A blend of the 12z runs keeps the cold theme going long enough that the CET could still be below 1*C nearly halfway through the month... remember February is only 28 days long.
Then it gets tricky. Playing it safe with average conditions brings the CET up to a little way above 3*C, but there are plenty of signs out there for increased blocking in the second half of February which could bring considerable temperature anomalies either side of average.
Given signs of a highly distorted polar vortex allowing for at least some persistent mid-latitude blocking in the vicinity of the UK, from which more options are colder than average than are warmer than average, I'm going to apply a negative adjustment to the 'safe bet' and go with
2.4*C
As with so many things in my life, I have managed to turn this competition into a scientific experiment
Cheers as always GW
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser