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on the other side they talking about a snow armrgeon if the models are right !!!
Originally Posted by: tinybill
Armrgeon? Is that the same as a snowmaggedon?
Sounds good!
Originally Posted by: David M Porter
Yes good stuff all round tonight even the Scrooge GEM is half decent.
Some stunning ENS from GEFS for Monday 1th
eg control,2,3,4,5,8,913,17.
Looks like op is a milder outlier.
The peak for snow cover across the country occurs on Saturday morning on the 12z run. Pretty much all of Scotland and rather more than half of England and Wales.
Yes, thanks for that stating of the blatantly obvious.
Originally Posted by: doctormog
No problem, I thought I'd best keep it simple for you.
I see the BBC have mentioned the risk of blizzard conditions in northern parts at the end of the working week in association with the low pressure system. We will find out shortly if the 12z runs stick with that theme.
I thought he meant on Friday due to the strength of the northerly which I know is caused by the low but I took it to be blizzards from the northerly showers and disturbances other than the fronts associated with the low.
Getting closer to reality now. I've just ordered shopping to arrive on Thursday just in case 😁
Originally Posted by: westv
I don't know how to spell armagedon either. I'ts not the end of the world!
Originally Posted by: fairweather
I realise it is easy to confuse Dorset with Cape Wrath
Very good agreement in the GFS 12z ensemble set for the next 7 days. Note these are also for Aberdeen rather than Dorset
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3
Glenogle wrote:
Yes you’re right about the northerly/Friday thing.
I'll be looking to see what the UKMO shows at T168 - remember if there is to be a wedge of heights develop to the North of the UK, the NWP will not pick it up till it is around day 6/7 away.
Believe it or not these are the short ensembles for Guernsey!http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2017120312/graphe3_1000_218.94000244140625_250.4199981689453___.gif
Originally Posted by: Karl Guille
Impressive!
Met O 144 uppers - a cold run by recent standards, -8 quite widely available in the UK down the spine in a cold NWly, probably quite dry.:
Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White
I can’t help but laugh how Blackburn and its surrounding areas are in a snow free zone. 😂😂😂
Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles
Nice little gap over my house too! 😂😂
In all seriousness this setup for 6am on Friday is spot on for our part of the world. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_114_1.png
At that range however it is highly likely to change. Hopefully it won’t revert to more of a NNW’ly - that’s very possible.
Originally Posted by: Shropshire
I think thats what you call straw clutching !
Yes, especially for the time of year but of course with a NNW I realise that it is unlikely that we would get snow, or at least not on the ground! Fascinating stuff all the same!
Very unusual the way the low behaves in this output. I wonder why the 00z’s wobbled? Things have really flipped back again to prolonged cold, which is quite rare in such a short space of time.
Originally Posted by: White Meadows
i wouldn't call the 12Z prolonged cold exactly. There are cold and mild(er) interludes. Better than most Decembers though...
of course, it would just be typical of my own fortunes if the whole of Scotland ended up getting that snow except for Edinburgh which once again got nothing, which seems to been the general way of things recently.
The snow edge literally stops on my doorstep. I could put on foot in the grey, and the other in the yellow.
Am I alone in thinking the UKMO is rather underwhelming compared to other models? High pressure seems to be far closer to the UK.
Originally Posted by: Rob K
I saw that, but as I said when I posted the 850s, it is cold and drier, and has to be an option at this range. Best to be cautious beyond t96.
Such a long way out and this is all just for fun really but this does tie in to what Gav's weather video's mentioned and other models etc about cold and blocking from mid January:Run the model sequence from 15th
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=894&mode=0&carte=0&run=0
Retrogression? http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1074&mode=0&carte=0&run=0