Good morning. Here is the report taken off the 12 midnight data supplied by GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday July 24th 2013.
All models support a warm and humid spell for the rest of the week and weekend. The intense heat of early in the week has largely gone now but there may be a short build of heat across the SE at the end of the week though the extent of this North and West remains uncertain. Though a lot of dry and bright weather will be found for many over this period there will be a scattering of sometimes heavy and thundery outbreaks of rain or showers, notably later tonight and tomorrow and again on Saturday as a thundery Low drifts North or NNE across more SE areas. The parent Low feeding these warm and moist winds will remain anchored out to the SW of the UK before it begins to move further NE towards the North by the start of next week.
GFS then turns winds towards the SW and then West with cooler air feeding across all parts with sunshine and showers, some of which could still be heavy especially in the North. The back end of the run this morning supports a continuation of the rather changeable conditions before a drier and warmer interlude develops in the South towards the end of the run.
The GFS Ensembles today look very ordinary after the final embers of the warm spell disappear from the 29th. From thereon it looks like a more changeable regime with rain at times and average temperatures is the most likely option on offer.
The Jet Stream shows the flow continuing to flow NE from Biscay up across SE Britain to Norway over the hot plume to the East up to the weekend. Thereafter it pushes the plume away from Northern Europe as it feeds more directly East across the Atlantic, the UK and Europe.
UKMO today shows a warm SW flow over the UK early next week maintaining the theme of the end of this week with a sunshine and scattered showers type scenario with some very warm conditions still flirting with the SE at the end of the run. The showers would fall mostly over the North and West with the odd thundery one sparked off in the SE at times.
GEM looks rather disappointing today. Low pressure quickly establishes next week with some windy and wet weather shown as cooler Atlantic winds reach all areas. By the end of the run in 10 days time little has changed with relatively cooler and more showery weather maintained as slack Low pressure sits over the UK.
NAVGEM today shows Low pressure out to the NW through next week with a slack SW flow blowing over much of the UK. There would be a fair amount of warm sunshine to be found with just occasional showers most of which will be in the North and West. It will still feel pleasantly warm in the sunshine and it could be very warm in the SE at times as high temperatures remain tantalisingly close at times to SE England.
ECM today continues the them of rather warm and showery weather throughout next week with an array of weak troughs and Low pressures delivering these features on occasion. In between this will be some warm sunny spells and it will probably still feel quite humid. By the end of the run pressure is trying to rise from the South and in the still and humid air it would likely begin to feel very warm again.
In Summary today the pattern looks like going one of two ways and the jury is out on which course it will take. The first option is a continuation of the rather warm and humid conditions with occasional showers, some heavy and more concentrated towards the North and West. The second option on offer today is a swing towards more generally cooler and cloudier conditions with Westerly breezes and bands of rain and showers crossing East at times in average temperatures. Which is right is unclear at this stage as there is some support for either option. Whichever way the weather goes it looks unlikely that there will be anything remotely as unpleasant and cool as anything we experienced in the unsettled spells of last summer.
Originally Posted by: GIBBY