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It's looking quite promising if you're hoping for cold weather in the run up to Christmas. Onwards with the discussion...
Some impressively low 500-1000hPa thicknesses for some northern parts on some of the charts this evening (including the ECM 12z run which is just emerging) http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_120_1.png Likewise with the GFS which keeps the values sub 520dam here for 5 days or so! http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample_C.shtml?text=EGPD/
Ediit: At a glance the 1z ECM run may not seem that special but it is rather cold indeed http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_168_1.png
EDit: At a glance the 1z ECM run may not seem that special but it is rather cold indeed http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_168_1.png
Originally Posted by: doctormog
Yes the very cold air aloft results in some very impressive CAPE values. Good potential for some convective snow provided other factors line up.
ECM teases with disrupting trough:
Originally Posted by: Whether Idle
Yeh that's the holy grail.
My eyes are drawn to that potentially sharp trough developing out in the Atlantic.
Originally Posted by: Quantum
That could be a new film: TWO members and the Holy Grail for cold!
ECM @216 potentially v snowy for some
Originally Posted by: Gooner
That's an extraordinary chart
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2017120212/JN192-21.GIF?02-12
JMA shows the same
Think I’d be very happy with the ECM outcome, stunning doesn’t get near to describing it
Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White
Chart of the Year incredible
Is Ian Brown about???
Originally Posted by: moomin75
I haven’t been on much today but the last post I read from him was saying something along the lines of the ECM is the one which has probably got the best handle of the situation.
Can't ever recall the ECM producing something like this before in just over 11 years as a member here. This has surely to rival even the best model runs we had in Dec 2009, Jan 2010 and Dec 2010, IMHO.
As is the way all eyes now on the ECM ensemble charts. Maybe the op will be well supported.
Originally Posted by: squish
Stunning run as well from the JMA. Phenomenal output tonight. Have to say prefer ecm to even GFS
Originally Posted by: David M Porter
The whole pattern looks weird; certainly one of the weirdest I have encountered. Not very often you see Atlantic lows dive bombing into Europe from that particular direction.
The ECM partially topples but of course if heights remain low over Europe then there can't be the sort of transition that the GEM shows to a flat pattern. Clearly a lot of options on the table from a standard northerly to something akin to Dec 81.
Originally Posted by: Shropshire
What happens between T+144 and 168 isn't a 'topple'. A toppler is when the ridge is driven forward and away by the jet stream; in this case the ridge doesn't move E/SE and that's why the pattern doesn't flatten out.
In summary what we have at the moment is a transition on Thursday to an Arctic plunge. The northerly will last at least 48 hours. Beyond that various options are on the table but I'd say the chance of a return to anything mild in the foreseeable future (next 10 days) is close to zero, at least for now.
Just maybe, this season we have the perfect combination of events. The sun is spotless again and November had a very low sunspot count for this stage of the cycle. The QBO is in its easterly phase. ENSO has a growing La Nina (although that could mean an early end to winter, it promotes our chances this month) and the PV is disorganised, with the Strat all over the place.
Game on I hope for a memorable spell of glorious winter weather before Christmas (provided the models don't backtrack in the next 48 hours as they so often do).