The outlook remains very chilly this morning.

We seem to have lost the sustained Greenland blocking, and from a selfish POV this is a shame as this part of the country would have been pummelled by snow showers off the Irish Sea if yesterday’s runs had verified (they still might).

Once the high topples, it remains cold http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_171_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_171_10.png

GEFS remain cold with again a very impressive snow row for Liverpool. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850liverpool0.png?cb=41

ECM doesn’t maintain the Greenland block either but again doesn’t break down to anything mild and we do have a risk of snow in places. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_168_2.png

Personally I would have preferred something akin to yesterday’s 06z GFS but there are bound to be further changes to come.

The ECM op certainly gives some snow potential btw. 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/snow-depth-in/20171213-0000z.html

This is the snow depth chart for Tuesday 12th December. 😍 Disclaimer - not sure how accurate these are. 

Thursday night really does look bitterly cold.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_123_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_123_2.png

Just look at those uppers. Snow for many in NW Scotland - including for places that don’t usually get snow - Western Isles etc.

Unfortunately we have lost the WNW’ly tilt shown yesterday for Friday onwards so inland areas of NW England, north Midlands etc may miss out - although these are fine details which could change. For the bulk of the country, the progged northerly flow looks fairly dry today.  

Only for some.

Here's the GFS overnight minima (between midnight and 6 AM on Friday morning). As you'll see, the majority of England at least sees above-zero minima - no surprise, really, given that it'll be windy. Further north, where there is deeper cold aloft, it does indeed remain below freezing and yes, in the wind it'll feel perishingly cold. Areas in the north and west of the UK will doubtless see some beefy snow showers piling in, as the relatively warm Atlantic will encourage convective activity.

Further south and east it just looks somewhat chilly rather than bitterly cold. I'd reserve the latter for a proper easterly - which, alas, seems as unlikely as ever.

Altnaharra may see a few flakes. 😉

I was of course referring to a finger of very cold uppers approaching from the NW. Definitely not an evening to be stuck outside in NW Scotland. As you say, the SE looks relatively balmy. 

A cold and snowy Mean day 10 from the ecm especially for the North. Not far of something very special there must be some very cold and snowy ensembles mixed in.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2402.html

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Looking alright for many, but for me, just looks like a continuation of the current and seemingly eternal limbo state, with anything remotely interesting placed too far east with very little of interest coming in from the west. Will be lucky if I even see an air frost during the upcoming spell, but with a keen NW wind at times, I am sure it will still feel cold, without it actually being so temp wise. 

I’ve come to the conclusion that these snow depth charts must be absolute bobbins, surely? 

this is member 2 of the 00z ECM ensembles.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/m2_snow-depth-in/20171213-0000z.html

Nearly every ensemble member has notable snow cover over most of the country, especially the NW and Wales.

I am highly suspicious. 

UKMO at t168 is poor if it is long lasting cold you want

Why? A foot of snow on high ground isn't exactly spectacular is it? Especially if that run has continuous beefy showers (I don't know if it does)

 LLTNP 105m asl 

FWIW, that shows another northerly blast lining up - note the high coming east of Canada, being pumped up by the low further southwest.

Yes but 8 inches of snow in Manchester is virtually unheard of. I think perhaps the model is assuming everywhere in the UK lies above 300 metres ASL. 😂

I’ll admit I wasn’t sure why it was being shown as a “poor” chart. It’s very difficult to decipher given we can’t see the high latitudes. 

As Darren says it shows another northerly lining up. 

I thought it was WSI that provided the data for that, rather than ECM. Then again, it's been a few years since I had an iPhone!

Yr.no uses the raw ECM data:

http://om.yr.no/about/

https://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Yateley/long.html

And that shows rain for Yately (albeit with a temperature of zero at one stage - icy cold rain!)

The 'WeatherPro' app on Android also uses ECM data and is handy for getting basic info from it for one's locality. 

Indeed. I don’t expect GFS 144 charts to be close to reality and therefore am rarely surprised or disappointed the stellar charts of apocalyptic proportions dissolve to a sleety morning come the time. It is and always has been thus 😎😉

I’ll add however the longer term still holds potential so long as the PV remains disrupted. 

06z GFS looking cold and wintry so far. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_141_1.png

Cold air gets in just after t+96 so getting towards reliable territory. 👍