This was originally posted in the climate forum, I was asked to post it here also if more people wanted to guess.
OK the deadline will have to be soon, so I'm going to say the 15th. The nenana ice classic is real competition run in alaska, where people predict the day and time the ice will become mobile on the nenana river. There is a live (ish) webcam that shows the pole and sensor in the ice.
http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com/
See bottom of the page.
So all you have to do is name a date and time that you think the ice will become mobile. There are many factors which determine this including ice thickness and temperature in particular. The earliest it ever went out was April 23rd, and the latest May 20th which actually happened last year and preceeded the suprisingly high 2013 arctic sea ice minimun.
You can see archived data for nenana ice classic here:
http://sled.alaska.edu/akfaq/akfaqq1019
The average date of it going out is approximately may 5th.
OK then guess away...
P.S Please specifiy the timezone when you give a time, otherwise it could lead to confusion.
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.