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The Beast from the East
02 December 2017 19:38:30

the models do seem to be backing away from sustained heights over Greenland but we stay on the cold side of the jet 


A dangerous path to tread for those wanting a long spell and the extreme cold in north America spilling into the atlantic could fire up the jet more than the models are showing

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Maunder Minimum
02 December 2017 19:42:45


the models do seem to be backing away from sustained heights over Greenland but we stay on the cold side of the jet 


A dangerous path to tread for those wanting a long spell and the extreme cold in north America spilling into the atlantic could fire up the jet more than the models are showing


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Depends on the direction in which the jet is fired up though - if the LPs keep tracking to our south, a winterwonderland - to our north and our version of hell.


 

New world order coming.
The Beast from the East
02 December 2017 19:47:59


 


Depends on the direction in which the jet is fired up though - if the LPs keep tracking to our south, a winterwonderland - to our north and our version of hell.


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


I know where I'll put my money on! GEM has done well recently


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Arcus
02 December 2017 19:54:28


 


I know where I'll put my money on! GEM has done well recently


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


The only model that GEM occasionally outperforms on verification is GFS - it has never to my knowledge got near UKMO or ECM.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
David M Porter
02 December 2017 19:58:59


Just maybe, this season we have the perfect combination of events. The sun is spotless again and November had a very low sunspot count for this stage of the cycle. The QBO is in its easterly phase. ENSO has a growing La Nina (although that could mean an early end to winter, it promotes our chances this month) and the PV is disorganised, with the Strat all over the place.


Game on I hope for a memorable spell of glorious winter weather before Christmas (provided the models don't backtrack in the next 48 hours as they so often do).


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


One never knows, Maunder. We don't have to go back that many years to find the last time we got lucky with winter synoptics which delivered memorable wintry spells; only 7 years ago this month and that was just a year after we had had a winter with a sustained severe spell. Before 2009, some parts of the south I believe had not seen any real amount of snow since Feb 1991.


As others have commented, the models at the moment at least do not appear to be running the the sort of script that the last four winters have followed. Instead of HP often being focused in central Europe, what we have been seing of late seems to be a tendency to have it centred in the mid-atlantic while attempting to ridge north to Greenland.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Polar Low
02 December 2017 19:59:39

Ian already knows that Peter he is not daft he is being crafty about a mild break thru


quote=Gandalf The White;946965]


 


What happens between T+144 and 168 isn't a 'topple'.   A toppler is when the ridge is driven forward and away by the jet stream; in this case the ridge doesn't move E/SE and that's why the pattern doesn't flatten out.


In summary what we have at the moment is a transition on Thursday to an Arctic plunge. The northerly will last at least 48 hours. Beyond that various options are on the table but I'd say the chance of a return to anything mild in the foreseeable future (next 10 days) is close to zero, at least for now.


Polar Low
02 December 2017 20:00:58

dec81 no sorry no 11 looks to be the freezer run tonight just 126 away


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=11&ech=126&mode=0&carte=1


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?ext=1&x=&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&ville=Londres


 



 


The ECM partially topples but of course if heights remain low over Europe then there can't be the sort of transition that the GEM shows to a flat pattern. Clearly a lot of options on the table from a standard northerly to something akin to Dec 81.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Polar Low
02 December 2017 20:08:46
Arcus
02 December 2017 20:14:06

As you might expect the ECM Op is on the colder side of the 12z ENS spread in terms of the 850s (IMBY):


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Chunky Pea
02 December 2017 20:17:45

Here is how the 850 hPa temp anom looks on the ECM mean tonight over yonder. Cold air beginning to feed into the Atlantic. As MM said the other day, it could fire up the northern arm of the jet, or the southern arm. Much hangs in the balance I'd say with a lot more twists and turns to come. 


 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Polar Low
02 December 2017 20:21:22

Not bad you know 126 hours away and with those wind gusts lovely stuff


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Hungry Tiger
02 December 2017 20:36:03


ECM teases with disrupting trough:



 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 



I don't think I've ever seen a synoptic pattern like that.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Hungry Tiger
02 December 2017 20:37:19


 


That's an extraordinary chart



Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I know what you mean - I've never seen the likes of that before.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Gandalf The White
02 December 2017 20:39:04


 


I know where I'll put my money on! GEM has done well recently


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



I have noticed a vaguely entertaining habit amongst one or two contributors of picking the model with the least favourable evolution and claiming that it's one of the best performing ones.


Is this disappointment insurance, by any chance?


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
02 December 2017 20:43:38


 


I know what you mean - I've never seen the likes of that before.


 


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


In my experience when you get sliders they generally tend to dissipate, presumably because there isn't much of a jet stream to energise and drive them. In this case it does something very unusual in that it continues to deepen.


If - a big if, but still - this verified it would be memorable for the south and parts of the east.


 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Polar Low
02 December 2017 20:46:13

congratulations for noticing Peter most of the time its best ignored



 



I have noticed a vaguely entertaining habit amongst one or two contributors of picking the model with the least favourable evolution and claiming that it's one of the best performing ones.


Is this disappointment insurance, by any chance?


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Chiltern Blizzard
02 December 2017 21:05:37


dec81 no sorry no 11 looks to be the freezer run tonight just 126 away


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=11&ech=126&mode=0&carte=1


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?ext=1&x=&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&ville=Londres


 


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Remarkably 19 out of 20 ensemble members reach have 850 temps of -9c or lower!

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Arcus
02 December 2017 21:18:55


 Is this disappointment insurance, by any chance?


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Indeed. If it comes off then no-one picks you up on your cynical view, as its all "Woo-Woo Cold! Snow!" and you can hide in the euphoria. If it doesn't then you claim the high ground with a quick "I told you so."

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Shropshire
02 December 2017 21:24:09


 



I have noticed a vaguely entertaining habit amongst one or two contributors of picking the model with the least favourable evolution and claiming that it's one of the best performing ones.


Is this disappointment insurance, by any chance?


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


It's called past experience Peter 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Gandalf The White
02 December 2017 21:30:37


 


 


It's called past experience Peter 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Yes, my glass is also half-empty at the moment.



 


Not long before the next outbreak of model output.  I predict another pub run bonanza....


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
02 December 2017 21:31:37


congratulations for noticing Peter most of the time its best ignored


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Yes, sorry. Sometimes an open goal is hard to resist.



Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Rob K
02 December 2017 21:56:54
It's really bizarre seeing charts with a huge deep orange Azores High and yet still showing cold for the UK.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Polar Low
02 December 2017 22:14:58

Lucky for Micheal, something a bit heaver for north eastern coast


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Karl Guille
02 December 2017 22:19:05
LOL, 2 days of snow so far IMBY on the 18z! Can't ever recall settling snow from the north so I will take this with a pinch of salt but to be honest I'd be more than happy just to see falling snow, especially at this time of the year. 2m temps here probably circa 5 degrees in this type of set up but closer to zero on the south coast.
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017120218/gfs-2-162.png?18 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Polar Low
02 December 2017 22:24:04

snow showers continue 


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