It's not , if factors are not supportive of the jet pushing over the top - and I don't believe they are - them the NWP has to work out another solution and that's not easy from 6/7 days out.

The GFS seems to be consistently finding solutions.

ECM looks like a sinker. Seems the euros are not keen on propping up the block

It’s only out to 120hr on my machine. Got a link to the later parts of the run?

If I had to bet on the rest of the run I would go for a less cold blip then another colder incursion.

Its not letting me post image for some reason

But the 144 is a slider scenario. Could produce more snow but a dangerous evolution for those wanting a long spell

As long as the High does not take up position over France or Iberia and remains roughly over the Azores or in the mis-atlantic, there is always a chance of the cold coming back quickly, IMO. What ECM is showing doesn't look to be that far off what GFS has been indicating for after next weekend.

Thus far

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

heights to the nw completely drain away by 168 but we are still on the cold side of the jet, but no cold enough for snow at low levels in the south

Pressure remains high and alternates between 1030 and 1045mb over the Arctic - Quite a block despite milder hints in FI, the PV looks split.

Not sure I would call any of the 12z’s disappointing 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

To me, armagedon means we're doomed.

Synoptically the ECM is a stunning run! 

The uppers at first glance are disappointing I agree, but they’re not the be all and end all. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

the south east would be buried under that 

They are if you live where I do. Just looks cold and wet for me. utterly miserable

But favoured spots on higher ground or generally north and eastern areas will do ok

what we need to look for is a pressure rise over scandi. That's the only way to sustain this

its not a wet fart Beast its generally a cold and snowy run for many cheer up for once.

TBH I think you need someone fairly clued up to decipher the actual surface conditions that ECM would bring.

It’s a fairly complicated setup and I’m not too sure myself. 

Just saying rain because uppers are above -5C could be too simplistic - although I’m not saying that scenario isn’t likely, I just don’t know. 

Darren ( Retron ) is your man .....I’m pretty sure -5 isn’t the be all and end all but Dazza is the boy

Japs

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=120&mode=1&nh=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=144&mode=1&nh=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=168&mode=1&nh=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=180&mode=1&nh=1

Happy for the UK who will see some snow in parts from this. A total non-event for me though if tonight's ECM comes to pass with no hope of anything interesting all kicking off weather-wise. 

A least there is a nice moon out tonight. Almost as bright as day, only far more enthralling. Reminded me of this beautiful line: 

"There are nights when the wolves fall silent and only the moon howls"