Note from Stormchaser: I've merged two threads here, one regarding Gavin's look at the coming five days, and one concerning his video on the latest BCC outlook for winter 15/16, to which this post by Sriram is a response:

Just checked out Gavin's BCC update for winter 

looks a nightmare - low pressure to north with Azores High to south

with westerlies mild and rain all the way

hope it's wrong !

Hi all,

Here's the five day forecast video:

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Here's the Written version:

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html

A disappointing end to a disappointing Summer?

Shall we merge this with my Five Day Forecast thread? 

On Topic. 

Very early day's yet Sriram. Try not to worry too much at this stage.

WIO

Roll on 2016/17

Thank you Gavin...

Was the "SN"  word mentioned.......

Agree with Gavin on this, with the El Nino likely to turn into a Pacific central based El Nino (Modoki) all bets are off as anything is possible. If the short range LRFs can't even get the Summer right this year I see no reason to believe the longer range ones for the coming winter. As well as the El Nino we have the sun activity complications too, which could be favourable for a colder than average winter if we continue to follow the sun cycle 12 as detailed in Gavin's excellent last Solar Sunday video.

All early days, but probably more encouraging signals then negative ones IMO than we have had for the last two Autumns.

I would say it matters not what the current signals suggest as the weather will do WTF it likes come nearer the time, thats my LRF out of the way for the coming winter. 

Best winter of my adult life. Snow before Xmas, partially melting on Boxing Day before refreezing into sheet ice (interesting driving conditions!), before melting completely. This followed by a widespread (almost countrywide) deep fall of snow early Jan which, in this area at least, stayed on the ground for about 3 weeks, with the snow-piles where car parks had been cleared staying until well into Feb.

The following December was an absolute cracker but, once the cold abated & the snow melted after Xmas, the rest of the winter was poor.

Still, I'd take in a heartbeat a similar pattern to those two winters alternately repeating year after year.

The El Nino of 2009 developed into a central Pacific event.

These seem to have some ties with a negative NAO in winter provided the SST anomalies are relatively weak (little more than +1*C). 

The current El Nino is a lot stronger than that, so even if it becomes a Modoki event, it may require other external forcing to escape the usual Atlantic trough/Euro Ridge response that appears to have ties with very strong El Nino events.

I have to say appears, as we only really have 1997/8 and 1982/83 to base any conclusions upon, and by scientific standards that's an absurdly small sample size! Arguably, the theory behind the modelling that has defined what the likes of CFSv2 and BCC are now showing for the upcoming winter could well be a load of codswallop. Hah... I haven't used that word in a very long time! 

The NOAA ENSO blog has an article about east and central Ninos and looks at how this one might develop.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/one-forecaster%E2%80%99s-view-extreme-el-ni%C3%B1o-eastern-pacific

Also some new research on ice loss and NH winter blocking.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JD022848/pdf