Not sure I like the look of the ECM 12z tonight though- hope it's an outlier.

We're going to rub shoulders with some possibly awful stuff this next couple of days - A nasty low getting close to the east - that is the last thing we want.

Don't know about the best...  But the Met office extended outlook has however consitantly been good for the coming few weeks. Maybe the fine outlook is why its so quite??

Just quoting the weather forecast I saw tonight on Look East. It wasn't good at all.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY TUESDAY JULY 8TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A slack pressure gradient remains across the UK with unstable air aloft.

HEADLINE  A continued mix of sunshine and showers.

GFS The GFS operational today remains mostly governed by slack Low pressure areas in the vicinity of or over the UK with the now familiar mix of sunshine and showers a maintained theme. There will be mostly light winds with some warm sunshine and plenty of dry weather too while the end of the run shows an unpalatable Low pressure over the North Sea with cool and fresh NW winds and rain at times. The Ensembles today show a gentle build of pressure across the South next week with showers more likely towards the North for a time before all areas fall back under the risk later as slack Low pressure extends over all of the UK once more.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a light Westerly flow across the UK with a mix of sunshine and scattered showers for all. Most of the showers though look more likely towards Northern areas though all areas will see a fair amount of dry and fine weather too.

GEM The GEM operational today shows the basic pattern of a ridge to the SW maintaining it's attempts to ridge across the UK with some success tempered by interventions of slack and showery troughs in the flow over the UK. A mix of sunny spells and scattered showers looks most likely as a result with spells of dry and fine weather too in light winds.

NAVGEM NAVGEM is broadly similar but does show more of a coherent rise of pressure next week with less UK troughing with fewer showers and more sunshine as a result. Temperatures near average for the most part will rise above later in the South.

ECM The ECM operational this morning shows a larger extent of the Low pressure from the East over the coming days with the spread of some rain and thundery showers in the East and South as a result. Thereafter it reverts to the form of other models indicating slack Westerly winds with weak troughs in the flow giving rise to scattered showers and plenty of dry and warmish weather with the majority of showers shifting towards more Northern parts.

MY THOUGHTS  There is not much to say about this morning's output which I haven't already mentioned in recent days. The continued pressure pattern of an Azores High and slack Low pressure over Europe and the North Atlantic keeps the UK on the periphery of all these features and hence the reason that the mix of sunny spells and scattered possibly thundery daytime showers looks set to continue for some considerable while yet. All models show day to day variation on the extent and distribution of showers with the gradual trend for the emphasis of showers to be focused towards more Northern parts of the UK later next week onward with the chance that the South could become mostly dry and quite warm.

Ditto.

Looks warm/muggy and changeable with heavy/thundery downpours a threat on most days for at least the next 5 to 7 days.

Hi all,

Here's today's video update:

Warm And Showery Mid-Month? 

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/ 

Torrential downpours today.

Our strange summer continues...

Yes it's been an odd Summer - warm (averaging around 19-20C on most days) so not overly warm but most days there has been sun which has made it feel warmer, to be honest I've worn a tshirt/shorts on most days since the 2nd week of June - quite unusual for here!......did not manage to do that until the first week of July last Summer. If this warmth keeps up into August dare I say this Summer will be better than last Summer in this neck of the woods.

JMA gives 12 uppers into the SE corner by Thursday so some places will be very warm depending on cloud cover.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014070812/J48-7.GIF?08-12

It won't be dry for us all either. Especially for NE areas.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014070812/J48-594.GIF?08-12

Then JMA gives us a cool end to it's run, notice the cold -12 uppers over Greenland, this is the time of year when they begin to reappear after a brief "warm up" in May and June.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014070812/J192-7.GIF?08-12

I'd be happy with more of the same.  We've had a lovely summer to date, with most days getting above 20c apart from a couple of grey days last week and although we've seen passing rain clouds, very little rain has fallen, though we got a heavy shower late this afternoon and we've had our share of short lived thunder storms over the past few weeks. 

OK, so we haven't yet had scorching 28c + days like last summer, but neither have we had days on end of grey nothingness, like the previous four or five summers.  I appreciate that not everyone has been quite so lucky with the weather, but I'm sure we could all do a lot worse.  I'd rather have changeable, than dull.

Dullness for the next three days at this end, so it seems, before we have a brief taste of summer-like conditions on Saturday but with a risk of thundery showers before a weak cold front move in from the west to brush it all away on Sunday.
   And how we get the most perfect easterly type synoptics: http://www.sailingweatheronline.com/old/bracknell_all_highres.htm. That would cause a lot of excitement/friction if it is late January but rather useless at this time of the year.

I can see how and why some of us does get frustrated with our weather sometimes when it comes to hoping for decent sunshine and extended spell of warmness. Still, we have had worse in the past, perhaps it's all saving itself for the school summer holidays (most of our best summers are the slow burner ones - eg, 1990 and 2003).

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY WEDNESDAY JULY 9TH 2014.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Pressure is Low to the East and High to the SW with a light Northerly flow across the UK strengthening in the East as a warm front edges West.

MODELS HEADLINE  Dry and bright at times but all areas sees a risk of showers at times through the period.

GFS The GFS operational today shows winds mostly blowing from a Westerly quadrant through the period with a series of troughs crossing the UK at times in the flow. Pressure stays High to the SW and a ridge from this continues to be thrown NE towards Southern Britain in particular at times reducing the risk of showers here than elsewhere in temperatures close to or a little above average in the South. The Ensemble data endorses the overall theme described above with some spread of higher pressure elsewhere at times too in the middle of the period.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a very slack pressure gradient across the UK by next Tuesday with winds light West to SW. It will be quite warm and a little humid and while low pressure is a long way away to the NW weak upper troughs slipping slowly East in the flow maintains a risk from scattered heavy showers, most likely towards the North.

GEM The GEM operational today shows Westerly winds for much of next week with scattered rain at times before a build of pressure backs winds off towards the SE for a time bringing very warm humid air North over the UK followed quickly by a thundery breakdown and in turn a return to sunny spells and well scattered showers at the end of the run.

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows pressure building steadily from the SW next week, first across the South and this extends to all areas later with fine, warm and sunny weather likely soon after midweek for all in light winds.

ECM The ECM operational this morning shows complex synoptic patterns still next week with the early feed of Westerly winds and scattered showers backing Southerly for a time with increasingly warm and humid air being pushed North across many areas before a thundery Low moves North across the UK with heavy rain in places freshening the air up behind it .

MY THOUGHTS  My thoughts this morning remain focused on fairly slack pressure gradients being maintained across the UK. There never looks like being any major pressure system 'high' or 'low' centreing itself over the UK through the period of this morning's output with our airspace being mostly on the periphery of both of these features. As a result there will continue to be a lot of dry and fine weather about and it will feel and be warm and humid at times. Such conditions will spawn some thundery showers and occasional cloudier zones with lighter rain at times almost anywhere but gradually becoming more likely over the North while there is a slightly growing trend that Southern Britain could benefit from slightly higher pressure later with fine and potentially very warm conditions at times being fed North from the South.