally give us a cold North Westerly rather than a cool one - especially as the definition of 'cold', 'warm' and 'hot' has changed over the last several years - we saw much more of this sort of flow in the sixties/seventies.

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
polarwind
01 December 2017 12:31:05


Just had a look at all the ECMWF ensembles. They are alot better than the OP implies. The majority are northerlies at day 10 (albeit often imperfect ones). Very few have a dominant Azores high as was indicated on the EPS last time I looked at them all.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

The imperfect ones are much more interesting.

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
polarwind
01 December 2017 12:35:12


At +168 - quite a block right over pole.


 



Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Five major troughs in that pattern is not indicative of locked in 'zonal' and much different to the general winter synoptics of the last 30 years.

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
kinetic
01 December 2017 12:36:42


We should set up a physical manifestation of the Winter Optimism Index and wire it to a generator.


Given the wildly fluctuating emotions displayed by some over the past couple of weeks, the oscillations would likely power a small town.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Also, as a lurker around here, far more predictable than the actual weather.laughing

Saint Snow
01 December 2017 12:44:40


GEFS seems to be firming up on a colder pattern from the end of next week, with the milder solutions now reduced to a handful of stragglers.



 


 


Both control and op run showing a sharp cold plunge with 850s dropping by 12C or so within less than half a day.


 


(Cherry) picks of the ensemble are run 3 and run 15.


 



 



 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


Wow, those ensembles are quite a turnround from some of yesterday's output.


Needless to say, we still need to be wary... there's many a slip twixt cup and lip.


But I'd take p3 (not keen on p15, though... far too dry IMBY )


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Solar Cycles
01 December 2017 12:46:32
Going of the 06z “proper cold zonality could be on the cards for many, the last time such occurred if my memory serves me right is January 1984.
idj20
01 December 2017 13:18:18

 If I was living on the East Coast, this would make my bum twitch with nerves by looking at this, and that's along with spring tides.



But at 7 days, it is a long way off in real forecasting terms and thus subject to change anyway.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Rob K
01 December 2017 13:49:16


 If I was living on the East Coast, this would make my bum twitch with nerves by looking at this, and that's along with spring tides.



But at 7 days, it is a long way off in real forecasting terms and thus subject to change anyway.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


 


Certainly will be a tad bracing on the sea front at Whitby if that comes off. Double wrap your chips.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Downpour
01 December 2017 14:02:57


We should set up a physical manifestation of the Winter Optimism Index and wire it to a generator.


Given the wildly fluctuating emotions displayed by some over the past couple of weeks, the oscillations would likely power a small town.


 


Heartened to see the swing back to cold after milder solutions were to the fore yesterday - but concerned we'll flip back again at some point over the next couple days.


It does demonstrate more than usual how small differences can lead to huge impacts downstream.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


Along similar lines, Brian might like to start a Winter Optimism Futures market, where one could buy, sell, hedge or short. Selling optimism could be a decent strategy for the razor-blade inclined, an insurance policy if you like. 

Chingford
London E4
147ft
warrenb
01 December 2017 14:07:56
My optimism is up about it getting colder again. The ENS are looking good and there are now just a few hints coming through social media that things are going to get a lot colder. Forecasters are just people, and when they get excited they can't help but hint.
Tonbridge 45m 
Hungry Tiger
01 December 2017 14:18:20


 If I was living on the East Coast, this would make my bum twitch with nerves by looking at this, and that's along with spring tides.



But at 7 days, it is a long way off in real forecasting terms and thus subject to change anyway.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


Good post there Ian. I wondered when someone would mention the problems of a storm/tidal surge.

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Chunky Pea
01 December 2017 14:19:24

This morning's EC15 run showing a relatively strong support for some sort of troughing to continue around the North Sea region post day 10 (implying a generally cool mP dominance) with a curiously higher uncertainty regarding what may or may not happen out in the north Atlantic. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
ballamar
01 December 2017 15:19:59
Will the op runs give a little excitement- hoping to see further height rises over Scandi
polarwind
01 December 2017 15:43:41

Going of the 06z “proper cold zonality could be on the cards for many, the last time such occurred if my memory serves me right is January 1984.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

It was certainly around that time. So why is this pattern making another appearance when it seemed to have been banished by global warming?


Intriguing. 

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
nsrobins
01 December 2017 16:10:07
Interesting update from Jam Tamara on the other side. Fans of Scandy blocks should have a read!
Meanwhile impressive consistency in GFS out to +132, with if anything a shallower attack angle on Wednesdays trigger low which can only be a good thing for enhancing the subsequent Northerly.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Rob K
01 December 2017 16:13:31

GFS still very keen on the theme of a snow and rain event around next Thursday. Cold air digging in a little earlier on this run and giving quite a dumping.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Saint Snow
01 December 2017 16:14:30

Interesting update from Jam Tamara on the other side. Fans of Scandy blocks should have a read!
Meanwhile impressive consistency in GFS out to +132, with if anything a shallower attack angle on Wednesdays trigger low which can only be a good thing for enhancing the subsequent Northerly.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 


Granted I've only ever seen snipey comments from people with axes to grind, but I was under the impression her record in terms of forecasting extremes is a little dodgy - or am I being unfairly influenced (I don't read NW)


 


Edit - I know it's been used for a while now, but that nickname 'Jam' is genius


 


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Rob K
01 December 2017 16:16:26

Can't grumble at this output just 6 and a half days out!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
01 December 2017 16:20:01

Some ears in Exeter must be starting to prick up with charts like this flying around.




https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_159_mslp500.png?cb=725


 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ballamar
01 December 2017 16:20:29
If GFS is right stock up record breaking storm incoming
Rob K
01 December 2017 16:23:04

LOL the low just gets stuck and gradually feeds in more mild air, rain followed by 12 hours or more of blizzards followed by more rainy mix in parts, that would be a ridiculous spell of weather.


 


I know GFS snow depth charts are notoriously rubbish but 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
beanoir
01 December 2017 16:23:46


Can't grumble at this output just 6 and a half days out!


 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


bank! 


 

Langford, Bedfordshire
Rob K
01 December 2017 16:25:17


 


bank! 


 


Originally Posted by: beanoir 


 


This time next week? Go on then :)


 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
David M Porter
01 December 2017 16:27:40


 


 


This time next week? Go on then :)


 



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

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