That's more like it.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12617.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.png

As Moomin mentioned certainly losing a bit of the heat for the weekend

But then - what happens afterwards.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn21617.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn24017.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn26417.png

Some warmer weather returns but not to the levels we are currently seeing, long way off though

Cooler but still settled from ECM for the South. Not much rain for the North either.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html Maybe Matt Hugo is right after all. Game Over perhaps.

ecm sort of something in between at same time scale with energy very intresting set of runs all in all.

still plenty of warmer runs on the table still a good summer run!

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

jap adds weight to ukmo

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=144&mode=1

ECM is as usual more amplified than GFS, and with troughing getting into Scandi that makes a big difference for the north. Further south, the weak nature of the northerly flow means that the warmth is merely diluted to near-average from next Tuesday through to Thursday (the limit of the run), which is more or less what GFS serves up for the same time period in terms of temperatures.

Next Saturday still looks like it could manage to be the hottest day of the year if ECM verifies. Friday is in with a good shout too, and GFS concurs on that one before being a little lower with the upper air temps on Saturday.

Curiously, UKMO lifts out the troublesome Scandi trough on day 6, which would help us out immensely. Seems to have little company tonight though.

I see JMA is close to UKMO on day 6 and becomes a stunning run (Thanks for your input Tim ).

I reckon ECM is probably a bit too amplified as usual, but on the other hand we need a bit of luck to follow UKMO/JMA/BOM. I guess that leaves GFS as looking the most sensible in the longer range - though hopefully after being too progressive for Friday-Sunday.

No James thanks to you guys over the years as a guest like yourself and Darren and S Murr and Yd over the years thanks very much indeed im only self taught. ive always been a model freak.

Good evening. Here is the report on the midday outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for Monday July 8th 2013.

All models support a fine week to come with long sunny spells as High pressure remains positioned close to or over the NW of the British Isles. It will be very warm with loads of sunshine for all. However, there will be a few hiccups along the way with a cooler day possible on Wednesday, mostly felt in the East where a cool breeze and patchy cloud cover will hold temperatures back several degrees from recent days. Also following a warm up again towards the end of the week Saturday may see a few showers or storms as a decaying front gets caught up in the hot and humid air over the UK. By Sunday though this risk will of diminished again as drier and fresher air infiltrates behind it.

GFS then shows the weather slowly becoming cooler and cloudier for a time as a Westerly flow develops with a little rain possible up here before High pressure builds back for a time with attendant fine and warm weather for most. Towards the far reaches of the run though the weather is gradually shown to become a little cooler and more changeable for all as fronts gradually make there way down from the NW.

The GFS Ensembles still look quite respectable with uppers remaining a little above the long term mean overall. They do fall off from their current levels later in the week and from the weekend on the chance of a little rain is possible across any part of the UK though amounts and persistence remains very small.

The Jet Stream is blowing way up over Iceland at the moment where it remains for some time to come. There is then a slow trend emerging for it to slip slowly South towards Northern Britain a week from now. UKMO tonight shows High pressure dominant over the UK positioned close to the West with a strong ridge across Britain maintaining fine and warm weather with plenty of sunshine especially in the South with only the far North at risk of cloudier Westerly breezes and a little rain early next week.

GEM tonight looks like much of Southern Britain will stay very warm well into next week as High pressure maintains a strong ridge across the South with the North seeing Westerly breezes with some dry and bright weather too with the chance of the occasional outbreak of rain with time.

NAVGEM tonight shows a set pattern shared by most models of High pressure out to the SW of Britain and a ridge across the South of the UK. The weather would stay fine and warm or very warm especially in the South with only the North seeing rather more cloud at times, cooler air and the risk of a little rain on occasion. 

ECM finally shows a slow decline in conditions next week as a slacker flow develops over the UK from the NW under falling pressure. This would mean showers would become steadily more likely day by day and could become heavy and thundery in places by the end of the run with temperatures on the slide.

In Summary the weather looks like staying fine and dry for the reliable timeframe with some very warm or hot conditions continuing for most of the time out until the start of next week. There is then a trend developing that sees some changes possible from the NW in the shape of light rain or even thundery showers ala ECM later next week and the more this trend is shown on subsequent runs the chances of it verifying are increasing day by day.

Thanks Martin. 

Energy disrupting the northern flank of the high pressure in the 16-18th July timeframe has been modelled for a few days now. 

It will be interesting to see if this verifies and also if high pressure quickly rebuilds from the SW thereafter.

It would be very good modelling if this brief atlantic incursion from the west or north west occurs. 

CFS still wanting a cold winter

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/cfs-3-1-2014.png?18

All 3 months below average today.

Greenland highs becoming a very common theme. 

Meanwhile in the freezer ^^^^

Sod the winter CFS forecast....The GFS 18z is significantly warmer than the 12z.

Probably an outlier of sorts, but there is no end in sight to the summery weather on the 18z.

Long may it continue!

Aah but have you checked Navgem

If only

I am having to resort to my long standing tactic of sleeping in a wet t shirt with the fan on

Roll on winter

I've been watching the CFS for a while and it seems remarkably consistant in its desire to bring a cold winter. So its not just today that its showing cold anomolies 

Also the atlantic tripole is still about (though admitadely no where near as juicy as it was in May).

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.7.8.2013.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1384.gif

Hot Sunday and each run had increase the temps from low 20's yesterday runs.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1624.gif

30C on Monday so my normal Sun/Mon off is very perfect timing.

Staying warm to hot this week, weekend and next week with no rain at all likely so would be interesting to see how dry July be like.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

The ensembles back away from the cooling dip this weekend to now above average so it seem to continuing warm to hot side.  it the same thing last year ensembles was showing unsettled and cool and always keep the settled side being pushed away on each run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1622.gif

Just to note that reaching 30C here on Monday is homegrown heat available for UK lattitude because on that day the air source is very light westerly. If we have a southerly that so far we never got it yet this summer would give us high 30's temps or possible set new hottest record temps.  I think this summer is dominated with AZH always sitting over us or to the SW that limited those extreme high temps but more dryer and prolonged settled that way so I am happy to take that.

Good morning. Here is my take on today's midnight outputs of the big 5 weather computer models for today Tuesday July 9th 2013.

All models show the rest of the week and the weekend with High pressure totally in control of the weather over the UK positioned somewhere close to NW Britain. All areas will stay dry with just a few exceptions to note . Firstly in the way of cloud sliding down Eastern Britain through tomorrow and clearing on Thursday and again on Saturday as a weak cold front slipping South could generate the odd shower towards the east and SE late in the day. It will stay very warm for all with the highest temperatures generally found towards the SW and South where the most sunshine is likely.

GFS then shows pressure gently falling through next week as the High pressure slips slowly SW allowing a slack NW flow to develop with the risk of a few thundery showers across some Northern and Eastern areas at times. The South and West do still look like staying dry and sunny under a ridge from the High with temperatures still comfortably on the warm side of average. Later in the run little change to the pattern looks likely with dry and bright weather in the South and West with cooler and cloudier conditions with the odd outbreak of rain affecting the North and East at times.

The GFS Ensembles show slow changes over the two week period with the trend for a slow cool off in conditions to more average levels of temperature maintained today. Nevertheless, there is little evidence of any major breakdown especially for the South and West where little rain is likely. The risk does increase through Week 2 for Northern and Eastern parts but no great amounts are likely even here. Winds look like maintaining a NW bias with the warmest weather as a consequence for southern Britain with the sunniest conditions shown for the SW.

The Jet Stream shows the flow well North of the UK near Iceland for the next 72-96 hours before it is shown to slip slowly South to be blowing West to East across Scotland next week.

UKMO today shows high pressure having moved quite a way West and SW of the UK with a NW flow blowing down over many parts away from the far South. There would be more cloud than of late but many parts would still be dry with some very warm sunshine clinging on in the far South. Equally, cloud will become thicker in the north as troughs dig down from the NW with occasional rain looking more possible with time.

GEM today too does drop pressure over the UK early next week as a upper air trough develops over the UK enhancing the risk of showers with time. There would still be a lot of dry weather about with High pressure not a million miles away to the West. Temperatures would fall back closer to average for many but warm sunshine would still be a feature of the weather between any showers and many could well stay dry, especially in the SW.

NAVGEM shows High pressure never far away from Southern Britain with only the far North seeing much in the way of a cloudier Westerly flow. Elsewhere the weather remains set fair with some warm sunny spells in light winds.

ECM finally looks pretty good this morning with any deterioration in conditions early next weak very temporary and restricted to slightly cooler conditions with an odd heavy shower early in the week an this only to Northern and Eastern parts. The South and West will see the best conditions throughout with dry and warm weather extending to all other areas too later as Summer high pressure builds back over the UK later next week.

In Summary the weather looks like staying set fair over the next few weeks. The best weather looks likely to be over more South-Western parts where the fine weather looks unlikely to be interrupted with warm sunshine daily. Elsewhere there are some indications that the skies will be more cloudy at times next week as weak disturbances run down from the NW bringing a lot of cloud and the threat of just a little rain. However, I would suggest that even here the balance will remain in favour of fine and dry weather. It does look as though once NW winds set up this coming weekend the very highest temperatures may leak away South away from the UK but some very warm and potentially humid days are still likely, especially in the South.