As yesterday time has defeated me  again today I'm afraid so my regular readers can view my report on my website only today at the below link.

http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Place your bets...! 

GFS quite simply has a stronger jet stream which drives deeper low pressure development followed by a secondary low running NE to bring some rain and blustery conditions to the UK.

UKMO's weaker jet is unable to fuel such developments, with the secondary low simply being absorbed into the main Atlantic trough while a ridge builds toward the UK from the SW on day 6.

Clearly there's a difference in model physics going on here which determines how strong they reckon the jet will be in response to tropical maritime air clashing with Arctic maritime air across the North Atlantic.

GEM sits on the GFS side of the equations, but what about ECM? This morning it was pretty much on the UKMO side, will it remain so this evening?

Puzzling times. The trouble with GFS and GEM is that they just don't quit once they've started throwing those lows NE, transferring the whole complex to our NE by around day 10, which leaves us at risk of seeing the next Atlantic trough becoming slow moving either over or to the east of us.

No surprise that a number of recent GFS runs have been total s***efests. Even knowing how unreliable the model is beyond a week's range, the 06z and 12z efforts today have conjured a few curse words 

I'm hoping the output finds its way back toward the mid-Atlantic trough scenarios that were cropping up again and again in the op runs until not long ago... about the turn of the month in fact, as typical as that is.

There's sticking to your guns and then there's...

...producing almost identical output to the previous op run!

Once again ECM does not allow the jet to engage with the secondary low SW of the UK, leaving it to be absorbed by the main Atlantic trough instead.

This then allows a ridge of high pressure to gain a good foothold close to the east of the UK, where it puts up a fight against the Atlantic trough to keep frontal incursions few and far between while temperatures do very well indeed, potentially hitting the mid-20's at times:

It's not far from what GFS was originally toying with before becoming obsessed with driving the Atlantic trough NE.

It would be an interesting pattern to experience in the near future, as sea temperatures around Spain are generally up to a degree or so above the LTA, adding extra heat and moisture to the equation. Let there be Spanish Plumes! 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY MAY 4TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will move NE over the UK today followed by a deepening Low pressure moving North over the UK tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled  at first with rain or showers. Perhaps becoming drier and warmer, at least for a time later.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream currently blowing over the South and to the South of the UK will continue for a few more days before it eases North to blow across the North of the UK in a NE'ly direction. There are then signs of it wanting to return South again late in the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows complex Low pressure over and around the UK easing away North after midweek as a ridge moves across the UK from the SW. weaker Low pressure and troughs then brush Sw and then NW Britain towards the weekend while pressure remains HIgh to the SE. Some more unsettled weather looks possible to return from off the Atlantic late in the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run follows the operational quite closely through Week 1 but by Week 2 the risk of more unsettled weather continuing for much of the UK is greater with rain at times for all in average temperatures. Then rather than build High pressure from the SE this run indicates pressure building to the North sending any rain risk down to more Southern areas while the North sees the driest conditions.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a theme of High pressure out over the Atlantic the most likely setup in two weeks time but how close and how influential is much harder to decipher.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows things settling down over the South and East Britain over the end of week and weekend period as the Low pressure complexes of this week move away to the NE setting up a more traditional NW to SE split in the weather.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning mirror the raw data reasonably well today with the only difference looking like being how significant the push of Low pressure from the SW late in the week will be.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows a changeable week to come with rain at times as the current Low pressure zone moving up from the South is replaced by another weaker version towards the weekend. Pressure then is shown to build strongly for a time early next week with some fine and warm weather to be enjoyed before the model brings back the influence of Atlantic Low pressure again to end the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows changeable conditions through the week with Low pressure never far enough away to prevent rain or showers at times for most. The pattern looks fairly similar next week though the South and East look like fairing rather better by the start of the new week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM also shows a fly in the ointment Low at the weekend delaying any better weather for the South before the NW/SE pattern emerges easly next week with some decent weather in the South and East for a time while rain at times continues to the NW spreading back to all areas by Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  shows a trend towards rather more unsettled Atlantic based weather moving down over the UK slowly from the NW with rain at times eventually likely for all after a better period especially in the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models continue to be hesitant on the extent and duration of High pressure in Week 2 of the period.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.3 pts followed by UKM at 96.6 pts and GFS at 95.6. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 88.0 over UKMO's 87.0 pts with GFS at 84.5. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 57.4 pts over GFS's 55.6 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 39.8 pts over GFS at 39.1.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The pattern for this week is largely agreed upon by all models with any differences between them not emerging until Friday and beyond. Low pressure moving North across and around the UK will ensure plenty of rain and showers at times for all in a blustery wind until a ridge moving North over Friday kills off the rain and showers to leave a decent day. Then the complications arise with the onset of Low pressure and troughs edging up from the SW over Friday. Some models such as ECM make enough of this to bring a further wet spell to parts of the South on Saturday while others just send a light band of rain North up the West side of the UK while other areas stay largely dry if rather cloudy. Then the models come together again for a time in promoting a spell of better weather in association with High pressure to the SE and bringing warm SW winds across the UK with rain only likely to affect the NW for a time before it looks like spilling SE again to many other areas in the 10-14 day period. Only the GFS Control Run throws a slightly different message from this as it shows pressure building to the North of the UK by the end of the period with some rain still in the South as winds switch Easterly. However, this run doesn't have much cross model support so I would suggest while never being high Summer in the next two weeks there will be some windows of reasonably warm and dry weather especially over the South and East and equally some more changeable conditions with rain at times, this especially but not exclusively towards the North and West. At least temperatures no longer look to be a major issue across the UK in the next few weeks.

Next update from 08:00 Tuesday May 5th 2015

With the lowest temperature over the past 48hrs only being 10.4C, and with the coldest forecasted over the coming 5 days to be 9C, I'm wondering...

Are there any cold nights being modeled over the coming 2 weeks? Or are we begining to finally see the end to single digit over night lows until autumn?  

My tomato and pepper plants can't wait.

However I've encountered another risk 60mph winds lol... The met have issued a warning.

I have been doing as you have, risking it but keeping an eye out on the forecast, however I lots of smaller heat loving chilli plants that will benefit from the extra space in the cold frames once the toms are out permantly 🍅

GFS 12z is changeable but with some warmer, settled spells for a few days at a time and a risk of thunder possible for the south in fi.

But not to bad really.

I know what you mean. Its time for some warmer weather.

Lets hope so.

Certainly wouldn't take much for that low shown in the ECMWF outer reaches tonight to draw up a thundery low or two.  Quite a wet run for my small area overall but looking milder/warmer for most us at last.

Just as it was finally looking like we'd escape the possible Friday/Saturday LP system, what with GFS going off the idea, we now find ourselves with UKMO and ECM in favour of it. Typical!

Yet we don't see the following Atlantic troughs powering NE as GFS was showing yesterday - a reflection of how much less keen ECM tends to be on that sort of thing. Instead we live dangerously between troughs to our W/NW and ridges across Europe - conditions are often on the warm side, but that brings plentiful moisture which threatens some large rainfall totals wherever disturbances develop (be they organised systems or thunderstorms... or both).

Once we get to about a week from now, the models appear very confused as to what the way ahead will be. It's almost as if two competing signals are at play, just look at this messed up ECM day 9 chart for example:

You've got the main trough sat just north of Scandinavia having transferred there via the UK, which is simple enough, but then there seems to be a battle between a broad scale ridge and a number of shallow troughs over Europe. 

I suspect (but I don't know of any charts to use to confirm or contradict this) that this may be down to a developing ridge in the upper levels of the atmosphere extending from around the Azores to NW Europe, hindering low pressure development but not quite killing off the Atlantic jet. 

Of course this is only one model, and cross-model support is a bit flimsy at the moment;

GFS is totally missing the transfer of the major trough to our NE on it's 12z op run, the probable upper level ridge instead manifesting as a Scandi High instead which, having established by day 8, proves very resilient through the rest of the run.

GEM has the trough transfer ECM-style but is then more vigorous with the lows in the Atlantic, conditions more toward unsettled than on the ECM run, though there's not a lot in it I suppose.

With UKMO fairly similar to ECM days 5-6, the 'warm unstable' outcome seems the favourite at the moment, with a mess of shallow low pressure systems interacting with ridges across Europe for days 6-10 and perhaps beyond.

The Atlantic jet does need to be in a weak state for that to take place though, otherwise a westerly regime will tend to dominate with the warmth displaced toward Central Europe. Best watch out for that.

Good points there Alan regarding our changeable weather. It sure keeps us on our toes!
It was the contrasting ridge/trough signal for Europe that caught my eye - the models trying to go two ways at once 

This morning they seem to have leaned more toward a stronger Atlantic influence with the ridge controlling Europe. Before that, there's the chance of a notable Spanish Plume early next week. The question then becomes how quickly will the jet stream step up a gear and flatten the pattern?

Despite the apparent agreement between ECM and GFS, with such a big jump in the Atlantic mobility on this morning's ECM run compared to last night's, confidence levels remain low.

ECM has a Spanish plume next week 15c uppers for a time. If it comes off 27c + on the cards. Not looking to bad in the south after this week

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY MAY 5TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A complex zone of Low pressure will oscillate over and around the Northern half of the UK today, tonight and tomorrow with a strong WSW airflow blowing across the Southern and Central parts of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled  at first with rain or showers. Becoming drier and warmer in the South and East next week.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream currently blowing NE well to the South of the UK over France and Spain will gradually ease North towards the UK over the coming days. It will then blow strongly across the UK at times for the rest of the period with a lot of Low pressure to the NW of it..

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=jetstream&model=gfs

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows complex Low pressure over and around the UK easing away North after midweek but soon replaced by another towards the start of the weekend maintaining changeable weather with rain at times with strong winds in places. Then later in the weekend High pressure builds across the UK then relaxes to the SE setting up a day or two of fine weather for all before a classic NW/SE split in the weather develops from thereon with the NW windy and unsettled with rain at times while the SE sees the best of the weather in the shape of some dry, bright and warm conditions and only very occasional outbreaks of rain as more active fronts in the NW move SE as weakening features at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run follows the operational quite closely through Week 1 but by Week 2 the similarities diverge steadily with more sustained High pressure for a time giving better weather for all before a replacement of this by shallow Low pressure across the UK brings more showery conditions to all areas later in Week 2 with average temperatures overall but warm in any prolonged sunshine mid period.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters for day 14 today show a biased theme of a High pressure ridge likely to lie across the UK from the SW but with the positioning of it unclear ranging from a position over Scotland to the English Channel with some members showing more influence of Low pressure and rain at times.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows things settling down over the South and East Britain over the end of the weekend as High pressure builds to the SE. Until then the current Low pressure then a new Low moving NEon Saturday maintains sometimes windy and unsettled cinditions going with rain at times

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning mirror the raw data reasonably well today with the only difference looking like being how significant the push of Low pressure from the SW late in the week will be.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning takes the influence of Low pressure away from Southern and Eastern Britain from a point late in the weekend as we lose the significance of the deep Low at present and a new one towards Friday and Saturday in preference of fine and more settled conditions affecting the South and East with a brisk but mild SW flow with rain at times across the North and West as we move through next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows Low pressure continuing to be influential between now and Sunday with rain or showers in strong winds at times mixed with some short drier periods especially Thursday and for some Friday too. Then pressure builds from the South to give a warm Southerly feed veering SW next week and eventually re-introducing more changeable conditions with rain at times especially to the North and West

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM shows changeable conditions over the entire run with the unsettled theme currently experienced by all lasting through to Sunday as Low pressure continues to dominate. Then pressure builds strongly across the South with very warm and humid air looking likely for the South and East early next week before a trough crossing East brings the risk of thundery rain and a return to more changeable conditions at least to the North and West thereafter.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  shows Low pressure likely to lie out to the NW of the UK with a weak Westerly flow across the UK with changeable conditions with some rain at times but with some drier and brighter spells too especially in the South and East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains mixed outcomes on the introduction and duration of the NW/SE split in the weather anticipated next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.3 pts followed by UKM at 96.6 pts and GFS at 95.6. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 88.0 over UKMO's 86.9 pts with GFS at 84.4. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 57.2 pts over GFS's 55.4 pts. Then at Day 10 GFS gains superiority at 39.3 pts over ECM at 39.1.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The main problems for the models at the moment seems to be the extent and duration that High pressure building from the South over the weekend has over the UK next week. It now seems much clearer in stating that a new Low is likely to affect many parts of the UK for a time at the weekend before such a rise of pressure takes place. The clarity in conditions next week then become much less clear with the balance showing at least Southern and Eastern parts of England and Wales seeing a lot of dry, bright and reasonably warm weather developing while conditions in the North and West remain more changeable with some rain at times. There is some suggestion then that these more unsettled conditions gradually extend South and East to other parts too at times later next week but conditions never look like gaining too much momrntum as High pressure looks likely to hold firm to the South and SW of the UK enabling pressure to build back once any troughing in the South passes through with the return of fine weather here. On a blanket scale once the current unsettled weather fades conditions look unlikey to be newsworthy with typical conditions overall for this time in Spring and with temperatures near or sometimes above average in the South and East at times some very useable weather is likely for outdoor pursuits with frost unlikely to hamper farmers and growers through the period either.

Next update from 08:00 Wednesday May 6th 2015

A plume taking shape on this morning's ECM 00Z.

Problem is any warmth early next week is looking increasingly likely to be scuppered away East by the increasing domination of Low pressure to the NW as the past few 10 day Mean Charts from ECM have increasingly trended towards of late.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

Very True

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Briefly warm next week?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Overall we're in an unsettled pattern though...

Some decent weather on offer in the medium term (days 4 to 7) for the many millions of inhabitants of the far south of England.  The forecast appears to get progressively more unsettled as you head N and W.  Typical May weather in some respects.  Less windy conditions will be welcome though!

The period Sunday-Tuesday is looking increasingly warm, perhaps even hot if ECM lands close to the mark.

Trouble is, having all that hot air clashing with cold air flooding into the Atlantic via Canada and Greenland gives the jet what it needs to fire up strongly for the following few days. Both ECM and GFS use that to develop a deep trough that then pushes east to hang out across the UK.

If that sort of thing does happen then May '15 will end up being a pretty rubbish one overall, regardless of any improvements thereafter. Thankfully there would be no reason to expect that to persist into the summer - in fact, as far as I can tell from my records, the Appealing April/Mediocre May combination was last seen in 2003.

Still, It'll be a shame to see such a potent plume shoved aside so rapidly... the only way that will be avoided is if the areas of low pressure fail to combine into one mighty system, the separate circulations spreading out the potential across a wider area and preventing such a big jump in jet stream intensity. Then, perhaps, the plume could linger for an extra day or so.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY MAY 6TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A complex area of Low pressure will move slowly away to the North and NE of the UK tonight and tomorrow with the strong Westerly flow gradually decreasing with time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled  at first with rain or showers. Becoming drier and warmer in the South and East for a time early next week.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream currently blowing NE well to the South of the UK over France and Spain continues to be shown to edge North towards and over the UK in the coming days blowing in a NE direction. It later shows signs of becoming lighter and more disorintated and diffuse in location.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational this morning shows a gradual shift away from Low pressure dominance across the UK once we enter the weekend with pressure rising to the SE of the UK. After several more days of occasional rain or showers and blustery winds the weather looks like taking on a much more traditional NW/SE split as SW winds bathe the UK with rain restricted to the NW of the UK for much of next week and some fine and warm conditions likely to the South and East. Things are shown to become more unsettled again through the second week as Low pressure to the NW regains some control with rain at times in cooler air.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run follows the operational quite closely today throughout the period with some quite cool and unsettled conditions shown to develop across the UK later in Week 2.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters for day 14 today show almost universal support for High pressure to lie out to the West or SW of the UK with varying degrees of proximity to us with various options in conditions ranging from rain at times to dry and fine weather all in temperatures likely to be close to average.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows things warming up from the weekend as High pressure to the SE becomes much more influential with some warm sunny spells across England and Wales with any unsettled conditions confined increasingly towards the far NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts sing from the same hymn sheet as the raw data this morning pulling complex Low pressure away to the North and NE at the end of the weekend as High pressure builds from the SE.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows that once the current and early weekend Low pressure areas and their attendant unsettled weather move away later in the weekend the pattern becomes much more set as High pressure remains to the SE of the UK for the rest of the run with England and Wales seeing a lot of fine, dry and pleasantly warm weather while the North and West remain at risk of Atlantic troughs bringing occasional bouts of wind and rain at times here.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows Low pressure gradually receding away towards the North and West next week with a lot of dry and bright weather for England and Wales between well spaced bands of rain which will occur with much more frequency in the North and West in stronger SW pr west winds.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM shows changeable conditions interrupted early next week in Southern and Eastern Britain as a short spell of warm and more settled weather develops here due to a ridge of High pressure to the SE. however, it is shown not to last as Low pressure and achange of axis in the Jet stream pulls cooler Low pressure down across the UK later next week with wind and rain for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows the change in orientation of the Jet stream later next week responsible for dragging more unsettled and cooler weather back to many areas late in the run with winds from a West or NW point.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains mixed outcomes on the introduction and duration of the NW/SE split in the weather anticipated next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.2 pts followed by UKM at 96.6 pts and GFS at 95.9. At 5 days ECM  leads UKMO with 87.9 over UKMO's 86.7 pts with GFS at 84.2. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 57.2 pts over GFS's 54.7 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM gains superiority at 38.8 pts over GFS at 37.6.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The pivotal point on the weather outcomes from the models next week remains hinged on how much and how long the influence of High pressure developing to the SE of the UK has across the UK. Much of the output holds it just too far to the SE for my liking unable to sustain and spread it's influence much further than England and Wales through the early days of next week when it will no doubt become warm and quite humid in the South and East for a time. Scotland and Northern Ireland look unlikely to benefit much from this rise of pressure from the SE with a SW flow continuing to deliver changeable conditions here. Then for those looking for a sustained dry and warm period there is a worrying trend between the models that by the end of next week things could be turning unsettled and a good deal cooler again as the Jet Stream changes trajectory across the UK and drags cool and unsettled weather under Low pressure down across all areas later from the NW. This would mean the  North would probably still maintain the most unsettled conditions but all areas would become rather cool as the supply of warm air to the South is cut off. So no real sign of a sustained warm and settled period yet with a short period next week when things could feel summery enough across the South and SE for a time but at this early stage of the season the Jet stream fuelled by the Atlantic is not quite positioned far enough North or static enough to eliminate the prospect of Low pressure making inroads back across many areas of the UK at times.

P.S. This morning's ECM 10 Day Mean Chart just released further endorses the likelihood of cooler and more changeable conditions for all again by Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

Next update from 08:00 Thursday May 7th 2015

April was quite exceptional this year and could end up being the better of the Spring months if May turns out to be average.  The trouble is, April set the standard and raised expectations but if it had been average or poor, we'd probably accept the current weather conditions more readily and wouldn't be jumping to pattern matching conclusions.