The poor runs from yesterday continue with the models now coming together on the milder spell next week followed by a brief colder plunge behind the system moving W-E later next week. Thereafter, the jet really fires up over the top of the Azores/Atlantic High. 

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Pretty cold ENS from the GFS after the milder push - 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=253&y=38

I wouldn’t say this mornings runs are poor ?? Have to ask , do you really know how to read a weather chart, there is plenty of cold on offer ?

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Yes the charts have a fairly chilly look about them this morning and with lots of low pressure about and a fairly southerly tracking/buckled jet there could be some lively weather at times.

Not "deep cold" but no blowtorches on offer for the foreseeable.

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Snow certainly can’t be ruled out the further North you are 

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I mean, this is more of a cold snap than anything else. The reason people are disappointed is that 1 day is not enough to get cold air established for any meaningful snow outside of northern Scotland. The 552dm line barely hits the south of Greenland; there is just not enough upstream amplification for any of this to be that interesting.

But as always anything at 168h can change. 

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Do we have some form of guide for Ian, as he clearly can't read charts that show no form of zonality at all.
The charts today show some good old fashioned battle ground scenarios and never mild (after next Monday/Tuesday).

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But the pattern is rather zonal; everything is moving west-east as opposed to north-south as would happen in a meridonal situation. The cold snap currently forecasted for late next week is not extended because the amplification is not enough (and imo not enough to call the pattern meridonal either). The unfortunate reality is that the models, as they currently stand, are not going for any kind of extended cold next week.

But like I say, this can still change.

 

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No extended cold that’s for sure, but having browsed all the output it does look fairly chilly overall with the chance of snow, especially if you are further north. The GEFS for example look fairly cold. 

No sign of a sustained wintry spell that’s for sure, but equally no sign of business as usual. There is a notably mild day forecast around T+120 but that’s about it. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850liverpool0.png?cb=48

I guess it depends how easy you are to please. The low pressure system crossing the country on the GFS has certainly raised my eyebrows - I wonder if there would be much snow on its northern flank as it moves through central Britain? 

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Yes Joe, a good summary. The GFS ensemble data has the (t850hPa) mean consistently below average in the longer term.

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But apparently because it runs West to East then it is zonal you silly people.

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These are of course the charts I’m talking about. Way too far in the future to take seriously, but the low is interacting with some very cold air. Worth an analysis thread if the theme is maintained. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_159_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_159_2.png

From those charts alone it could be a big snow event for Glasgow and Edinburgh but it’s too far ahead for fine details. 

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Indeed. It’s all about managing expectations in the British Winter, and if you’re after snow. Compared to recent years it’s looking lively and cool at times but I have to agree with Q in that what momentum there was for something cold and sustained has waned somewhat.

From a purely selfish POV the only thing that really cuts it for here is s Scandy High, and the embryonic hints at one is something I’d be looking to keep appearing.

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If you're going to regard anything that's not blocked as 'zonality' then perhaps that's fair. Even then, zonality comes in different guises and at worst this looks like 'cold zonality' - but even then that's debatable because none of the models shows that in the reliable timeframe.

It's taken the models a couple of days to work out what's likely to happen next week, particularly the behaviour of the LP in mid-Atlantic. It seems likely that this will be the system that opens the door to the next cold incursion late next week.  All three main models agree on the evolution but the exact shape and timing varies a little.

Beyond that? Still unclear but a flow from north of west seems favoured. That's where we were a month or so ago, so a recurring theme perhaps. Coldest further north; the south most prone to milder incursions.

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In fairness, there seems to be more cool plunges than mild in this morning's runs. GFS looking a bit livelier than the ECM overall, so I hope it has picked up on something.

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As long as we’re not average or above, I have hopes for something decent developing later down the line.
An easterly is the dream for many in the south so I’m always looking for this first. The met Office long ranger hints of possible battle ground scenarios and presuming this would be associated with a Scandy block, I’ll be keeping a close eye on any signs as the month progresses.

UKMO close to a northerly at t168 as a deep low begins to pull away into the north sea high pressure is quickly following on behind it

At present time snaps rahter than spells is the form horse but with each passing colder phase comes the chance of something more wintry for most as those SST’s will begin to feel the effects of a sinking jet on a NW/SE axis, also we can’t rule out heights becoming established over Scandinavia later on in the month.

will be interesting what happens on this morning 6z run. The last 2 runs have some a slight wobble back to the northerly coming in earlier and hitting further south earlier.

We will see...

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Certainly some snow possibilities @168 according to the 6z

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Definitely a rain to snow event for much of the country here Marcus. Even dear old Witney gets in on the act.

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Nice run from GFS .... one run and all that but a good run 

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I think you will see your snow shield knocked down this winter mate 

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It does appear to be flopping back to more of a colder solution. Less of a toppler situation too, with perhaps a more established LP to our east than a transient one.

If that LP decides to head a little further south - could we be walking into a Scandi High Situation?

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That's literally the definition of zonal!

If the large scale circulation is flowing along lines of constant latitude (i.e from west to east) then that is considered zonal. A meridonal pattern would have the jet stream buckle well to the north or south so the large scale circulation is north to south (or south to north).

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