SEE latest post; I think this is now tropical like.

I was ready to finish the 2015 season review (I think some edits are needed; I want to possibly remove a storm and add one in) here: http://quantumoverlord.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/medicane-season-2015-to-be-updated.html

but then this appeared 'out of season' and I think this has a chance of becoming a tropical like storm.

This area of thunderstorms looks like it could develop into a tropical like system. Even though February is pretty late for Medicanes (as I say, I thought ending the season at the end of January is reasonable) it looks like its still possible. Wind sheer is low, and 500hpa temperatures are unusually cold (giving favorable development conditions), the SST is marginal at 15C which is pretty much the lower limit for medicane formation. 

Itl be interesting to see how this system develops. Thoughts?

No idea who First Malta are, but they have already dubbed it Cyclone Charlene ....

http://www.independent.com.mt/articles/2016-02-15/local-news/Cyclone-Charlene-expected-to-pass-close-to-Malta-on-Thursday-rain-expected-6736153309

http://blog.firstmalta.com/2016/02/15/it-is-now-confirmed-cyclone-charlene-will-not-be-hitting-malta-directly-next-thursday/

Yes, I think First Malta may be run by James Maddens Maltese cousin ......

Though the point is the local media have picked up on internet speculation about this storm

You say SSTs of 15C are marginal- does that mean there have been examples of genesis at 15C? In which case, given the favourable low sheer and low 500s, it would be fairly likely, although I have no idea what the other key factors are beside those you listed.

This really is a fascinating topic. Interested by classic Greek tales, I always wondered if the storms that wrecked fleets could be real in this enclosed sea but this adds a dimension to it. How many of these wrecks were not a result of classical conflict?

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/11/151103-greek-shipwreck-find-trading-route/

I don't think you need invoke Medicanes. Having been all but capsized in a small pleasure cruiser, probably much the same size as a Greek trireme,  which put to sea as this shelf cloud and associated thunderstorm approached, I can understand how fleets in ancient times were vulnerable.

Photo from Jun 2012

Don't think this one is to be, its moving too far south and overland; will probably dissapate now in a few hours. 

Yes I have named this, the 5th tropical like cyclone of the 2015/2016 season.

To me this looks tropical now, though I may declassify it posthumously.

Large eye structure indicates hybrid like characturistics (it would probably be subtropical if it was an atlantic system), however I think its organised enough to now merit the medistorm classification.

To obtain medicane status it needs sustained winds more than 39mph.

Again this is all my unofficial classification; I'm only doing this to hopefully provide some kind of record even if I have ended up mischaracturising some storms.

Note: Phase space diagrams are showing this as cold cored; however I think this is because they are not actually resolving this feature at all; rather the extratropical depression lying to the north east (with well defined fronts). Wierdly even the high res models are not resolving this feature well at all.

WRF usually handles these well but it just simply isn't picking it up.

The 1012mb low is not 'Eric', that's just a plain old depression. Rather I think its that 1014mb thing that lies to the south, although it even has the position of that wrong. I guess it goes to show how difficult these features are to predict. 

OK this is starting to look impressive; although there was some sheering on its NE side earlier; not its eyewall looks fairly healthy.

Does anyone know where we can get buoy observations? I have no way to estimate its windspeed.

I don't know if this one's any use Q?

http://passageweather.com/