Shame, a few days ago this weekend was looking like the bread and butter but we are starting to slip back into our jam tomorrow mode now 

Jam tomorrow is the main form of sustenance for us cold weather junkies I am afraid. We get jam today perhaps once a decade if we are lucky and are good boys and girls and have enough patience and stamina to wait for the delivery we all crave - snow, lying snow and the enjoyment of it.

Naturally, what we all crave at this time of year, is snow for Christmas and the charts do provide some seasonal prospects, we just have to keep our fingers crossed for the big day.

Ecm 240 looks ok. Plenty of interest still from the models tonight although I think on balance we've tilted slightly further towards umbrellas and away from sledges in the mid to longer term. It's a marginal shift though and things could revert.

I’m more intrigued by the short term outlook but this has the potential to deliver a LOT of snow to northern areas. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_120_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_120_2.png

As Q pointed out earlier uppers do not necessarily have to be below -5C in a setup like this and I think it has the potential to be a very disruptive event. 

GFS is remarkably similar.. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_114_2.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_114_10.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_114_4.png

Definitely one to watch. Leeds/Bradford area could certainly do wel as it stands, but that risk could slip south. 

Might be cold enough by day 10 LOL. 

It's marginal from day 5 so it wouldn't take much of a downward shift in temps. But at the moment its lots of cold rain for anywhere south of Manchester. 

Looks like we are in a repeating pattern.  There will be little hope of snow for people of the south  in populous areas until this pattern changes.

Those in the northern portion of the UK should take their chances while they have them.  Somewhere like Sheffield  could do well this week, and the Peaks and northern Pennines. It will be good to see some snow pictures and attendant text from at least part of the community. 

going by some people it is 3-5 c below average is not enough for some!

Yep, I'm one of them 

........... but hopefully come back in the summer 

Scandi High Winter, Azores high with UK extension for summer.  Its not much to ask.

I think that's my four corners on the MOD thread bingo. 

Anyway, 12z ECM 850 ENS IMBY:

EDIT: Interesting that no ECM member goes for -10c 850s as per GFS even now.

GFS seems to be pretty well out on its own with -10C 850s.

ARPEGE only reaches -6C in London. WRF-NMM only goes to -8C. Hard to tell from UKMO as it is between frames but probably -8C or so.

BTW the JMA isn't pretty this evening.

Not sure if you are basing this on the chart you posted, but there could be a few -10's in there, as the shaded line represents the standard deviation of the full spread, rather than the full spread itself. 

That’s what I was thinking.

Rub it in why don't you. 

GEM, on the other hand,  produces a gem of a run. 

Just looking at the ECM wind run, and there would appear to be a very sharp wind direction shift of almost 90 Deg with the passage of that cold from to tomorrow night into Thursday morning, more especially for the us here in Ireland and the northern half of the UK, which could suggest a possible squall like feature during the cold front passage?