Thanks Quantum...well soon find out!

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Thanks Quantum.

Whenever I have watched the live streams on your YouTube channel which you occasionally do with Gavin P., one of the things which I have always enjoyed about that has been the discussion about this type of situation at a more general UK level in terms of whether a specific location is likely to get rain or snow depending on all the factors which come together for that.

For that reason (amongst others), I therefore, hope that you are correct on this occasion with this prediction. At the moment, the wind has picked up a little bit here and has been usually been the case recently, the temperature is refusing to drop any further once again (of course, the cloud cover alone will also be preventing the temperature from being to drop). However, the dew points are still well below freezing and aren't changing very much so on that front, things are actually looking quite good just now.

 

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The intensity of precipitation seems to be weakening rapidly even before it reaches Glasgow 😣

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Cheeky little trough looks like it’s got snared in a weak zone of uplift around the Humber Estuary this evening enhancing showers through Hull and into the Lincolnshire/Humberside area. The area could catch a few cms overnight.

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It can go and naff-off Neil . I wanted clear skies tonight and its peeing on my Tmin.

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And raises another concern because whilst it is great that the dew points are below freezing just now, they are dropping at a time when the temperature is itself, refusing to drop for the usual reasons (i.e. too much cloud and too much wind). That in turn means that the difference between the actual temperature and the dew point is growing, which therefore means that the air is actually becoming drier because the relative humidity is dropping.

That in turn, makes me a bit concerned that the air might just be too dry to support much in the way of precipitation if anything at all, and I am wondering is this is now starting to show its hand with that weather front already weakening before it even reaches Glasgow.

EDIT:

I have just looked at Netweather's rain radar map which shows that there is some bits and pieces of very light precipitation very close to here, well ahead of the main weather front itself. I haven't noticed that yet but Netweather also has a snow radar app for Android (and I will assume that this will be available for iOS as well) and according to that, this light precipitation is falling as snow.

 

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I am in the Trossachs at 240m asl. Light snow which is settling now but very marginal. Temp started at 1.5c but now 0.7c. Not much left of the band though.

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Two things of note for today:
1) The band of light snow ahead of the main trough (E/C Midlands) was not modelled as far as so know so illustrates the mantra of expect the unexpected
2) Some evidence that the trough may sharpen a bit later across E Anglia with Norfolk maybe getting a few cm early hours

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New weather warning out for Thursday evening in to Friday - snow showers following the front!

Rain, sleet and hill snow is expected to clear northwestern Scotland late on Thursday evening, and these clearer conditions will spread to all parts by early Friday morning. Ice is expected to form as skies clear. Heavy snow showers will follow, and these will be most frequent across Northern Ireland and western Scotland, where 2-5 cm may accumulate above 100 m with some snow to low levels too. Ice will be the main hazard across Northern England and Wales.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-02-08

 

I must say this has been a terrific Winter so far for falling snow here - not lying snow so much, but there's still time for that!

 

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Am seeing very light sprinkling of dry snow here.

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0c clear

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Snowing. 0·4c.

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The snow area extended south into Kent:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-02-06&lat=51.1259&lon=1.3179

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

A band of sleet and snow will turn more showery overnight but with some heavier bursts possible, especially over Norfolk and Suffolk. 1-4 cm of snow is possible in places there, though rain and sleet may occur along coasts. Elsewhere some places seeing a cm or so of snow but ice may be the more widespread hazard.

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Met Office warning out for snow on Sat/Sun for NI/Scotland/NW England/N Wales.

Local BBC radio round here bigging-up the prospects of snow on Sunday. 

 

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The tail end of the LP where colder air looks like being dragged down into moisture overnight on Saturday also brings potential for rain to snow for southern Scotland, borders and NE England. One to watch, but altitude probably required.
Doesn't look like affecting Portsmouth though.

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Potentially even low lying Manchester could see some snow on Sunday night. Model output seems to suggest 1c most of the night so if showers arrive then there could be a covering. In fact looks slightly less marginal than previous attempts this winter.

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As we wait for the Easterly that will never come. Plenty of snow over the next 48 hrs even a bit for the South. Scotland gets buried. 

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=prty&HH=42&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

 

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I don't see any signs of Scotland being buried on that chart. In fact it sums up perfectly why this winter is up there amongst my most hated and detested of all time. Most of the populated areas don't appear to be getting any snow at all 

Will be a joke if even a NW'ly flow can't bring snow here. No problem with precipitation getting through from that direction when it's rain as we found out on the truly vile 1st of February and of course countless times in recent summers.

 

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Have a look at the snow accumulation charts most of Scotland gets quite a lot of snow. Sadly Aberdeen doesn't get any

 

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I still wouldn't say that this was a done deal though because when I looked at one of Netweather's charts from the end of yesterday, that had all of the snow in the south of Scotland being confined to further south than here, with Edinburgh getting nothing at all. It wouldn't surprise me if that is how it all ended up.

 

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Just looking at the last few Gfs Run’s Surely there’s the potential for some snow through Tuesday now for central England, it’s showing up on on the latest Icon now as well.

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