Hi all,

Here's the Sunday Morning CFS Six month look-ahead;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Takes us from October to April and as ever some very interesting charts of offer.

Enjoy.

PS I'm expecting Terry's September forecast today, so look out for that later.

Excellent video again Gav

January is a jaw dropper

A tad chilly then

Thanks Nick.

It's a much better model since the upgrade, I think.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/cfsnh-2-1-2014.png?06

January could well be a month to look forward to

Just a LRF of course and can and will change ,  who knows it might get colder

JFF

Thanks Gav.

It could be an interesting winter ahead.

So the forecast, for today at least, is for a new ice age for Europe.  We'll see...

True and look what happened in early 2006 they had a very severe start to the year but we did not. But overall things looking good  at the moment if you want cold this Winter in our country 

Thanks Gavin

Thanks Gavin, that looks rather interesting!

Tis but a forecast but very interesting if anywhere near accurate.

Was that before the CFSV2, when we had to look at the useless CFSV1?

A real 180 for Jan 2014 if you take another look today. I'm OK with following trends but..........

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php?ech=3&mode=4&carte=0&run=10

October looks interesting on there.

Today's January prediction has reverted to a fridge.freezer like you showed on Sunday

But if you look at the two below seperated by 24 hours you can see why I get a bit sceptical about these forecasts

I think this far out they are just showing "noise" generated by the chaotic behaviour in the models which builds up gradually the further out you take them

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php?ech=3&mode=4&carte=0&run=10

I see your comment on 'noise' and raise you a 'complete balderdash'.
These charts are MONTHLY anomolies and therefore, in theory, should be much less prone to output variation and especially nearer the time.
If a whole month anomoly can change so much from day to day, confidence ranges from extremely low to non-existent.

But if used correctly and looking at the runs in terms of percentages then you can see a if a pattern is a trendsetter or not, if you use them daily then you may as well throw a dice or use the GLOSEA model.

Are you sure? Why should monthly anomalies be any less prone to output variation than individual days on two different runs? If the synoptic situation generated for 0000hrs on 1 January is different on, say, the 06z run from that on the 00z run, then it's no surprise that the monthly anomaly produced as the next 31 days play out is also different.

This isn't a comment on the usefulness or accuracy of these long-range charts. I'm just not sure that manic monthly anomalies are necessarily a reason to ditch them.