Bartlett High is a "semi-official" (or at least long established) terminology. Murr sausage is just TWO silliness AFAIK.

Not if it's only affecting Scotland... If it might get windy in Englandshire, then a named storm is likely

FWIW I'm still hopeful of the Russian/Scandi high making an appearance.  Hints have been modeled in FI and if we continue see lower heights in to Europe I believe this is a possibility.

Once again even at an early stage the GFS op run seems colder than the ECM 12z was http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_75_1.png 

A spot of low “feels like/wind chill” there.

Edit - very consistent with once again 514dam air here -same as it was on the 12z but much lower than the 12z ECM http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_84_1.png 

Then Steve Murr had taken the throne after referencing the sausage like high pressure scenario year after year?

ECM perhaps siding near to, but not quite as chilly as the GFS for the 00z set?

The pub run settles on a Cheshire Gap streamer for Friday. Similar set up to the first dump of Jan 2013 down here, a wetish snow affair which was followed 48 hrs later by a bizarre system that tracked north from France and delivered a more serious dump on the Sunday. Would have been very disruptive had it not fallen on a weekend. Great weekend that - snow on lying snow in London.

Which run? The GFS has been consistent yet you would back one individual operational run of the ECM? Why? Just because it is mild? If the 00z run is colder than the GFS I’m guessing you will still back it or will you shift your Eeyore’s gloomy place analysis to the next mildest option?

18z has shifted the first slider west, as is always possible, and it misses almost completely.

Presumably that's good from a longevity of cold point of view?

 LLTNP 105m asl 

We shall see but I think the second (and likely more potent) slider will hit the UK.

The second slider appears to be at a slightly more favourable angle to produce something wintry.

There we go, an upgrade on the 12

the second looks ok though. 

Maybe the "halfway house" between ECM and GFS would hit the jackpot!

Evening all 😊

My favourite chart of the day. And it’s only at T+78! 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK18_78_43.png

Why

Technically speaking though, a weather system will be classed as a named storm if there is at least an amber warning issued for that by the Met Office in the UK, or at least an orange warning issued for that in the Irish Republic issued by Met Eirann with that name being officially designated by whichever of those two bodies was the first to give out such warnings.

If the Met Office are doing their job properly, they are supposed to cover the whole of the UK and not just England. This means that if they are the ones who issue those warnings (and thus give such a system its name), this should therefore by rights, result in that system then being classed as a named storm even if these warnings only affect a small part of Scotland and nowhere else in the UK due to the fact that Scotland is itself, part of the UK and therefore, part of the area which is covered by the UK Met Office.

That is why if there is a forecast of possible storm force northerlies in parts of Scotland towards the end of this week from this particular weather system which could therefore potentially result in an amber warning there, that has to then lead to the possibility of that system then being officially named as Storm Caroline which is the next name on that list after all.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=72&carte=2000

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=96&carte=2000

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=120&carte=2000

Faxes out to 120h look pretty dry for most.

Very early days yet. The weekend "slider" is just starting to come into view on the high res models.

Here it is on the ICON 18z T120 chart

Here is GFS 18z at the same time - completely different - much further south. As ever lots more runs needed. The track of this won't be clear until we get inside T48.

Because it is currently the milder? I would back the GFS if it was the milder. Just because historically the milder solution has been more common in the last few years. No reason to say it will be this time and all the solutions are cold but that's just the way it's been so many times before. But frankly and based on the facts, either solution is possible and different people's speculation won't make one more likely than the other.

Not how the Beeb see it