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White Meadows
04 December 2017 22:59:28

I wonder where the later stages of the 18Z will sit in the ensembles? 😂😉
I also wonder why Ian hasn’t commented on it yet?

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Someone said he’s eating omelette tonight.

tallyho_83
04 December 2017 23:05:52

I wonder where the later stages of the 18Z will sit in the ensembles? 😂😉
I also wonder why Ian hasn’t commented on it yet?

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 


I see a return to zonal end of 18z GFS. After that start of an easterly on the 12z run. Will see!


Plenty of wintry/snowy etc weather between now and then which is good. - So not too concerned yet.


 

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
04 December 2017 23:07:22


 


Quite a flip in the space of a few days!


 

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Rob K
04 December 2017 23:07:34
The latter stages of the 18Z GFS shows what can happen if that big chunk of PV in Canada heads too far out way. Hello jet, goodbye any hope of a seasonal Christmas! There have been plenty of mild options in the latter stages of the ensembles so I suppose it's no surprise one came out as the op run this evening.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
04 December 2017 23:13:18

Control looks better than the Op for an Easterly 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


squish
04 December 2017 23:21:34
The whole easterly scenario in the latter stages of the GFS 12z and on a few ensemble members is interesting, as its the first time its appeared. Its no surprise the 18z is different, as at this range there are so many different possible solutions. If the scenario keeps popping up and gets closer to the +240 range, then it might be one to watch for the Christmas period... otherwise forget it for now. My sense is the 18z GEFS is cranking up the Atlantic more in the latter stages...but still with a southerly je. So the next 10-15 days are going to be very interesting and possibly disruptive, but not necessarily all wintry. Wind and rain are the usual as we approach the equinox, but this year does look to have a colder flavour than usual in the mix...
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Gooner
04 December 2017 23:22:57

Control very close to an Easterly at 276 . 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
04 December 2017 23:24:11
I don't have the link but the ECM ensembles and clusters were posted on Netweather and look pretty promising! At Day 12 66% show blocking to the NW.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
tallyho_83
04 December 2017 23:43:47

x2 Snow events? 12th and 15th?



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


fairweather
05 December 2017 00:19:40

GFS 18z ensembles for London hold very cold for weekend but then trend milder with op run being about the coldest on offer. Lot of uncertainty still after Sunday.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Karl Guille
05 December 2017 06:27:07
The milder longer term trend is evident on the GFS 00z again but so much happening in the interim that its not worth contemplating at this stage.
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017120500/gfs-0-312.png?0 

Strange also how upper temps contrast between GFS and GEM, the latter of which barely has -6 across much of the UK during the upcoming northerly whereas GFS has -8 to -10!
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2017120500/gem-1-96.png?00 
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017120500/gfs-1-96.png?0 


St. Sampson
Guernsey
Retron
05 December 2017 06:32:38
Fascinating output this morning, with the track of Sunday's low making a massive difference in the weather across the UK.

If ECM wins out, we'll see a 60-hour cold spell followed by widespread wind and rain.

GFS, on the other hand, would give a mixture of snow and rain in the south, followed by a repeat a couple of days later.

The MetO run sits squarely in the middle.

Leysdown, north Kent
Whether Idle
05 December 2017 06:35:46

Fascinating output this morning, with the track of Sunday's low making a massive difference in the weather across the UK.

If ECM wins out, we'll see a 60-hour cold spell followed by widespread wind and rain.

GFS, on the other hand, would give a mixture of snow and rain in the south, followed by a repeat a couple of days later.

The MetO run sits squarely in the middle.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Indeed.  ECM 144 shows a milder  wet and windy picture: Place your bets!


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Retron
05 December 2017 06:49:33


Indeed.  ECM 144 shows a milder  wet and windy picture: Place your bets!


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Given that GFS has backtracked on Thursday's low being due east of us (it's now going to end up over Scandinavia, just as the other models had it), you can probably guess where my money's going.


For whatever reason, it really seems hard to get the jet aligned so as to propel lows to be east (or heaven forbid southeast) of us. More often than not, they "correct" further north.


 


 

Leysdown, north Kent
nsrobins
05 December 2017 06:50:53
Skipping through the output listening to England’s fightback in Adelaide.
Actually the track of Sunday’s slider is remarkably different between the big three, making a huge difference in the conditions any particular location can expect. Fascinating stuff.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Brian Gaze
05 December 2017 07:01:11

As they say in golf "never up, never in". Personally I think ECM 00z is an excellent run for much of the UK and I'd take my chances with it through the next 10 days rather than seeing precipitation scurrying off to the south.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Retron
05 December 2017 07:08:08


As they say in golf "never up, never in". Personally I think ECM 00z is an excellent run for much of the UK and I'd take my chances with it through the next 10 days rather than seeing precipitation scurrying off to the south.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


It's excellent if you're a fan of rain, that's for sure! As for anything white, forget it unless you're in Scotland, Wales or halfway up a mountain...


Here's the ECM's "total snowfall" chart. Note that this shows how much snow there would be if none of it melted.


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017120500/great-britain/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20171213-1800z.html


(As ever, there's more exciting stuff towards the end of the run. Trouble is, it's always a week or more away!)

Leysdown, north Kent
Steve Murr
05 December 2017 07:09:22


 


Given that GFS has backtracked on Thursday's low being due east of us (it's now going to end up over Scandinavia, just as the other models had it), you can probably guess where my money's going.


For whatever reason, it really seems hard to get the jet aligned so as to propel lows to be east (or heaven forbid southeast) of us. More often than not, they "correct" further north.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


JFF I will go against that & say based on history with lows that slide south East across the UK - the ECM will be far to progressive & the track will be a blend of UKMO & GFS...


UKMO tends to have the best track record here & its already backtracking west..

Chiltern Blizzard
05 December 2017 07:09:29
Day 9 on ECM looks very interesting... the wrong side of marginal perhaps. Also, it’s Day 9, not Day 3.
Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Gooner
05 December 2017 07:11:28


As they say in golf "never up, never in". Personally I think ECM 00z is an excellent run for much of the UK and I'd take my chances with it through the next 10 days rather than seeing precipitation scurrying off to the south.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Phew!


I thought it was just me, I like the ECM and would take that 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


doctormog
05 December 2017 07:18:51
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_240_1.png 

Before then the GFS has Friday’s 500-1000hPa thickness at 512dam here (was 514 on yesterday’s12z) and the ECM is now 518dam, for the same time point yesterday it was 524dam, interesting.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
nsrobins
05 December 2017 07:23:25
Graupal and snow showers are pretty much a given now for Friday I would think except maybe on north facing SW coasts. I’d be surprised if most places didn’t see at least a flurry at some point between Friday am and Sat pm - some places a lot more.
Sunday on the other hand is far from sorted 😉
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Rob K
05 December 2017 07:32:12
I must say I'm a bit puzzled by the negative remarks about the ECM run this morning. It seems a lot better than the last two or three and has definitely moved towards a less progressive picture. Still not *quite* good enough down here but if we end up with the much-vaunted "halfway house", given that GFS is still showing the attacking low on Sunday miss us to the south, we could well get lucky.

In the longer term ECM also looks better than GFS, which seems to have given up on the Scandi high idea for now.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
05 December 2017 07:34:34

The "slider" (or not) is starting to come into range of the high-res models. Here's the WRF-NMM and it looks pretty decent to me?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=120&mode=16&map=20


 


ICON has very different ideas. 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon-eu.php?ech=120&mode=2&map=510


 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Retron
05 December 2017 07:48:10
One thing to bear in mind with the models' snow fields, which always look more exciting than reality. The reason is they show any chance of snow - from 100% (which would be pure snow) to 1% (which would be the odd flake in the rain). Much of what you see on today's ECM, over England at least, is actually sleet rather than pure snow - similarly with GFS, there's a lot of sleet (or mixed rain and snow, to use the US term) as opposed to "proper" snow.

The WRF model as linked by Rob above shows this well. Switch it to precip type and look at all the rain!
Leysdown, north Kent

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