Yes I agree, and quite at odds with the GFS which as Brian says has trended a little colder this evening. Oh the joys of model watching!

Hopefully ECM can beef up the cold for us.

Quite odd just how different GFS and ECM are in terms of 850's from T72 where they're similar to T96 where they're not 

The knock on effect seems to be LPs coming through further North and more developed than on GFS with correspondingly warmer (and rainier) weather on the ground

Always worrying to see the best verifying model finding one of the warmer evolutions at relatively close range, hopefully it's a bit of an outlier and drifts back towards the GFS a bit. It does show I guess that whereas the GFS manages to do things favourably for deeper cold and more snow opportunities if you tweak things slightly it's chilly and wet rather than very chilly with some snow if people get lucky (in terms of slider lows).

Horror show

Your a laugh , it’s hardly a horror show

long fetch SWlies would fall into that category 

Fairenongh but its cold rain all the way from day 6. Compared to ukmo and gfs its crap. Hopefully it's wrong.

Cheers Arcus. Can see the logic behind the label, but it still gives me a laugh when I see it applied in a post. 

Yes clearly the Azores High and therefore the diving Low must be a good deal further SW on a number of the ECM members.

hello what's your thoughts on where this will end up? Scandi high or zonal?? 

The first thing to note is the ensembles.

We are where we always are - looking for cross-model and ensemble support and focussing on the reliable timeframe. 

The ECM op develops that slider low significantly more than the mean of the ensemble suite and I suspect that is what takes the track further to the NE.  We're looking 6 days ahead here and this is too tricky to call with any precision at that range.

I think a return to conventional zonality is unlikely until at least after mid-month, there is persitent Euro troughing and a disorganised PV/jet. I would not expect to see the possibility of a Scandi High until January. 

I have asked before and heard it used back then but never got and answer or PM so I've asked again but thanks for your kind explanation Chunky! (NOT!)

For what it's worth, the ECM 12z op doesn't look an overly mild run to me at least. I guess that some of the concern expressed above is a lot to do with the chances of snowfall to lower levels in parts of the south.

Not just the south David, but you’re right it is not a mild run, it’s just a comparative thing. My mind will be more at rest if the pub run maintains the cold to the level of 12s GFS op in the shortish to medium term.

Thanks Arcus - so it's a way of describing the HP but in TWO language, same as the Bartlett High!? Ok thanks.

The snow cover chart for the 12z ECM shows snow from that slider on Sunday down as far as London and across most of East Anglia before it turns to rain somewhere before 6am.  Nothing south of the M4 corridor.

I think lower levels up north are at risk, too. Even with the latest ECM run.

At first glance, the ECM mean charts would be more encouraging for cold weather fans than the op. 

Yes, I would agree with that. There are definitely colder opinions in the ensemble suite than the op run. If the GFS 18z is okay in terms of cold I would reserve judgement about the ECM until after tomorrow’s 00z runs.

UKMO 168 has a nice slider across the SW