Hi all

Here's the week ahead forecast video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/forecasts.html

Here's the Written version;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html

Rain in the north and west, cooler later...

Will have two updates tomorrow - The CFS Six Months Look-Ahead (JFF) + July's El Nino Update, so watch out for both of these.

Thanks as ever for your support and to Brian and the Mods for making it happen. 

Edit: Here's July CFS Six Month look-Ahead:  http://www.gavsweathervids.com/ 

Thank you  Gavin..Lowering temperatures after Wednesday...... Showers are Ok.

Cheers Gavin. Doesn't sound too bad really for most of this coming week.

But my goodness - its times like this I just wish this country was 700 miles further south.

What the UK is missing out on is just incredible, and annoying as well.

It's such an odd Summer... Could easily have been a really hot Summer... But could also have easily have been an awful Summer (infact for anybody in the North it has been!  )

Cheers as always. That'll do me.

Thanks Gav.  Good work.

The MetO have been saying consistently for the past week or so that they are seeing a signal for HP to build across the UK as we go into early August, turning the weather more settled generally across the country than it has been for a while. Maybe they are seeing signs that the northern blocking that has ruined things for the north so far will finally start to shift from that region around that time.

^^^^^

Thanks guys! 

Here's the CFS Six Month Look-Ahead (JFF) taking us out to January 2016!  

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

El Nino update on the way later this afternoon.

thanks gavin

a winter nightmare if that's right

A good summer followed by yet another mild winter? Dreamland! 

Thanks Gavin, glad CFS Dec / Jan is 6 months away, the sudden flip in September shows just how fickle these long range models can be- will be interesting to see if CANSIPS agrees when that updates on the 1st August I presume?  Probably as you mentioned all tied in with the El Nino forecasts.

Speaking of which looking forward to the El Nino forecast later, very different to 97/98 in the way the SOI is weakening and strengthening I think? Also I wonder what other factors are different now from 97/98 like solar activity?  

El Paraiso for you! 

A lot of interesting questions there Re. 97/98 Scandy... I imagine at least some of the Winter 15/16 updates, starting from September, will attempt to  answer some of these!

Re. CANSIPS. Does indeed update's 1st of month.

OK, here we go then - Here's July's El Nino update;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/enso.html

Everything on course for a very significant El Nino event.