[quote=Saint Snow;939300]

Is exactly the point.

I'd be interested to know if there've been similar periods of what is, after all, just a couple of decades with a reduced occurrence of winter easterlies, because it seems that people who are normally statistically sound and have a fantastic understanding of the weather, are cutting corners before concluding that we're in some sort of weird new era of winters.

As I've said before, even with a lack of winter easterlies it hasn't stopped many areas of the UK experiencing what has been, since the turn of the century at least, a variable but overall pretty average collective of winters (and certainly better than the 87-99 period)

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The figures suggest otherwise Saint, apart from the cold winter months around the turn of the decade that we recall well.

As Darren has said this run of winters without mid-winter easterlies is unprecedented.

If someone says they expect a very mild winter and anything else is a bonus then I accept that. Similarly if someone says there is no such thing as the modern winter but produces evidence to back it up then I accept that argument. But you can't have both those positions. 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

4 year gap now since proper winter spells (as this winter hasn't happened yet). 1988-1990 inclusive was, true, only a 3 year gap. But then, the modern winter drum has been beaten for at least two (since I joined TWO) meaning there was only a two year gap. Reading posts makes me think it's an even more established folk tale.

To see why this is just another stretch in a chaotic sequence of stretches, let's look back at things in the south- after all, this is the least likely place to enjoy 'proper' winters- since the 70s. A little flourish at the start of February 1976. Then there was 1978,1979. Two more dearths until winter 1982 (the February and April 1981 events were not very useful).

We were a bit spoilt in 1985-1987 but had to wait until February 1991 and then February 1994- the latter, a pathetic one day event. There were bits in 1996 and 1997 but apart from a few end of December flourishes around the turn of the century, a long, long run without anything.

The problem with this MW garb is that 2009, 2010 and 2011 happened- must have scared the trews off of MW devotees- with 2013 coming close behind. I estimate the number of converts to this myth or false god would be 50% higher if it weren't for this substantial fly in one's MW ointment.

This year there's going to be some reportable cold and some worthwhile snow. If I'm wrong, I know it'll be OK because it's OK to post unsubstantiated modern winter claims. They might have been politely asked to go elsewhere, but they're back!

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

I don't think winter 2014-15 was too bad, it wasn't the best but it was much better than the 3 other winters in that period. I wouldn't call a poor winter as others have said not for this locale.

The CET for that winter was actually colder than 3 winters of the 1960s.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

There is no such thing as the modern winter by the simple fact there is no OFFICIAL definition of that term.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

Could someone give Ian his own thread please so we can have a proper discussion about the coming winter rather than listening to a “debate” on “modern winter” which is circular, tedious, repetitive and unprovable?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I think anyone who claims to view winter prospects with an open mind these days is being disingenuous.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Well not officially of course, though we all know the numbers and the change in synoptics. I think anyone who claims to view winter prospects with an open mind these days is being disingenuous.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Not any more so, IMHO, than anyone who views a season that hasn't yet happened with a closed mind and claims to know virtually for sure what will happen as if they own a crystal ball.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Well My crystal ball is continuing to suggest something considerably different to what we've seen in the last few years. I'm using the same crystal ball that foresaw the record mild December of 2015 😀😄😉

Things just have been feeling different all along this autumn so far. I have no reason to change my feelings. Plus with nearly all the long range models going quite mild or very mild that's unusual too. I get a sneaky feeling winter will be memorable this time around.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

With all due respect Ian, you came a cropper with that two dimensional thinking in 2009.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

With all due respect Ian, you came a cropper with that two dimensional thinking in 2009.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

As usual, winter predictions months out is a mugs game but don't be drawn in by the current run of brief northerly blasts that seem to be a theme of this November as the first autumn on TWO (November 2001) was very similar and despite a few cold spells in December the winter itself was very zonal and mild.

I see some optimistic talk regarding winter 2018 creeping in and I am not sure its justified.

Andy

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock