15.8 for me please

TWO on 15.4c can't  be bad.

15.3C please

16.0 please.

Here is the latest estimate of the CET for the first half of August. After a cool start today it looks like the CET will hover around 16C for much of the first half. Not great but relatively much better than the last week or so. That said unless we get a heatwave in the second half of the month we could well be seeing August finish close to last year (i.e. around 15C).

Bear in mind that the mean CET for the first half of August is 16.6C (71-00) but for the second half is only 15.8C. So if we end the first half at 15.8C and it stays a bit below average for the rest of the month then it could easily drift down towards 15C. Of course a lot can change and it could just as easily go in the other direction.

Well, it looks like we've all pitched pretty much within a degree, most between 15.5 and 16.5c.  Good luck everyone!

15.8

Forgot. Damn.

Some results in from the usual's...

Met Office Hadley   from NW site     14.7c.     Anomaly   - 1.3c.   Provisional to 1st.

Metcheck                 14.64c.     Anomaly      -1.58c.

Netweather              15.5c.       Anomaly       0.71c. 

Clevedon Weather     15.2c.      Anomaly        1.1c.

Mount  Sorrel            14.9c.      Anomaly        1.3c.

My  Mean                  15.1c.      Anomaly        2.4c.

Here is the full list of predictions for August. After many people got their fingers burnt for two months in row most are this time going for a cooler than average month. Will this be correct or will the law of sod come into play?

Thank you GW for the list... Saved as usual. In Windows 10... 

I think I may be beyond the cut off but if not can I have 16.7 please.

Met Office Hadley         15.7c.       Anomaly    -0.4c.   Provisional to 2nd.

Metcheck                     16.37c.     Anomaly     0.14c.

Netweather                  16.78c.     Anomaly     0.59c.

Clevedon Weather         17.1c.      Anomaly     0.8c.

Mount  Sorrel                17.0c.      Anomaly     0.8c.

My Mean                       16.9c.      Anomaly     0.6c.

My Annual    11.0c.  Difference   5.3c.     

Met Office Hadley          16.5c.         Anomaly       0.3c.      Provisional to   3rd.

Metcheck                      16.64c.       Anomaly       0.41c.

Netweather                   17.52c.       Anomaly       1.33c.

Clevedon  Weather         17.1c.        Anomaly       1.2c.  

Mount  Sorrel                 17.2c.        Anomaly       1.0c.

My   Mean                      17.5c.        Anomaly       0.0c.

My Annual   11.1c.   Difference  5.4c.

The 00z GFS op was an interesting case scenario, with some hot weather lifting a loose CET estimate up to around 18.0*C by the midpoint of the month, only for relatively cool conditions to then bring it down into the mid-17's by late in the third week.

Average conditions thereafter would leave us with a high 16's final figure... but this is the warmest op run I've seen since the month began and the 06z was nowhere near as toasty.

Still, I find myself wondering if 15.7*C was at least a little pessimistic. It depends how well we can escape Atlantic westerlies once the potential warmer/hotter spell has wound down.

Met Office Hadley          16.3c.      Anomaly      0.2c.     Provisional  to  4t.

Metcheck                      16.52c.    Anomaly      0.29c.

Netweather                   16.9c.     Anomaly       0.6c.

Clevedon  Weather        16.9c.     Anomaly       0.6c.

Mount    Sorrel             17.0c.     Anomaly        0.8c.

My    Mean                   17.1c.     Anomaly0.4c.

My Annual      11.0c.  Difference  5.3c.

Reverse psychology seems to be one of the best ways to get the weather to behave itself Caz 

The CET estimate to yesterday from Hadley is remarkably high so far, with my own mean way down at 15.56*C.

This evening's 12z ECM op looks rather toasty for next week, especially Friday and Saturday (http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20150805/12/ecmt850.240.png) - but GFS isn't really going for it at the moment.

Let's face it, given my CET punt, the 20*C  850hPa isotherm is obvioiusly going to flood the UK toward the end of next week bringing 38*C to the SE 

I calculate the CET up to yesterday as being 15.93C compared to the provisional Hadley figure of 16.29C.

As of today the CET climbs to 16.04C.

A bit of a mixed bag over the next couple of weeks. Remaining slightly on the cool side in the next few days then turning warmer for 4-5 days before turning cooler again.

Currently I estimate the CET at the 15th Aug will be around 16.44C which is 0.12C below the 1971-2000 mean.