Cold for 24-36 hours or so, I meant after that. 

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I don't see this week's synoptics as offering much to anywhere other than the usual suspects -  east and west coasts with snow showers, some accumulations on hills in the north, but central and southern England dry and cold once Thursday's front is through.

Next week has an interesting array of southerly tracking lows which might - or might not, that being FI - bring some snow action further south.

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looking like a brief snap before the northern jet fires up as usual with the deep cold coming off the eastern seaboard, but at least no overly mild weather is on the horizon so it will feel seasonal

 

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I just looked at Simon King's forecast on the BBC Weather website and in that, he mentions northerly winds at the weekend. However, the wind arrows which he was showing us at that time appeared to coming more from the NW rather directly from the north. Furthermore, the actual charts which the BBC show for the end of the week also show more of a NW wind direction rather than a direct northerly. With that, I would imagine that the even the likes of Aberdeen would be struggling to get any snow from that (although the west coast would probably do OK from that) and so, I can see this turning in the sort of event once again where we could easily have Richard from Aberdeen once again complaining about the lack of snow in his area from yet another "joke" of a northerly in another thread. Furthermore, the maximum temperatures which are being shown by the BBC are shown to be somewhere in the range of 3-5°C which still isn't as cold as the northerlies which I can remember from the past, where we would be struggling to get above freezing during the day.

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No complaints from me about the model runs this morning. Yes, none of them show a raging easterly developing or anything like that but neither do they show a likely repeat of December 2015.

Glass half-full for me.

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Morning,

I hope you are all doing well!

This Thread always makes me laugh, the weather will very rarely please everyone,

I think long-term signals show a lot of promise, nothing mild and zonal on the horizon, I also think as we move through December, the cold pooling out to our east will become more prominent, it's been something I've been keeping an eye on. so watch this space.

On to Friday and the weekend, I think snow showers could pop up anywhere, no massive accumulations away from western and northern parts but we are only in the first week of December! so people need to relax, at the end of the day, it's just the weather.

 

Dean 

 

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Good summary.There is a lot going in the models next week in terms of sliders/reeboots/channel lows etc.The outputs will certainly keep us on our toes -with rain or snow on a knife edge.

A golden rule to remember is that the prospect and expectation of snow are generally more enjoyable than the reality. 

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😂😂😂 So, so true.

north westerlies usually deliver for Aberdeen and most of the shire. If it veers WNW then only the northern coast (+ 10-15 miles inland)tends to get clipped. 

Ian Fergusson‏

Much as previously billed it continues to appear that after Thursday, a fair stretch beckons of generally below avg temperatures onwards to at least mid-Dec (based on the ECMWF model, versus climatology). Glad I found my gloves.

Bar beasts post ( whatever charts he’s viewing 🤪 )then the main theme remains much the same with the GFS more pleasing on the eye whilst the ECM and UKMO less so but still maintains a cold theme overall.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=fax&model=fax

 

Interesting feature running south through Ireland and Western UK on Thursday night/Friday. The feature is inside the 528 dam line, so it might bring something more substantial to these parts later in the week. If it verifies, of course....

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Very interesting 

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You could certainly do well out of that in your neck of the woods, I would imagine. Less so for me down here but you never know. As I say, let's just hope it verifies...

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Hate to say and see this but this looks more and more north westerly!? Thank northerly? - HP looks further south and LP further NE!?

 

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Interesting 06z. Colder, and another slider around +168

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Fantastic 06z GFS 

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Observed a week or so back that more back that fora really cold northerly LP needed to be located close to east of England.Also observed that models often started off with this set up but that gradually nearer the time LP location tended to shift further NE bringing in a more north westerly flow.Looks as if this may happen.

I've certainly seen a far worse runs for cold at this time of year, that's for sure.

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Agreed.  Based on the fact there will be more flip flops to be had.. the general picture is one that is very encouraging.  

 

The overall picture for the end of this week has tempered some what.. but it appears that has been replaced by perhaps better longevity, or along those lines, with Cold being the dominant feature in some way.

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I'm not entirely sure what people are expecting to see, but the GFS 06z run is great. and looks like another cold shot after a midweek warm up next week.

 

Also as I mentioned in my previous post, watch the cold pooling start to build in North Scandinavia!

 

Dean

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On the 06Z the first one is again too far south but at T180 a second one just about delivers!

Hints of an easterly in FI too. 

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Crazy end to GFS - Scandi freezer will it reach us all

Not sure where Darren is at the moment (Retron), but as with myself, he is an advocate of the 2 to 3 attempts before success, and I think that is exactly what we are seeing now. I know it is the end of the GFS, but again and Easterly is there.
It is like a wave breaking over a dam, and needs a few attempts to do it, I think we are going to see a pattern swap (W-E) and the waves are lapping at the to p of the dam.

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