On the Beeb forecast tonight Helen Willetts said this winter look like being the mildest in England and Wales on record.

I have to say I am surprised, up here in the north the winter has felt very mild yes but not exceptionally so and nothing like as mild as 1988/89 or 1974/75.

Yes December was exceptionally mild but both January and February had mean temperatures less than 1c above normal with some frosts and occasional snow.

Is Helen referring to the long standing CET or the more recent UK post 1914 average?

In Cumbria winter 2015/16 was certainly mild but record breaking no chance.

Anyone out there got the figures? Over to you Kevin.

Andy

CET I would have thought Andy 

According to the CET record the warmest winter was 1868/9 at 6.8C (7.2, 5.6, 7.5)

This winter so far is Dec 9.5 and Jan 5.4.  Not sure where Feb sits but Metcheck says it's 5.14 to date, so it could be close to the 1868/9 figure.

The Met Office article refers to a record starting in 1910, so not CET

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2016/winter-stats

This and last month is what I would call bog standard mild months around here, typical of some of the winters of the 1990s and 2000s eg 1998-99 and 2003-04. 1997-98 wasn't that spectacularly mild overall until that two to three week period in February. 

I suppose you could argue that this winter has been the inverse of 1997-98. 

When the MetO post their monthly summaries they also subdivide the UK figures & I think I remember England & Wales is one of those. Selecting E & W may imply that other outcomes are not, or not necessarily, on track for a record including CET.

Out of curiosity which NW (England) locations have had temperatures in double figures most days? That would be remarkable.

It has been exceptionally mild here.  December was milder than many Mays.  January (apart from one week) was wet mild, exceptionally so at times, and  windy.  February has been far more bog standard, with a cool dry finish with even one or two frosts!

Though I have yet to see a flake of snow IMBY since April 2013.  Truly frightening.

Yes, not a flake here either WI this winter. Perhaps that'll beat 1869 if the record is missed although I can't imagine there were that many pre-electronic weather correspondences going on locally to find out; the beauty of this forum.

The CET mildest winter record (vs 1868/9) is too close to call at the moment looks like depending on a combination of the CET of the last 4 days of this month plus any month-end adjustments to teh Feb 2016 provisional data which may be made. The 1868/9 record is 6.74C when calculated directly from the daily stats

On the other hand the England and Wales record (going back to 1910) is going to be a slam dunk this month. The previous record was 2007 at 6.18C. Unlike the CET, the MetO only publish monthly stats for this on their websites but Dec 2015+Jan 2016 were already giving 7.3C so it only needs Feb 2016 to be higher than 3.94C when it gets issued. I would currently estimate a figure slightly under Jan 2016 which was 5.3C (say 5.0C) which would give a 2015/6 figure of 6.53 for E&W

Incidentally the UK record figure including Scotland and NI (5.81 in 1989) does not look like falling showing that Scotland and NI have spent  more time in the colder air this winter than further south. This would need the UK figure for Feb 2016 to be just over 5.0C which is unlikely

Lanky do you (or anybody ) know which recording stations in Wales are used to create the figure?

We have had more sub -3C days here too, although my garden is not-quite a hollow; but then, so it was I previous winters. Perhaps the wind has been lighter/ sky less cloudy.

I'm only assuming but isn't it the ones on here that are still open

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate-historic/#?tab=climateHistoric

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/about/archives

Thanks; I remember for a time that CET was derived from certain selected stations and if it's all current stations in Wales, the higher resolution for EW would offer a truer picture.

The MetO UK network gives a more general picture of the UK overall and regional variations but only back to 1910

The CET is just 3 stations in the middle of England ("ish") but goes back to 1659 so much more useful for long term analysis

Jan and Feb this year have been average but the incredible data for Dec 2015 is such that even two average months may still give us the overall record going back over 350 years

There were 18 days in December 2015 with a mean CET over 10C. No other entire winter let alone just one month  has managed over 10 days over 10C since the start of daily recording in 1772

It seems like milking it to claim mildest winter ever on the basis of one freaky 30 day period, which was mainly exceptionally mild in the south..
February will be below average here, January was +1C and December +3.7C 

Quickly checking I see data on your weather site only goes back to 2009? So, is your average temperature measured over 7 years or more than that?

Surely it's just whatever the 91 days of winter give as an average?  Otherwise it would be like saying that a really cold winter that had just one remarkably cold month was also 'milking it'.

It's interesting how our expectations and understanding of an 'average month' have changed, isn't it?

The average mean for January for the CET record is 3.3C.  For February it is 3.9C.

Even taking the last 30 years you get 4.6 (Jan) and 4.7 (Feb), so even these two months are going to be above the recent average and well above the long-run CET figures.