Apologies for being a bit late with this. Here is the March thread. Spring is now upon us but will the weather be in a Springlike mood?

Please place your CET predictions in this thread. Deadline for entries without incurring any penalty is 23:59 on Monday evening (29th). Entries will be accepted until 23:59 on the 2nd.

March historic data summary

Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.

Long run averages:
1971-2000: 6.3C
1981-2010: 6.6C
1996-2015: 6.6C

March has generally been a warm month in recent times. The CET has reached 7C or more 11 times in the last 19 years but only twice in the last 6 years. March 2013 was of course very cold at just 2.7C. The previous year, 2012 was very mild at 8.3C. 

Here is a chart of the March CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average

Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment.

GEFS (850 and 2m temps)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

Lots of scatter by the end of the run - could stay cool or turn warmer

ECM
https://meteoijsselmuiden.nl/knmipluim

Gradually warming up as we approach mid month

Met office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/t/i/A3_plots-temp-MAM_v1.pdf

Contingency planners forecast suggests a fairly average March with colder and warmer spells largely cancelling each other out.

Pattern matching (JFF)Here is a first look at the February CET.
As mentioned recently in the February thread, most March's that followed a mild winter were also mild. If we look at years since 1950 where December, January and February were all more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean then all bar one of the following March's were also very mild:

1957 9.2C (warmest March ever)
1989 7.5C
1995 5.6C
1998 7.9C
2007 7.2C
2014 7.6C

However all of these years saw the February CET well above 5C. This year February has been the coldest of the winter months and the current outlook for the first part of March is relatively cool. So the first half of March could well be below average but I suspect the second half may be much warmer. So maybe we will see 7C or more this year as well? 

Here is a first look at the March CET

A mild first day but generally chilly over the first 10-12 days.

6.0c. For me please.

5.7 please

Interesting that up to the 10th the 1971-2000 mean is higher than the 1981-2010, before the lines cross.

March this year will be 5.2C says I.

Thanks again GW and for the annual CET challenge as well.

6.0C for me please

6.37c thanks.

6.1c please

The start of a long period of below average temps has begun so I`ll go for 4.8c

6.4c please. 

I'll go with 5.9c please  - chilly but not noticeably so I reckon 

I'll go for

6.0C

7.05c please

I'm going for a chilly 4.6 C 

5.9c for me, thanks.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gary

5.8C for me please...

I'll go for 6.8c please.

Thank you.

6.85c gradually warming up after a cool start.