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Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 September 2016 12:21:58

Hello folks,


Here's the week ahead forecast video: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/forecasts.html


Here's the traditional Written Thoughts: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html


Back to "normal" September weather.


Will have the CFS Six Month Look-Ahead (JFF) @ GWV this evening - This one takes us from October to March.


Tomorrow it's the third update for Winter 2016/17.


Thanks as ever for your support and to Brian and the Mods for making it happen! 


EDIT 1: Here's the CFS six months look-ahead for  September 2016: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/catchup.html


EDIT 2: Here's the third winter 2016/17 update: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter2016-17-forecast-uk.php


 


 


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
ARTzeman
17 September 2016 16:13:43

Thank You Gavin ....   Nice to be normal ...






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
17 September 2016 17:58:48

^^^^^


Thanks ART! 


Here's the CFS Six Months Look-Ahead (JFF) for September: http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Dougie
17 September 2016 21:54:37

Good stuff Gavin, thanks.


Ha'way the lads
schmee
17 September 2016 22:05:33
Thank you Gavin.👍🏼
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
Gooner
18 September 2016 08:19:36


^^^^^


Thanks ART! 


Here's the CFS Six Months Look-Ahead (JFF) for September: http://www.gavsweathervids.com


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Cheers Gav


After last Winters dross, I'd take that .


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


idj20
18 September 2016 08:22:50

Cheers as always, Mr GP. Slow and gentle, just how I like it at this time of the year.


Folkestone Harbour. 
Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
18 September 2016 09:05:20

^^^^^^


Thanks guys! 


Here's the third Winter 2016/17 update;


http://www.gavsweathervids.com/


Picks up straight where the second update left off with more ENSO analogues. We also look at things like solar activity, Arctic sea ice loss, etc.


Will add this to the Winter updates page later with a written summary of everything discussed for anybody that can't watch the video.


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Solar Cycles
18 September 2016 09:05:32
Been away for a few days and come back to the holy grail of winter charts. 😃

So at the moment we have the GLOSEA5, EC SEASONAL, AND THE CFS all going for an cold start to winter. What could possibly go wrong at this stage.😜
Gooner
18 September 2016 11:14:45

Been away for a few days and come back to the holy grail of winter charts. 😃

So at the moment we have the GLOSEA5, EC SEASONAL, AND THE CFS all going for an cold start to winter. What could possibly go wrong at this stage.😜

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 



Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gavin P
  • Gavin P
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
18 September 2016 18:45:31

^^^^^


Thanks guys! 


SC, what could go wrong indeed! Have got the first seasonal model round-up coming up next week. Could make for interesting viewing. 


Have added the third winter update to the winter updates page


http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter2016-17-forecast-uk.php


There's a written report if you can't watch the video.


And with that we're done for this weekend!


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
ARTzeman
18 September 2016 20:52:16

Think this is a slow start for any sign of a winter that we could wish for.. Middle of October I think the change will come about...






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Twister
19 September 2016 10:35:25
Thanks Gavin. Interesting CFS update. I agree that such a northern blocking anomaly favours a colder than average set up for the UK, although I guess that it could be a case of November's mild weather extending into December for a time before the blocking delivers the cold weather, so averages don't always paint the full picture! Jan looks promising for a battleground too with that southerly jet. All in la la land anyway!

Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL
Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)
Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39
Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)
"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)

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