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rickm
30 January 2015 22:26:33

Really tough one this month but I'm going for 2.5 and hope the high pressure settles North or East.

Gusty
30 January 2015 22:28:32

3.4c please 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
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Weathermac
30 January 2015 23:29:02
2.9c cet for me please.
Dougie
31 January 2015 07:05:46

3.5°c please.


Ha'way the lads
speckledjim
31 January 2015 09:20:50
4.0 please
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Saint Snow
31 January 2015 10:19:39

3.9c


Again, I'm going for the mid-point between two conflicting thoughts: A repeating pattern of cooler blasts from the NW/N, with perhaps a touch of blocking to the NE/E teasing us. Or a quick breakdown toward a more mobile Atlantic and milder temps.


Then again, recent output suggests the first quarter/third could well be blocked to our south, with the southern half of Britain (most/all of the CET area) under higher pressure. Milder days, frosty nights?


Decisions, decisions.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Devonian
31 January 2015 10:53:24

I'm thinking the same way as several others. Looks chilly but really cold would be a big reversal, otoh, the models might well be over egging the return of mildness.


So, 3.8C please.

Solar Cycles
31 January 2015 10:54:14

5.2c for me please as this cold spell will suppress those daytime maxima's.

Sevendust
31 January 2015 11:29:56

3.5'c Ta

bruced
31 January 2015 11:45:26

First time of doing this...even though I've been on TWO for a few years now.  I decided I would finally do something daring in my 40th year and enter the CET competition!!


Can I have a 2.8 please?  There could be a run of frosty nights in February, even if daytime maxima are not that cold.


David


Northallerton


David
Snowshoe
31 January 2015 12:05:26

A risky 2.7C for me.

nouska
31 January 2015 12:34:34


3.9c


Again, I'm going for the mid-point between two conflicting thoughts: A repeating pattern of cooler blasts from the NW/N, with perhaps a touch of blocking to the NE/E teasing us. Or a quick breakdown toward a more mobile Atlantic and milder temps.


Then again, recent output suggests the first quarter/third could well be blocked to our south, with the southern half of Britain (most/all of the CET area) under higher pressure. Milder days, frosty nights?


Decisions, decisions.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Decisions, indeed - the analogues have some legendary months appearing in them.


http://i.imgur.com/3Pahgk4.gif


I could see that split in the ensembles from last night but the colder options are fewer this morning - why are those enigmas always showing at month end?


It's a fence sitting 4C from me.


Edit - please see revised figure on next page.

Global Warming
31 January 2015 12:48:40

A very cold first week of February looks likely now. A cold start to February is quite common if we look back into the archives. Here are the coldest first seven days of Feb since 1900 in the CET series


1917  -3.23C
1954  -2.83C
1963  -2.06C
1912  -1.46C
1956  -1.01C
1991  -1.01C
1947  -0.86C
1907  -0.56C
2012  -0.53C
1996  -0.40C
2009  0.14C
2015  0.21C Est.
1900  0.30C
1942  0.54C


Worth noting that the coldest six day period in the 1971-2000 CET series is 13 to 18 Feb at 3.46C. So although the solar energy starts to increase significantly during February the air temperatures are at their lowest in mid Feb. So plenty of time for further cold weather in the coming month.


Taylor1740
31 January 2015 13:07:31

3.5c please


NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Dingle Rob
31 January 2015 14:16:17

Mmmm 3.9C for me please.

marting
31 January 2015 15:53:12
I'll have 4.3c please
Martin
Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
Duncan McAlister
31 January 2015 16:07:45
3.2 for me please.
Grandad
31 January 2015 16:21:55


Going low at 1.0C

Think anticyclonic with frosts, after very cold first week..

Grandad

springsunshine
31 January 2015 17:47:37

4.9c Please

Stormchaser
31 January 2015 20:00:05

A blend of the 12z runs keeps the cold theme going long enough that the CET could still be below 1*C nearly halfway through the month... remember February is only 28 days long.


 


Then it gets tricky. Playing it safe with average conditions brings the CET up to a little way above 3*C, but there are plenty of signs out there for increased blocking in the second half of February which could bring considerable temperature anomalies either side of average.


Given signs of a highly distorted polar vortex allowing for at least some persistent mid-latitude blocking in the vicinity of the UK, from which more options are colder than average than are warmer than average, I'm going to apply a negative adjustment to the 'safe bet' and go with


2.4*C


 


As with so many things in my life, I have managed to turn this competition into a scientific experiment 


 


Cheers as always GW 


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2023's Homeland Extremes:
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Keep Calm and Forecast On
Hungry Tiger
31 January 2015 20:18:49


A blend of the 12z runs keeps the cold theme going long enough that the CET could still be below 1*C nearly halfway through the month... remember February is only 28 days long.


 


Then it gets tricky. Playing it safe with average conditions brings the CET up to a little way above 3*C, but there are plenty of signs out there for increased blocking in the second half of February which could bring considerable temperature anomalies either side of average.


Given signs of a highly distorted polar vortex allowing for at least some persistent mid-latitude blocking in the vicinity of the UK, from which more options are colder than average than are warmer than average, I'm going to apply a negative adjustment to the 'safe bet' and go with


2.4*C


 


As with so many things in my life, I have managed to turn this competition into a scientific experiment 


 


Cheers as always GW 


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


Well done James - and well said. I'm not going to be cheeky and alter my CET forecast  guess. I think many of us now really do feel that we're in for a cold February - how cold exactly - well we are all going to find out very soon. :-)


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Easterly Beasterly
31 January 2015 21:08:38

2.8c please

Whether Idle
31 January 2015 21:15:30

2.9 please


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Frank H
31 January 2015 21:29:49

3.4c please


Wrightington, Wigan
markwells
31 January 2015 21:53:48
hi please can I go for 3.3C many thanks

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