theweatheroutlook

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Karl Guille
05 December 2017 21:35:28
ECM Op was mild at the end of the run!
https://www.weerplaza.nl/gdata/eps/eps_pluim_tt_06260.png 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Sinky1970
05 December 2017 21:45:39

I don't post much on here but i have been sitting on the fence for a long time, as regards Sundays system, what i believe will happen here (Wolverhampton that is not here on the forum!) , which this has happened many a year is that it wil just start a bit sleety and just end up with good old cold rain, but Friday daytime and evening we (might) end up with a couple of cm's, on the ground, only if we're lucky.

doctormog
05 December 2017 21:53:35

The18z GFS is largely unchanged up to 84hr. So still mild, then wild then cold/wintry for many. Very consistent but still colder than some other output.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
05 December 2017 22:07:03

ECM Op was mild at the end of the run!
Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 

">https://www.weerplaza.nl/gdata/eps/eps_pluim_tt_06260.png


 


Are those the Holland ensembles, or London?


 


Meanwhile on the GFS, the track of the low seems virtually unchanged. No southward adjustment for us snow-starved southerners!


 


Actually I tell a lie, Brian has his own Chiltern snow hatching on this run 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Arcus
05 December 2017 22:16:51


 


Not sure if you are basing this on the chart you posted, but there could be a few -10's in there, as the shaded line represents the standard deviation of the full spread, rather than the full spread itself. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Yep, you're right - my bad.  But it is noticeable that no ECM Op run in recent times brings a -10c 850 into mainland GB (or even anywhere near it) whereas the GFS runs and ENS are almost unanimous on bring it down into not just Scotland but into England as well.

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
backtobasics
05 December 2017 22:18:07
real consistency between 18Z GFS and ECM at 168 hrs, almost identical ! like most id like to sunday's slider 100 miles south but no change from the 12Z..
LeedsLad123
05 December 2017 22:21:55


I’m more intrigued by the short term outlook but this has the potential to deliver a LOT of snow to northern areas. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_120_1.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_144_1.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_120_2.png


As Q pointed out earlier uppers do not necessarily have to be below -5C in a setup like this and I think it has the potential to be a very disruptive event. 


GFS is remarkably similar.. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_114_2.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_114_10.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_114_4.png


Definitely one to watch. Leeds/Bradford area could certainly do wel as it stands, but that risk could slip south. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


During frontal events, I've always used -4C as the dividing line between snow and rain. That's what I've noticed in snowfall events of the past anyway. They definitely don't have to be any lower.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Andy Woodcock
05 December 2017 22:22:32


">https://www.weerplaza.nl/gdata/eps/eps_pluim_tt_06260.png

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


Are those the Holland ensembles, or London?


 


Meanwhile on the GFS, the track of the low seems virtually unchanged. No southward adjustment for us snow-starved southerners!


 


Actually I tell a lie, Brian has his own Chiltern snow hatching on this run 




The predicted track is perfect, that will do nicely!


You southerners get the good summers, leave the snow for us lot up north.


Its ironic that the only snow I have seen in 2017 was last Saturday at Luton Airport!


Andy

Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
Joe Bloggs
05 December 2017 22:22:54

GFS is consistently bringing in very very cold air at a very reliable timeframe now.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_60_2.png


I’m hoping it has this airmass nailed as it’ll be snow just about anywhere that catches a shower, there’s not much room for marginality there.


Sunday also looks very snowy indeed for some northern parts. Can barely keep up with all this. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_108_1.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_108_10.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_114_4.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_114_10.png


 


Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
White Meadows
05 December 2017 22:25:01
One things for sure - the jet looks very buckled for the foreseeable 👍
David M Porter
05 December 2017 22:32:32


GFS is consistently bringing in very very cold air at a very reliable timeframe now.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_60_2.png


I’m hoping it has this airmass nailed as it’ll be snow just about anywhere that catches a shower, there’s not much room for marginality there.


Sunday also looks very snowy indeed for some northern parts. Can barely keep up with all this. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_108_1.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_108_10.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_114_4.png


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_114_10.png


 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Sounds as though I better have my shovel at the ready on Sunday, Joe.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gooner
05 December 2017 22:38:13

An Easterly isn’t out of the question on this run

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


fullybhoy
05 December 2017 22:38:28


 


Sounds as though I better have my shovel at the ready on Sunday, Joe.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Yes David, dare i say it is looking potentially quite snowy up our way over the next few days 😊

Aldo
Glasgow 165m/asl
 
pdiddy
05 December 2017 22:40:07

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=0&carte=1


 


I'm still looking at the East and hoping there's some retrogression of that bad boy over Russia!  Possible link up with the Azores high ridging to Greenland!

backtobasics
05 December 2017 22:45:51
is the the GFS setting up for an epic finish ? pressure rises over scandi ..
Rob K
05 December 2017 22:50:05

is the the GFS setting up for an epic finish ? pressure rises over scandi ..

Originally Posted by: backtobasics 


Not quite epic but maybe by about 450 hours it would be. Quite a block setting up. Definitely a theme. 


 


Edit: coincidentally 450 hours would be Christmas Eve 😉

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Global Warming
05 December 2017 22:50:25

Things of note on the GFS 18z


Cheshire streamer on Friday - basically 24 hours of non-stop snow showers. So significant accumulations likely


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2017120518/57-779UK.GIF?05-18


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2017120518/78-779UK.GIF?05-18


Snow map says 5cm of cover by 03z Saturday


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2017120518/81-780UK.GIF?05-18


Snow for the Pennines northwards on Sunday


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2017120518/114-779UK.GIF?05-18


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2017120518/120-779UK.GIF?05-18


Heavy rain sweeping in on Wednesday with snow for the northern hills, at least initially


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2017120518/180-779UK.GIF?05-18


Most northern parts away from the coasts have significant snow cover by first thing next Wednesday before milder weather comes in to many areas associated with the new storm


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2017120518/180-780UK.GIF?05-18


Moving well out of the reliable time frame we have snow for the south as a low pressure clears away into the continent and cold northerlies return


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2017120518/228-779UK.GIF?05-18


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2017120518/240-7UK.GIF?05-18


Plenty of interest in the coming 10 days. Snow for some - mostly in the north, with wet and windy conditions for many at times. Cold northerlies also on the cards at times. Detail will change a lot I am sure but whatever happens it should be fascinating weather watching. About time, it has not been a classic year for interesting weather so far in the UK.

backtobasics
05 December 2017 22:52:39


 


Not quite epic but maybe by about 450 hours it would be. Quite a block setting up. Definitely a theme. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


yep, a mere 450 hours !! 


have been a winter two lurker since 2001 and if its taught me one thing that is to enjoy the ride without getting to excited about the destination, so far this winter the ride has been great fun, some really interesting synoptics to ponder

nsrobins
05 December 2017 22:59:14
As an additional topic we’ve been discussing the cold front(s) feature sweeping down on Thursday. The possibility of directional shear driven features on this boundary needs watching.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
tallyho_83
05 December 2017 23:14:32

impressive SNOW AND COLD IF THIS PROVES RIGHT - But Midlands northwards only!


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Rob K
05 December 2017 23:26:41


 


 


yep, a mere 450 hours !! 


have been a winter two lurker since 2001 and if its taught me one thing that is to enjoy the ride without getting to excited about the destination, so far this winter the ride has been great fun, some really interesting synoptics to ponder


Originally Posted by: backtobasics 


 


BTW I know the CFS is cannon fodder but I notice it is also showing a Scandinavian high for Christmas...

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Solar Cycles
05 December 2017 23:27:24


impressive SNOW AND COLD IF THIS PROVES RIGHT - But Midlands northwards only!



Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

I’m not so sure that’s how it will pan out tally, I expect further southerly corrections between now and Sunday. I really think most will see falling if not lying snow at some point over the next 7 days.

Gandalf The White
05 December 2017 23:51:28


 


 


Are those the Holland ensembles, or London


Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


Holland, somewhere.


London:



An extraordinarily tight clustering after day 10 with quite sharp overnight minima, quite a few runs with ice days and a handful of scarcely believable ones.


In the short term confirmation that the op has the slider too far north and east v the mean: a solid cluster keeps it around 3C on Sunday.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Solar Cycles
06 December 2017 00:19:42


 


Holland, somewhere.


London:



An extraordinarily tight clustering after day 10 with quite sharp overnight minima, quite a few runs with ice days and a handful of scarcely believable ones.


In the short term confirmation that the op has the slider too far north and east v the mean: a solid cluster keeps it around 3C on Sunday.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

You can see why the MetO have extended the cold in their MRF, not a done deal by any means but cold is the form horse for now.

Gooner
06 December 2017 05:52:52

Looks like the slider has edged a tad further towards the SW ?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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