Fascinating

We could do with the cold weather missing us and hitting Scandi and Russia in the first wave... otherwise it will be mild air from europe, not bitter cold we will be seeing.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111518/gfsnh-0-84.png?18

More of a Northerly on the 18z

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013111518/gfsnh-1-84.png?18

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn901.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9017.png

18Z gives us a colder Tuesday

I'm probably wrong but I can't remember ever seeing -36 uppers (over Greenland) as there are at T+174.

LOL at pub run...It's delivering tonight...must've been on the Carlsberg for a Friday night!

Indeed v blocked and cold for the time of the year.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.png

Yes expect to see a few Scandi highs in the models tomorrow and a gradually cooling continent. Interesting times!!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn33617.png

cold throughout

Quite stark differences for developments on Wednesday for Western Britain, with a different pattern forecast on each run.  The most recent 18z goes for a slack lp, with little precip drifting south.  I know the BBC are reporting this is also one to watch and being tricky to pin down.  On some runs its a pronounced LP bringing heavy snow on its northern edge, on others its a band of scattered light showers.

Odd to see such different developments on each run.  One for Western britain to keep an eye on.

Going to Manchester xmas markets on Wed also - would be very seasonal with some Mulled wine and Hog Roast!

At least it will be seasonally nippy.  That will do fo now :)

I am going to derby weds so I am keen as well to see any developments in that area- I wonder how far I will be from snake pass¬!!

on the face of it the initial ridging into greenland has been downgraded, however it hasnt really effected the overall net pattern of a slack continental flow by day 8....

S

Good upgrade on the 18Z by the greenland height rule which I summarise as follows.

Look at the 500hpa height, and in particular the 552 isopleth. 

If the 552 isopleth doesn't get to greenland it will be a toppler.

If it gets to about central greenland then an extended cold spell is almost definite.

And stuff in between is marginal.

This rule, can return a crude single number representing how good the run is. You will notice over the last 24 hours the isopleth has tracked from central greenland, south until not getting to the coast on the 12Z. The 18Z is a slight improvement with it managing to get into greenland. 

But the difference of 500 miles or so will be huge, things could still dramatically change despite my pessimism. 

Might catch a few flurries on the S Coast Steve 

Plenty of different options on the table as per the ensembles. Some mild, some average and some pretty chilly ones.

IMO, I always think it is worth waiting another 3-4 weeks before getting the   charts....

NOV = TOO EARLY for PROPER/LONGER LASTING cold/snow.

I'm only 11 miles from Snake Pass summit (512m) asl, been to the top many a time in the snow 

I reckon therell be a dusting ontop of the peaks by the end of  the week.  Any other snowfall will melt into slush.

Though like i said earlier - looking like a few ice days probable in northern britain from leeds northwards.  So potential for anything that falls to stay around.

Taking the current model output and combining it with the general signal from CFS lately, the suggestion is that the PV will be under attack during the next 40-60 days, becoming increasingly unstable until an eventual disintigration sometime late in December or early in January.

The pace at which this unfolds has been increased by a large amount over the past fortnight, coinciding with the trend in GFS and ECM away from a strong PV dominating proceedings.

It seems that something, somewhere, has developed in favour of a blocked polar pattern developing by January. It might be the wave-breaking into the lower stratosphere, but I've not been following that closely enough to be sure (work demands...).

Given the reverse in trend for the 18z with more northern 552 isopleth and the fact the high res 12 NASA, has actually upgraded, rather than downgraded. I think we should expect to see upgrades tommorow on all models.

 I mean if the NASA GEOSS is to be believed, matty land is due 20+cm of snow on tuesday night. If the low res models fall into line, expect excitment on forum tommorow! 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

ECM 144 is loaded with long term potential this morning.