Updated warning from the Met Office for Monday and Tuesday

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1387756800&regionName=uk

Issued at: 1228 on Sat 21 Dec 2013

Valid from: 0900 on Mon 23 Dec 2013

Valid to: 2359 on Tue 24 Dec 2013

Warning:

A rapidly deepening area of low pressure will bring very strong winds, reaching southwestern areas during the first half of Monday, lasting well into Christmas Eve across many parts, easing from the south later. Further heavy rainfall will accompany the initial increase in winds. 

There is the likelihood of widespread gales, with gusts to around 70 mph for much of Scotland, Northern Ireland, west Wales, northwest England, as well as southern coasts of England. Gusts of 80-90 mph are possible, the greatest likelihood of these values being towards the northwest. Although many central and eastern areas of England should see lesser wind gusts, the combination of these winds with heavy rain and heavy holiday traffic may well increase impacts. 

The public should be aware of the potential for significant disruption to travel due to the very strong winds, and also the risk of some flooding due to the heavy rain. Please keep in touch with the forecasts and warnings, which are expected to be updated again on Sunday. 



Chief Forecaster's assessment:

An area of low pressure will deepen rapidly as it passes just to the west and northwest of the UK later on Monday, ending up as an exceptionally deep feature. This will bring stormy conditions to parts of the UK on Monday and Tuesday with the strongest winds likely along coastlines exposed to the south and west, but later perhaps more generally across parts of the north. 

There remains some uncertainty around the precise depth and track of this system, and hence the areas most likely to be affected by the strongest winds and heavy rain. 

Oh dear, I would stand 5 miles down the road in order to catch it.

In all seriousness, best of luck with that ........................nightmare

Interesting read - I remember this storm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braer_Storm_of_January_1993

If this works, here's a 20s clip of our attempt to walk to Rubh Hunish this morning. We were forced to turn back. You need sound to appreciate it fully....
 
https://www.facebook.com/isleofskyeweather
 
The wind at home was gusting around 45 - 50mph, the path is a little more exposed, so probably being buffeted by 55mph gusts. At least we didn't get wet 

 

Originally Posted by: mbradshaw 

Rather testing conditions on the Cuillins I would imagine 

well  it look  bad  the   moment  all  eyes should  be on  monday    /tuesday  its  look dire to say  the  least  !!

Yes, agreed, while things are bad today with a windy and rainy opening to the winter, things will be a lot worse on 23/24th.  "Christmas Power Cuts" will be the headlines and Im sure the CEGB (or has it been privatised?) will be getting it in the neck by Christmas Day from tens of thousands of angry customers with uncooked turkeys and ruined Christmasses.  One would hope the persons responsible for maintaining the electricity supply in terms of the national grid  were making serious contingency plans and that there are hundreds of engineers on standby for the call...

I will be fully charging my Ipad and phone prior to the evening of the 23rd...

I have no doubt that the electicity companies (not CEGB, that ceased to be post-privatisation) will have people on stand-by but they have to be able to get to remote areas and if there are trees down and roads blocked then that all slows down the process.  You can't use helicopters in high winds so there isn't a 'Plan B' either.

The 06z still shows a broad band with gusts of 60-70mph moving through on Monday:

Noon: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122106/54-289UK.GIF?21-6

3pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122106/57-289UK.GIF?21-6

6pm, over East Anglia, the SE and across the the Isle of Wight: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122106/60-289UK.GIF?21-6

The sustained wind speeds put this at Force 7 or Gale Force 8, which is quite a blow for inland areas of the south.

Common sense measures by way of contingency planning:

The electricity companies (God help us) will need  to pay overtime for extra staff.  Each van should have basic winching equipment and a chainsaw and a can of petrol for said saw.

Good shout, although the mobile signal is one of the first things to go down around here when the wind gets up.

Wonder if the SSE food van will do turkey??  It provided burgers and chips during the last power cut.

However, with the timing of the next storm and the fact it will affect England as well, i expect the resources available to be deployed up here might be less, thus a longer outage for some if it happens

 LLTNP 105m asl 

Indeed, I think it's now time to get nervous and check to see if house insurance policy are up to date. That's going to hurt their coffers but good news for the building trade.

Eagerly awaiting the next runs to see if they soften the blow but I have a feeling it's not going to be good news.

Did you fix your roof?

Joking aside Ian, I am "concerned" at this stage by the forecast for 23/24 December.

For me a SW is far better than a Southerly as my house is much more sheltered that way.  Gusts of around 80-85mph are forecast on a direct southerly and I am conscious of this. Hmmm...

The 12z GFS has the low at 929mb i think, which i believe is the lowest siince 1884

LOL

Go on put it up, you can always buy another

Wenger has never beaten Mourinho as a manager so I am not holding my breath.

Good luck , during this stormy spell

The 12z GFS has upped the maximum wind gusts further for the SE quarter on Monday, which is not good news.  Not only that but the gusts of 60-75mph keep going from 3pm on Monday until 3am on Tuesday, a full 12 hours.

Isle of Wight and Channel Islands have gusts of 75-80mph for six hours overnight Monday into Tuesday.

Gusts:

At 9am the system is starting to affect the far west: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/45-289UK.GIF?21-12

by Noon, well into western areas: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/48-289UK.GIF?21-12

At Midnight little movement, still covering an area from The Wash to IoW: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/60-289UK.GIF?21-12

Average wind speed for the SE for the six hours from 6pm to Midnight on Xmas Eve are predicted to be 35-40mph

6pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/54-602UK.GIF?21-12

9pm: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/57-602UK.GIF?21-12

Midnight: http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013122112/60-602UK.GIF?21-12

That's Force 7 sustained for 6 hours

I reckon there's a chance it will be called off, given the forecast winds and heavy driving rain.

The 12z NAE has the centre of the low much closer to Ireland and further south than the other models at 958mb at 12z on Monday. This track would be very nasty indeed.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/12/21/basis12/ukuk/ismh/13122312_2_2112.gif

Dont think my outside xmas lights will be working after that bombard but thanks for update GTW

Here is the WRF-NMM model

Wind gusts of 120 - 130kph even inland across the SE corner according to this as at 0z Tuesday. That is up to 80mph. Could be very nasty here indeed as well as further north near the centre of the low.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2013122112/nmm-11-60-1.png?21-18